FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr Results

	FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr
Num Simulations	17100 (incomplete)
Start Time	2026/05/12 22:19:07 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds	1778624347993
Duration	10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?	false
Trigger Ruptures	(none)
Config Generated With	u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-time 1778624347993 --fss-index 199642 --nodes 14 --num-simulations 100000 --hpc-site SDSC_EXPANSE --output-dir /expanse/lustre/projects/usc143/abhatthal/ucerf3/u3etas_sim/scenarios/expanse-scenario-fss199642-n14-s100000-t1778624347993

Probabilities Summary Table
Magnitude Number Distribution
Hazard Change Over Time
Trigger Rupture Fault Map
Trigger Rupture Depth Map
Fault Distances To Triggers
Individual Simulated Catalog Maps
Section Participation
Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions
Gridded Nucleation
JSON Input File

Probabilities Summary Table

(top)

Magnitude	1 Hour Prob	1 Day Prob	1 Week Prob	1 Month Prob	1 Year Prob	10 Year Prob
M≥4	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]
M≥4.5	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]
M≥5	0.999 (99.94%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[99.89% 99.97%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]
M≥5.5	0.892 (89.15%)	0.996 (99.63%)	1.000 (99.96%)	1.000 (99.98%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[88.67% 89.61%]	[99.52% 99.71%]	[99.91% 99.98%]	[99.94% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]	[99.97% 100.00%]
M≥6	0.414 (41.36%)	0.736 (73.59%)	0.849 (84.90%)	0.900 (89.98%)	0.950 (94.98%)	0.974 (97.44%)
95% Conf	[40.62% 42.10%]	[72.92% 74.25%]	[84.35% 85.43%]	[89.52% 90.43%]	[94.64% 95.30%]	[97.19% 97.67%]
M≥6.5	0.172 (17.17%)	0.370 (36.95%)	0.474 (47.38%)	0.538 (53.78%)	0.632 (63.16%)	0.699 (69.87%)
95% Conf	[16.61% 17.75%]	[36.23% 37.68%]	[46.63% 48.13%]	[53.03% 54.53%]	[62.43% 63.89%]	[69.18% 70.56%]
M≥7	0.033 (3.27%)	0.073 (7.27%)	0.096 (9.65%)	0.115 (11.46%)	0.143 (14.31%)	0.166 (16.58%)
95% Conf	[3.01% 3.55%]	[6.89% 7.67%]	[9.21% 10.10%]	[10.98% 11.95%]	[13.79% 14.85%]	[16.03% 17.15%]
M≥7.5	0.011 (1.13%)	0.024 (2.43%)	0.032 (3.20%)	0.037 (3.71%)	0.045 (4.46%)	0.052 (5.19%)
95% Conf	[0.98% 1.30%]	[2.21% 2.68%]	[2.94% 3.48%]	[3.43% 4.00%]	[4.16% 4.78%]	[4.87% 5.54%]
M≥7.8	5.64E-3 (0.56%)	0.011 (1.09%)	0.013 (1.34%)	0.015 (1.50%)	0.018 (1.78%)	0.020 (2.04%)
95% Conf	[0.46% 0.69%]	[0.94% 1.26%]	[1.18% 1.53%]	[1.33% 1.70%]	[1.59% 1.99%]	[1.84% 2.27%]
M≥8	1.70E-3 (0.17%)	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	4.50E-3 (0.45%)	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	7.19E-3 (0.72%)
95% Conf	[0.12% 0.25%]	[0.28% 0.46%]	[0.36% 0.57%]	[0.42% 0.64%]	[0.50% 0.75%]	[0.60% 0.86%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 17100 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 17100 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 17100 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 17100 catalogs
10 yr Probability (thin red line): 10 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
10 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 17100 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	10 yr Probability	10 yr Prob 95% Conf	10 yr Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	22687.663	17967.000	39963.000	21191.000	19654.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	10530.530
M≥2.6	18065.705	14308.000	31804.000	16879.000	15233.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	8384.555
M≥2.7	14378.558	11383.000	25372.000	13433.000	13500.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	6672.996
M≥2.8	11438.806	9049.000	20142.000	10685.000	10423.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	5308.601
M≥2.9	9097.243	7189.000	16038.000	8499.000	8650.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	4221.458
M≥3	7232.567	5709.000	12698.000	6760.000	6619.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	3356.055
M≥3.1	5749.127	4530.000	10100.000	5374.000	5076.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	2667.617
M≥3.2	4569.135	3593.000	8037.000	4271.000	4086.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	2120.222
M≥3.3	3630.770	2852.000	6387.000	3395.000	3327.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	1684.824
M≥3.4	2884.618	2262.000	5080.000	2697.000	2628.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	1338.546
M≥3.5	2291.337	1787.000	4038.000	2142.000	2023.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	1063.276
M≥3.6	1819.854	1416.000	3222.000	1702.000	1647.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	844.669
M≥3.7	1445.064	1119.000	2552.000	1352.000	1248.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	670.752
M≥3.8	1147.271	885.000	2035.000	1074.000	1035.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	532.611
M≥3.9	910.786	698.000	1616.000	853.000	829.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	422.860
M≥4	722.856	549.000	1283.000	677.000	647.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	335.605
M≥4.1	573.657	433.000	1013.000	538.000	515.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	266.413
M≥4.2	454.880	339.000	804.000	427.000	416.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	211.296
M≥4.3	360.593	266.000	639.000	338.000	322.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	167.501
M≥4.4	285.730	208.000	505.000	269.000	247.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	132.795
M≥4.5	226.330	162.000	404.000	213.000	217.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	105.206
M≥4.6	179.133	126.000	322.000	169.000	161.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	83.271
M≥4.7	141.601	97.000	255.000	133.000	121.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	65.842
M≥4.8	111.839	75.000	202.000	105.000	100.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	52.038
M≥4.9	88.172	57.000	161.000	83.000	79.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	41.048
M≥5	69.339	43.000	128.000	65.000	62.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	32.297
M≥5.1	54.451	33.000	101.000	51.000	48.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	25.399
M≥5.2	42.575	24.000	80.000	40.000	40.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	19.889
M≥5.3	33.165	18.000	63.000	31.000	31.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	15.534
M≥5.4	25.683	13.000	49.000	24.000	22.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	12.070
M≥5.5	19.718	9.000	39.000	19.000	17.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	9.294
M≥5.6	14.999	6.000	30.000	14.000	13.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	7.105
M≥5.7	11.243	4.000	23.000	11.000	9.000	1.000 (99.99%)	[99.95% 100.00%]	0.803 (80.30%)	5.352
M≥5.8	8.244	2.000	18.000	8.000	7.000	0.999 (99.92%)	[99.86% 99.95%]	0.803 (80.30%)	3.965
M≥5.9	5.863	1.000	14.000	5.000	5.000	0.994 (99.42%)	[99.29% 99.53%]	0.803 (80.30%)	2.858
M≥6	4.188	0.000	11.000	4.000	3.000	0.974 (97.44%)	[97.19% 97.67%]	0.803 (80.30%)	2.082
M≥6.1	2.978	0.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	0.935 (93.51%)	[93.13% 93.87%]	0.802 (80.25%)	1.520
M≥6.2	2.251	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.889 (88.88%)	[88.39% 89.34%]	0.800 (79.95%)	1.201
M≥6.3	1.726	0.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.823 (82.33%)	[81.75% 82.90%]	0.773 (77.30%)	0.969
M≥6.4	1.379	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.769 (76.92%)	[76.28% 77.55%]	0.736 (73.57%)	0.791
M≥6.5	1.110	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.699 (69.87%)	[69.18% 70.56%]	0.676 (67.64%)	0.654
M≥6.6	0.771	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.572 (57.18%)	[56.44% 57.92%]	0.560 (55.95%)	0.462
M≥6.7	0.624	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.489 (48.85%)	[48.10% 49.61%]	0.478 (47.84%)	0.376
M≥6.8	0.555	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.453 (45.34%)	[44.59% 46.09%]	0.446 (44.56%)	0.340
M≥6.9	0.239	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.200 (20.04%)	[19.44% 20.65%]	0.192 (19.25%)	0.139
M≥7	0.193	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.166 (16.58%)	[16.03% 17.15%]	0.160 (16.04%)	0.114
M≥7.1	0.164	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.144 (14.35%)	[13.83% 14.89%]	0.140 (14.02%)	0.098
M≥7.2	0.111	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.100 (9.96%)	[9.52% 10.42%]	0.097 (9.73%)	0.069
M≥7.3	0.087	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.079 (7.94%)	[7.54% 8.36%]	0.078 (7.85%)	0.054
M≥7.4	0.065	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.062 (6.15%)	[5.80% 6.53%]	0.061 (6.12%)	0.041
M≥7.5	0.055	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.052 (5.19%)	[4.87% 5.54%]	0.052 (5.18%)	0.035
M≥7.6	0.037	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.036 (3.60%)	[3.33% 3.90%]	0.036 (3.60%)	0.024
M≥7.7	0.025	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.025 (2.46%)	[2.24% 2.71%]	0.025 (2.46%)	0.016
M≥7.8	0.021	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.021 (2.05%)	[1.85% 2.28%]	0.021 (2.05%)	0.014
M≥7.9	0.015	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.015 (1.46%)	[1.28% 1.65%]	0.015 (1.46%)	9.53E-3
M≥8	7.19E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.19E-3 (0.72%)	[0.60% 0.86%]	7.19E-3 (0.72%)	4.62E-3
M≥8.1	2.16E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.16E-3 (0.22%)	[0.15% 0.30%]	2.16E-3 (0.22%)	1.17E-3
M≥8.2	5.85E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.85E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.11%]	5.85E-4 (0.06%)	4.68E-4
M≥8.3	1.17E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.17E-4 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.05%]	1.17E-4 (0.01%)	1.17E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 17100 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 17100 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 17100 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 17100 catalogs
1 yr Probability (thin red line): 1 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 17100 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 yr Probability	1 yr Prob 95% Conf	1 yr Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	17853.487	14556.000	29881.000	16779.000	16626.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	9324.049
M≥2.6	14216.141	11574.000	23775.000	13363.000	12962.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	7424.016
M≥2.7	11314.537	9208.000	18908.000	10640.000	10719.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	5908.515
M≥2.8	9001.383	7322.000	15036.000	8468.000	8097.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	4700.501
M≥2.9	7158.630	5817.000	11966.000	6733.000	6380.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	3737.840
M≥3	5691.362	4614.000	9528.000	5352.000	5192.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	2971.576
M≥3.1	4523.891	3664.000	7570.000	4255.000	4065.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	2362.025
M≥3.2	3595.344	2905.000	6005.000	3382.000	3304.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	1877.339
M≥3.3	2857.095	2306.000	4774.000	2688.000	2608.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	1491.862
M≥3.4	2269.810	1825.000	3796.000	2137.000	2100.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	1185.170
M≥3.5	1803.085	1444.000	3010.000	1699.000	1601.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	941.430
M≥3.6	1432.125	1142.000	2399.000	1349.000	1289.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	747.906
M≥3.7	1137.188	901.000	1901.000	1071.000	1061.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	593.926
M≥3.8	902.862	711.000	1521.000	850.000	824.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	471.626
M≥3.9	716.806	560.000	1205.000	675.000	645.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	374.479
M≥4	568.832	441.000	960.000	536.000	508.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	297.213
M≥4.1	451.473	346.000	762.000	426.000	402.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	235.938
M≥4.2	358.059	271.000	607.000	338.000	328.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	187.135
M≥4.3	283.853	212.000	483.000	268.000	255.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	148.362
M≥4.4	224.979	166.000	383.000	213.000	210.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	117.633
M≥4.5	178.214	129.000	307.000	169.000	165.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	93.190
M≥4.6	141.061	100.000	243.000	134.000	129.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	73.770
M≥4.7	111.521	77.000	194.000	106.000	100.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	58.330
M≥4.8	88.104	59.000	154.000	84.000	82.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	46.103
M≥4.9	69.453	45.000	122.000	66.000	66.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	36.366
M≥5	54.625	34.000	97.000	52.000	52.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	28.623
M≥5.1	42.928	25.000	78.000	41.000	39.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	22.528
M≥5.2	33.574	19.000	61.000	32.000	31.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	17.644
M≥5.3	26.181	14.000	49.000	25.000	23.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	13.794
M≥5.4	20.299	10.000	39.000	19.000	19.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	10.725
M≥5.5	15.604	7.000	30.000	15.000	13.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	8.271
M≥5.6	11.892	5.000	24.000	11.000	10.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.739 (73.86%)	6.330
M≥5.7	8.928	3.000	19.000	8.000	7.000	1.000 (99.96%)	[99.91% 99.98%]	0.739 (73.86%)	4.772
M≥5.8	6.563	2.000	15.000	6.000	5.000	0.997 (99.65%)	[99.55% 99.73%]	0.739 (73.86%)	3.541
M≥5.9	4.688	1.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	0.984 (98.37%)	[98.16% 98.55%]	0.739 (73.86%)	2.560
M≥6	3.367	0.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	0.950 (94.98%)	[94.64% 95.30%]	0.739 (73.86%)	1.872
M≥6.1	2.412	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.894 (89.37%)	[88.89% 89.82%]	0.738 (73.81%)	1.373
M≥6.2	1.841	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.834 (83.36%)	[82.79% 83.91%]	0.735 (73.53%)	1.090
M≥6.3	1.431	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.759 (75.93%)	[75.28% 76.57%]	0.707 (70.71%)	0.884
M≥6.4	1.150	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.702 (70.16%)	[69.46% 70.84%]	0.668 (66.82%)	0.722
M≥6.5	0.932	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.632 (63.16%)	[62.43% 63.89%]	0.612 (61.16%)	0.598
M≥6.6	0.653	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.507 (50.69%)	[49.94% 51.44%]	0.496 (49.65%)	0.424
M≥6.7	0.529	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.431 (43.09%)	[42.35% 43.84%]	0.422 (42.25%)	0.344
M≥6.8	0.474	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.399 (39.91%)	[39.17% 40.65%]	0.393 (39.29%)	0.312
M≥6.9	0.202	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.174 (17.36%)	[16.79% 17.93%]	0.168 (16.77%)	0.126
M≥7	0.163	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.143 (14.31%)	[13.79% 14.85%]	0.139 (13.92%)	0.104
M≥7.1	0.138	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.123 (12.34%)	[11.85% 12.84%]	0.121 (12.10%)	0.089
M≥7.2	0.095	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.086 (8.57%)	[8.15% 9.00%]	0.084 (8.40%)	0.063
M≥7.3	0.075	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.069 (6.86%)	[6.49% 7.25%]	0.068 (6.79%)	0.050
M≥7.4	0.056	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.053 (5.29%)	[4.96% 5.64%]	0.053 (5.26%)	0.037
M≥7.5	0.047	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.045 (4.46%)	[4.16% 4.78%]	0.045 (4.46%)	0.032
M≥7.6	0.032	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.031 (3.08%)	[2.82% 3.35%]	0.031 (3.08%)	0.022
M≥7.7	0.021	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.021 (2.10%)	[1.89% 2.33%]	0.021 (2.10%)	0.015
M≥7.8	0.018	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.018 (1.79%)	[1.60% 2.00%]	0.018 (1.79%)	0.013
M≥7.9	0.013	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.013 (1.25%)	[1.09% 1.43%]	0.013 (1.25%)	8.77E-3
M≥8	6.14E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.50% 0.75%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	4.27E-3
M≥8.1	1.75E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.75E-3 (0.18%)	[0.12% 0.25%]	1.75E-3 (0.18%)	9.94E-4
M≥8.2	4.09E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.09%]	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	2.92E-4
M≥8.3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 17100 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 17100 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 17100 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 17100 catalogs
1 mo Probability (thin red line): 1 month probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 mo Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 17100 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 mo Probability	1 mo Prob 95% Conf	1 mo Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	12977.080	10940.000	20561.000	12282.000	11615.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	7773.974
M≥2.6	10333.402	8701.000	16351.000	9781.000	9284.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	6189.857
M≥2.7	8224.262	6917.000	13024.000	7785.000	7210.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	4926.230
M≥2.8	6542.794	5496.000	10376.000	6195.000	6043.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	3919.041
M≥2.9	5203.345	4365.000	8236.000	4928.000	4820.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	3116.507
M≥3	4136.824	3464.000	6555.000	3917.000	3760.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	2477.693
M≥3.1	3288.314	2748.000	5210.000	3114.000	2976.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	1969.568
M≥3.2	2613.371	2178.000	4133.000	2476.000	2429.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	1565.435
M≥3.3	2076.819	1724.000	3287.000	1968.000	1897.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	1244.040
M≥3.4	1649.907	1364.000	2617.000	1564.000	1505.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	988.268
M≥3.5	1310.679	1077.000	2080.000	1242.000	1203.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	785.073
M≥3.6	1041.046	850.000	1652.000	988.000	950.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	623.776
M≥3.7	826.741	671.000	1316.000	785.000	756.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	495.396
M≥3.8	656.417	529.000	1046.000	623.000	608.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	393.425
M≥3.9	521.110	416.000	829.000	495.000	478.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	312.355
M≥4	413.525	327.000	660.000	393.000	384.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	247.901
M≥4.1	328.249	256.000	526.000	312.000	302.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	196.816
M≥4.2	260.308	200.000	421.000	248.000	241.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	156.097
M≥4.3	206.356	156.000	336.000	197.000	191.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	123.758
M≥4.4	163.573	121.000	266.000	156.000	148.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	98.120
M≥4.5	129.559	94.000	211.000	124.000	116.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	77.719
M≥4.6	102.584	72.000	168.000	98.000	96.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	61.541
M≥4.7	81.107	56.000	134.000	77.000	77.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	48.661
M≥4.8	64.078	42.000	107.000	61.000	57.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	38.461
M≥4.9	50.515	32.000	86.000	48.000	47.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	30.331
M≥5	39.742	24.000	69.000	38.000	37.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	23.874
M≥5.1	31.246	18.000	54.000	30.000	27.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	18.784
M≥5.2	24.444	13.000	44.000	23.000	23.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	14.714
M≥5.3	19.079	9.000	35.000	18.000	17.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	11.509
M≥5.4	14.809	7.000	28.000	14.000	13.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	8.954
M≥5.5	11.406	4.000	23.000	11.000	10.000	1.000 (99.98%)	[99.94% 100.00%]	0.647 (64.74%)	6.920
M≥5.6	8.703	3.000	18.000	8.000	7.000	1.000 (99.95%)	[99.90% 99.98%]	0.647 (64.74%)	5.303
M≥5.7	6.546	2.000	14.000	6.000	5.000	0.996 (99.61%)	[99.51% 99.70%]	0.647 (64.74%)	4.001
M≥5.8	4.830	1.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	0.986 (98.64%)	[98.46% 98.81%]	0.647 (64.74%)	2.979
M≥5.9	3.469	0.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	0.956 (95.64%)	[95.32% 95.94%]	0.647 (64.74%)	2.164
M≥6	2.515	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.900 (89.98%)	[89.52% 90.43%]	0.647 (64.74%)	1.593
M≥6.1	1.823	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.820 (82.01%)	[81.43% 82.58%]	0.647 (64.69%)	1.178
M≥6.2	1.413	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.748 (74.84%)	[74.18% 75.48%]	0.644 (64.38%)	0.942
M≥6.3	1.116	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.666 (66.60%)	[65.88% 67.30%]	0.614 (61.40%)	0.768
M≥6.4	0.901	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.606 (60.58%)	[59.85% 61.32%]	0.575 (57.49%)	0.628
M≥6.5	0.732	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.538 (53.78%)	[53.03% 54.53%]	0.521 (52.11%)	0.518
M≥6.6	0.519	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.424 (42.36%)	[41.62% 43.11%]	0.416 (41.60%)	0.370
M≥6.7	0.421	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.359 (35.85%)	[35.14% 36.58%]	0.352 (35.25%)	0.301
M≥6.8	0.379	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.331 (33.12%)	[32.41% 33.83%]	0.327 (32.67%)	0.274
M≥6.9	0.157	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.138 (13.83%)	[13.32% 14.36%]	0.134 (13.44%)	0.109
M≥7	0.127	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.115 (11.46%)	[10.98% 11.95%]	0.112 (11.19%)	0.090
M≥7.1	0.109	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.098 (9.85%)	[9.41% 10.31%]	0.097 (9.69%)	0.077
M≥7.2	0.076	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.069 (6.93%)	[6.56% 7.32%]	0.068 (6.80%)	0.055
M≥7.3	0.061	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.056 (5.64%)	[5.30% 6.00%]	0.056 (5.61%)	0.044
M≥7.4	0.046	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.044 (4.36%)	[4.06% 4.68%]	0.043 (4.34%)	0.033
M≥7.5	0.038	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.037 (3.71%)	[3.43% 4.00%]	0.037 (3.70%)	0.028
M≥7.6	0.026	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.025 (2.54%)	[2.32% 2.79%]	0.025 (2.54%)	0.019
M≥7.7	0.018	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.018 (1.77%)	[1.58% 1.98%]	0.018 (1.77%)	0.013
M≥7.8	0.015	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.015 (1.51%)	[1.33% 1.71%]	0.015 (1.51%)	0.012
M≥7.9	0.011	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.011 (1.05%)	[0.91% 1.22%]	0.011 (1.05%)	8.01E-3
M≥8	5.15E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	3.80E-3
M≥8.1	1.40E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.40E-3 (0.14%)	[0.09% 0.21%]	1.40E-3 (0.14%)	8.77E-4
M≥8.2	4.09E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.09%]	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	2.92E-4
M≥8.3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 17100 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 17100 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 17100 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 17100 catalogs
1 wk Probability (thin red line): 1 week probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 wk Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 17100 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 wk Probability	1 wk Prob 95% Conf	1 wk Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	10335.553	8890.000	15778.000	9825.000	9484.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	6739.122
M≥2.6	8230.002	7070.000	12579.000	7824.000	7597.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	5366.002
M≥2.7	6550.091	5619.000	10027.000	6229.000	5934.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	4270.559
M≥2.8	5211.127	4460.000	7976.000	4956.000	4717.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	3397.571
M≥2.9	4144.362	3541.000	6346.000	3942.000	3727.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	2701.935
M≥3	3294.914	2807.000	5038.000	3136.000	2999.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	2148.124
M≥3.1	2619.187	2226.000	3992.000	2494.000	2389.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1707.669
M≥3.2	2081.712	1763.000	3179.000	1982.000	1939.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1357.274
M≥3.3	1654.371	1394.000	2528.000	1575.000	1490.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1078.660
M≥3.4	1314.324	1102.000	2015.000	1252.000	1213.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	856.894
M≥3.5	1044.135	870.000	1602.000	996.000	965.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	680.760
M≥3.6	829.402	687.000	1272.000	792.000	786.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	540.878
M≥3.7	658.675	540.000	1016.000	629.000	620.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	429.562
M≥3.8	523.003	424.000	808.000	500.000	479.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	341.139
M≥3.9	415.177	334.000	642.000	397.000	387.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	270.842
M≥4	329.455	262.000	511.000	315.000	305.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	214.938
M≥4.1	261.521	205.000	403.000	250.000	248.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	170.642
M≥4.2	207.439	159.000	323.000	199.000	194.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	135.365
M≥4.3	164.454	124.000	258.000	158.000	154.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	107.314
M≥4.4	130.392	96.000	205.000	125.000	120.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	85.084
M≥4.5	103.304	75.000	163.000	99.000	97.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	67.411
M≥4.6	81.793	57.000	130.000	78.000	76.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	53.374
M≥4.7	64.675	44.000	104.000	62.000	59.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	42.218
M≥4.8	51.078	33.000	83.000	49.000	46.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	33.354
M≥4.9	40.283	25.000	67.000	39.000	36.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	26.315
M≥5	31.702	19.000	54.000	30.000	29.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	20.716
M≥5.1	24.925	14.000	43.000	24.000	23.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	16.301
M≥5.2	19.515	10.000	35.000	19.000	18.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	12.780
M≥5.3	15.245	7.000	28.000	15.000	13.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	10.006
M≥5.4	11.835	5.000	23.000	11.000	11.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	7.785
M≥5.5	9.132	3.000	18.000	9.000	8.000	1.000 (99.96%)	[99.91% 99.98%]	0.579 (57.89%)	6.030
M≥5.6	6.985	2.000	15.000	7.000	6.000	0.998 (99.84%)	[99.76% 99.89%]	0.579 (57.89%)	4.628
M≥5.7	5.270	1.000	12.000	5.000	4.000	0.991 (99.07%)	[98.91% 99.21%]	0.579 (57.89%)	3.500
M≥5.8	3.903	0.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	0.970 (97.04%)	[96.77% 97.28%]	0.579 (57.89%)	2.612
M≥5.9	2.817	0.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	0.923 (92.26%)	[91.84% 92.65%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1.904
M≥6	2.054	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.849 (84.90%)	[84.35% 85.43%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1.407
M≥6.1	1.499	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.755 (75.46%)	[74.80% 76.10%]	0.578 (57.84%)	1.044
M≥6.2	1.173	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.679 (67.90%)	[67.19% 68.60%]	0.575 (57.55%)	0.840
M≥6.3	0.934	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.597 (59.70%)	[58.96% 60.44%]	0.548 (54.77%)	0.687
M≥6.4	0.755	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.538 (53.83%)	[53.08% 54.58%]	0.509 (50.95%)	0.561
M≥6.5	0.613	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.474 (47.38%)	[46.63% 48.13%]	0.458 (45.85%)	0.461
M≥6.6	0.437	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.368 (36.81%)	[36.09% 37.54%]	0.362 (36.20%)	0.332
M≥6.7	0.353	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.310 (30.96%)	[30.27% 31.66%]	0.305 (30.47%)	0.270
M≥6.8	0.320	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.285 (28.53%)	[27.85% 29.21%]	0.282 (28.19%)	0.245
M≥6.9	0.130	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.116 (11.65%)	[11.17% 12.14%]	0.114 (11.37%)	0.097
M≥7	0.106	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.096 (9.65%)	[9.21% 10.10%]	0.095 (9.46%)	0.080
M≥7.1	0.091	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.084 (8.36%)	[7.95% 8.78%]	0.083 (8.26%)	0.069
M≥7.2	0.064	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.059 (5.89%)	[5.54% 6.25%]	0.058 (5.81%)	0.049
M≥7.3	0.052	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.048 (4.82%)	[4.51% 5.16%]	0.048 (4.80%)	0.040
M≥7.4	0.039	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.037 (3.74%)	[3.47% 4.04%]	0.037 (3.73%)	0.030
M≥7.5	0.033	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.032 (3.20%)	[2.94% 3.48%]	0.032 (3.19%)	0.026
M≥7.6	0.023	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.022 (2.22%)	[2.00% 2.45%]	0.022 (2.22%)	0.018
M≥7.7	0.016	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.016 (1.57%)	[1.39% 1.77%]	0.016 (1.57%)	0.013
M≥7.8	0.014	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.014 (1.35%)	[1.19% 1.54%]	0.014 (1.35%)	0.011
M≥7.9	9.36E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	9.36E-3 (0.94%)	[0.80% 1.09%]	9.36E-3 (0.94%)	7.60E-3
M≥8	4.50E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.50E-3 (0.45%)	[0.36% 0.57%]	4.50E-3 (0.45%)	3.57E-3
M≥8.1	1.11E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.11E-3 (0.11%)	[0.07% 0.18%]	1.11E-3 (0.11%)	7.60E-4
M≥8.2	4.09E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.09%]	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	2.92E-4
M≥8.3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 17100 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 17100 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 17100 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 17100 catalogs
1 d Probability (thin red line): 1 day probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 d Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 17100 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 d Probability	1 d Prob 95% Conf	1 d Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	7050.510	6242.000	10258.000	6748.000	6615.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	5183.869
M≥2.6	5614.280	4964.000	8160.000	5378.000	5316.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	4127.718
M≥2.7	4468.200	3941.000	6495.000	4282.000	4171.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	3284.986
M≥2.8	3554.963	3127.000	5156.000	3409.000	3286.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	2613.596
M≥2.9	2827.225	2479.000	4103.000	2711.000	2667.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	2078.461
M≥3	2247.611	1964.000	3259.000	2156.000	2084.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	1652.426
M≥3.1	1786.629	1554.000	2593.000	1715.000	1697.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	1313.547
M≥3.2	1420.016	1229.000	2062.000	1364.000	1347.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	1044.006
M≥3.3	1128.486	970.000	1636.000	1085.000	1073.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	829.753
M≥3.4	896.414	766.000	1302.000	862.000	839.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	659.111
M≥3.5	712.043	603.000	1035.000	685.000	677.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	523.620
M≥3.6	565.698	475.000	819.000	545.000	526.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	416.030
M≥3.7	449.187	374.000	651.000	433.000	427.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	330.358
M≥3.8	356.687	292.000	518.000	344.000	339.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	262.345
M≥3.9	283.123	229.000	411.000	274.000	271.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	208.266
M≥4	224.673	179.000	326.000	217.000	210.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	165.283
M≥4.1	178.424	140.000	259.000	173.000	167.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	131.276
M≥4.2	141.517	108.000	206.000	137.000	133.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	104.132
M≥4.3	112.202	84.000	165.000	109.000	106.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	82.540
M≥4.4	88.966	65.000	131.000	86.000	84.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	65.451
M≥4.5	70.507	50.000	105.000	68.000	64.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	51.866
M≥4.6	55.830	38.000	85.000	54.000	54.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	41.076
M≥4.7	44.142	29.000	69.000	43.000	44.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	32.488
M≥4.8	34.869	21.000	55.000	34.000	34.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	25.670
M≥4.9	27.510	16.000	45.000	27.000	26.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	20.254
M≥5	21.667	12.000	36.000	21.000	19.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	15.954
M≥5.1	17.046	8.000	30.000	16.000	15.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	12.560
M≥5.2	13.365	6.000	24.000	13.000	11.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	9.862
M≥5.3	10.452	4.000	20.000	10.000	9.000	1.000 (99.99%)	[99.96% 100.00%]	0.462 (46.21%)	7.723
M≥5.4	8.130	3.000	16.000	8.000	7.000	0.999 (99.94%)	[99.89% 99.97%]	0.462 (46.21%)	6.021
M≥5.5	6.282	2.000	13.000	6.000	5.000	0.996 (99.63%)	[99.52% 99.71%]	0.462 (46.21%)	4.671
M≥5.6	4.806	1.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	0.988 (98.79%)	[98.61% 98.95%]	0.462 (46.21%)	3.587
M≥5.7	3.633	0.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	0.965 (96.46%)	[96.17% 96.73%]	0.462 (46.21%)	2.716
M≥5.8	2.693	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.916 (91.63%)	[91.20% 92.04%]	0.462 (46.21%)	2.026
M≥5.9	1.958	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.835 (83.54%)	[82.98% 84.09%]	0.462 (46.21%)	1.483
M≥6	1.439	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.736 (73.59%)	[72.92% 74.25%]	0.462 (46.21%)	1.102
M≥6.1	1.064	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.631 (63.15%)	[62.42% 63.87%]	0.462 (46.16%)	0.824
M≥6.2	0.844	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.554 (55.42%)	[54.67% 56.17%]	0.459 (45.94%)	0.667
M≥6.3	0.684	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.479 (47.89%)	[47.14% 48.64%]	0.435 (43.52%)	0.549
M≥6.4	0.549	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.425 (42.55%)	[41.81% 43.30%]	0.401 (40.12%)	0.444
M≥6.5	0.447	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.370 (36.95%)	[36.23% 37.68%]	0.358 (35.79%)	0.365
M≥6.6	0.323	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.283 (28.30%)	[27.63% 28.99%]	0.279 (27.87%)	0.264
M≥6.7	0.262	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.236 (23.62%)	[22.99% 24.27%]	0.233 (23.29%)	0.214
M≥6.8	0.238	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.218 (21.81%)	[21.20% 22.44%]	0.216 (21.58%)	0.196
M≥6.9	0.097	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.089 (8.88%)	[8.46% 9.32%]	0.087 (8.71%)	0.079
M≥7	0.079	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.073 (7.27%)	[6.89% 7.67%]	0.071 (7.15%)	0.064
M≥7.1	0.068	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.063 (6.29%)	[5.94% 6.67%]	0.062 (6.23%)	0.056
M≥7.2	0.048	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.045 (4.47%)	[4.17% 4.80%]	0.044 (4.42%)	0.040
M≥7.3	0.039	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.037 (3.67%)	[3.39% 3.96%]	0.036 (3.64%)	0.032
M≥7.4	0.029	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.028 (2.82%)	[2.58% 3.09%]	0.028 (2.81%)	0.024
M≥7.5	0.025	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.024 (2.43%)	[2.21% 2.68%]	0.024 (2.43%)	0.021
M≥7.6	0.018	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.017 (1.74%)	[1.55% 1.95%]	0.017 (1.74%)	0.015
M≥7.7	0.013	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.013 (1.29%)	[1.13% 1.47%]	0.013 (1.29%)	0.011
M≥7.8	0.011	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.011 (1.09%)	[0.95% 1.26%]	0.011 (1.09%)	9.59E-3
M≥7.9	7.31E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.31E-3 (0.73%)	[0.61% 0.87%]	7.31E-3 (0.73%)	6.37E-3
M≥8	3.57E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.28% 0.46%]	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	2.92E-3
M≥8.1	8.19E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	8.19E-4 (0.08%)	[0.05% 0.14%]	8.19E-4 (0.08%)	5.85E-4
M≥8.2	2.34E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.34E-4 (0.02%)	[0.01% 0.06%]	2.34E-4 (0.02%)	1.75E-4
M≥8.3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 17100 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 17100 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 17100 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 17100 catalogs
1 hr Probability (thin red line): 1 hour probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 hr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 17100 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 hr Probability	1 hr Prob 95% Conf	1 hr Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	2538.464	2356.000	2972.000	2487.000	2478.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	2279.605
M≥2.6	2021.485	1869.000	2368.000	1982.000	1987.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	1815.342
M≥2.7	1608.917	1479.000	1890.000	1578.000	1582.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	1444.839
M≥2.8	1280.112	1170.000	1506.000	1256.000	1257.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	1149.597
M≥2.9	1018.164	925.000	1202.000	1000.000	996.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	914.358
M≥3	809.496	729.000	955.000	795.000	794.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	726.954
M≥3.1	643.561	575.000	764.000	632.000	625.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	577.955
M≥3.2	511.463	453.000	610.000	503.000	496.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	459.281
M≥3.3	406.469	356.000	486.000	400.000	393.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	364.999
M≥3.4	322.938	279.000	390.000	318.000	311.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	289.992
M≥3.5	256.565	218.000	311.000	253.000	253.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	230.404
M≥3.6	203.816	171.000	249.000	201.000	197.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	183.017
M≥3.7	161.821	133.000	201.000	159.000	157.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	145.299
M≥3.8	128.515	103.000	162.000	127.000	127.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	115.395
M≥3.9	102.021	80.000	131.000	101.000	102.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	91.629
M≥4	80.939	61.000	106.000	80.000	80.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	72.713
M≥4.1	64.293	47.000	86.000	63.000	62.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	57.758
M≥4.2	51.026	36.000	70.000	50.000	49.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	45.845
M≥4.3	40.457	27.000	57.000	40.000	38.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	36.340
M≥4.4	32.096	20.000	46.000	32.000	32.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	28.827
M≥4.5	25.427	15.000	38.000	25.000	24.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	22.833
M≥4.6	20.155	11.000	31.000	20.000	19.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	18.097
M≥4.7	15.946	8.000	26.000	16.000	15.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	14.312
M≥4.8	12.605	6.000	21.000	12.000	11.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	11.311
M≥4.9	9.944	4.000	18.000	10.000	9.000	1.000 (99.98%)	[99.94% 100.00%]	0.227 (22.73%)	8.921
M≥5	7.839	3.000	15.000	8.000	7.000	0.999 (99.94%)	[99.89% 99.97%]	0.227 (22.73%)	7.032
M≥5.1	6.187	2.000	12.000	6.000	6.000	0.997 (99.67%)	[99.57% 99.75%]	0.227 (22.73%)	5.554
M≥5.2	4.848	1.000	10.000	5.000	4.000	0.989 (98.94%)	[98.77% 99.09%]	0.227 (22.73%)	4.352
M≥5.3	3.797	0.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	0.973 (97.33%)	[97.07% 97.56%]	0.227 (22.73%)	3.413
M≥5.4	2.971	0.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	0.944 (94.39%)	[94.03% 94.73%]	0.227 (22.73%)	2.672
M≥5.5	2.314	0.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	0.892 (89.15%)	[88.67% 89.61%]	0.227 (22.73%)	2.085
M≥5.6	1.777	0.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	0.819 (81.92%)	[81.33% 82.49%]	0.227 (22.73%)	1.605
M≥5.7	1.353	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.726 (72.63%)	[71.96% 73.30%]	0.227 (22.73%)	1.222
M≥5.8	1.019	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.621 (62.06%)	[61.33% 62.79%]	0.227 (22.73%)	0.921
M≥5.9	0.756	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.511 (51.06%)	[50.31% 51.82%]	0.227 (22.73%)	0.686
M≥6	0.568	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.414 (41.36%)	[40.62% 42.10%]	0.227 (22.73%)	0.517
M≥6.1	0.431	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.333 (33.32%)	[32.61% 34.03%]	0.227 (22.69%)	0.394
M≥6.2	0.352	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.281 (28.07%)	[27.40% 28.75%]	0.225 (22.55%)	0.322
M≥6.3	0.291	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.238 (23.81%)	[23.17% 24.45%]	0.213 (21.35%)	0.268
M≥6.4	0.231	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.203 (20.28%)	[19.68% 20.89%]	0.189 (18.92%)	0.213
M≥6.5	0.187	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.172 (17.17%)	[16.61% 17.75%]	0.165 (16.50%)	0.174
M≥6.6	0.137	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.129 (12.85%)	[12.36% 13.37%]	0.126 (12.63%)	0.127
M≥6.7	0.113	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.107 (10.70%)	[10.24% 11.18%]	0.105 (10.53%)	0.105
M≥6.8	0.103	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.098 (9.83%)	[9.39% 10.29%]	0.097 (9.72%)	0.096
M≥6.9	0.042	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.040 (3.98%)	[3.69% 4.28%]	0.039 (3.90%)	0.039
M≥7	0.034	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.033 (3.27%)	[3.01% 3.55%]	0.032 (3.22%)	0.032
M≥7.1	0.030	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.028 (2.85%)	[2.61% 3.11%]	0.028 (2.82%)	0.028
M≥7.2	0.022	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.021 (2.12%)	[1.91% 2.35%]	0.021 (2.10%)	0.021
M≥7.3	0.018	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.017 (1.71%)	[1.52% 1.92%]	0.017 (1.70%)	0.016
M≥7.4	0.013	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.013 (1.30%)	[1.14% 1.49%]	0.013 (1.30%)	0.012
M≥7.5	0.011	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.011 (1.13%)	[0.98% 1.30%]	0.011 (1.13%)	0.011
M≥7.6	8.54E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	8.48E-3 (0.85%)	[0.72% 1.00%]	8.48E-3 (0.85%)	8.01E-3
M≥7.7	6.61E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.61E-3 (0.66%)	[0.55% 0.80%]	6.61E-3 (0.66%)	6.14E-3
M≥7.8	5.67E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.67E-3 (0.57%)	[0.46% 0.69%]	5.67E-3 (0.57%)	5.32E-3
M≥7.9	3.39E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.39E-3 (0.34%)	[0.26% 0.44%]	3.39E-3 (0.34%)	3.27E-3
M≥8	1.70E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.70E-3 (0.17%)	[0.12% 0.25%]	1.70E-3 (0.17%)	1.58E-3
M≥8.1	3.51E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.51E-4 (0.04%)	[0.01% 0.08%]	3.51E-4 (0.04%)	3.51E-4
M≥8.2	5.85E-5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.85E-5 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.04%]	5.85E-5 (0.01%)	5.85E-5
M≥8.3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	0.999 [0.999 - 1.000]	0.999	2.42E-4	4128.37	2.40E-4
1 Day	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	5.79E-3	172.61	5.73E-3
1 Week	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	0.040	25.09	0.039
1 Month	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	0.160	6.25	0.158
1 Year	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	0.880	1.14	0.878
10 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	1.000	1	1.000
30 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	1.000	1 *	1.000
100 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	1.000	1 *	1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	0.411 [0.404 - 0.418]	0.411	2.83E-5	14537.1	2.58E-5
1 Day	0.733 [0.726 - 0.739]	0.732	6.78E-4	1080.05	6.19E-4
1 Week	0.846 [0.841 - 0.852]	0.846	4.74E-3	178.59	4.33E-3
1 Month	0.899 [0.895 - 0.904]	0.897	0.020	44.63	0.018
1 Year	0.959 [0.956 - 0.962]	0.948	0.220	4.37	0.202
10 Years	0.998 [0.997 - 0.998]	0.973	0.914	1.09	0.896
30 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	0.999	1 *	0.999
100 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	1.000	1 *	1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	0.033 [0.030 - 0.035]	0.033	4.92E-6	6626.91	4.51E-6
1 Day	0.072 [0.068 - 0.076]	0.072	1.18E-4	612.6	1.08E-4
1 Week	0.096 [0.092 - 0.101]	0.095	8.26E-4	116.44	7.57E-4
1 Month	0.116 [0.112 - 0.121]	0.113	3.53E-3	32.88	3.24E-3
1 Year	0.177 [0.172 - 0.183]	0.141	0.042	4.21	0.039
10 Years	0.454 [0.451 - 0.458]	0.163	0.348	1.31	0.327
30 Years	0.759 [0.757 - 0.761] *	*	0.712	1.07 *	0.695
100 Years	0.976 [0.975 - 0.976] *	*	0.971	1 *	0.981

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	1.70E-3 [1.16E-3 - 2.47E-3]	1.70E-3	3.75E-7	4522.35	3.19E-7
1 Day	3.58E-3 [2.76E-3 - 4.62E-3]	3.57E-3	9.00E-6	397.27	7.66E-6
1 Week	4.57E-3 [3.64E-3 - 5.72E-3]	4.50E-3	6.30E-5	72.46	5.36E-5
1 Month	5.41E-3 [4.42E-3 - 6.64E-3]	5.15E-3	2.70E-4	20.05	2.30E-4
1 Year	9.40E-3 [8.31E-3 - 0.011]	6.14E-3	3.28E-3	2.86	2.79E-3
10 Years	0.040 [0.039 - 0.042]	7.19E-3	0.033	1.21	0.028
30 Years	0.108 [0.107 - 0.109] *	*	0.102	1.06 *	0.080
100 Years	0.299 [0.298 - 0.300] *	*	0.293	1.02 *	0.244

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

(top)

Trigger Rupture Depth Map

(top)

Fault Distances To Triggers

(top)

Section Name	Strike, Dip, Rake	Hypocenter In Polygon?	Surface In Polygon?	Minimum Surface Distance (km)	Minimum Surface Poly Distance (km)	Minimum Hypo Distance (km)	Minimum Hypo Poly Distance (km)
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	122, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	120, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	135, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (Mojave S)	116, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek)	114, 76, 179	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	290, 58, 174	false	true	0.073	0.000	N/A	N/A
Mission Creek	275, 65, 174	false	true	0.101	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Gorgonio Pass	281, 60, 100	false	true	0.305	0.000	N/A	N/A
Cucamonga	257, 45, 67	false	true	0.313	0.000	N/A	N/A
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	160, 90, -173	false	true	0.462	0.000	N/A	N/A
Pinto Mtn	87, 90, -3	false	true	0.995	0.000	N/A	N/A
Cleghorn	96, 90, 6	false	true	2.598	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	138, 90, 180	false	true	2.987	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (Lytle Creek connector)	135, 90, 179	false	true	4.621	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	133, 90, 180	false	true	10.449	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Gabriel (Extension)	276, 61, -175	false	false	1.751	1.197	N/A	N/A
Burnt Mtn	175, 67, 175	false	false	3.529	0.532	N/A	N/A
North Frontal (West)	80, 49, 80	false	false	4.698	3.696	N/A	N/A
Fontana (Seismicity)	223, 80, 6	false	false	8.882	6.567	N/A	N/A
Blue Cut	87, 90, 4	false	false	8.890	0.556	N/A	N/A
Joshua Tree (Seismicity)	181, 90, 180	false	false	9.545	2.782	N/A	N/A
Eureka Peak	345, 90, -175	false	false	9.956	0.606	N/A	N/A
Clamshell-Sawpit	244, 50, 88	false	false	12.917	12.886	N/A	N/A
North Frontal (East)	104, 41, 71	false	false	14.230	11.188	N/A	N/A
Sierra Madre	288, 53, 78	false	false	16.583	16.547	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	139, 90, 180	false	false	18.587	8.499	N/A	N/A
Elmore Ranch	220, 90, 2	false	false	19.255	9.353	N/A	N/A

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

(top)

These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Duration	p0.0 %-ile	p25.0 %-ile	p50.0 %-ile	p75.0 %-ile	p90.0 %-ile	p95.0 %-ile	p97.5 %-ile	p98.0 %-ile	p99.0 %-ile	p99.5 %-ile	p99.9 %-ile	p99.994152 %-ile
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
10 Year

Section Participation

(top)

Section Participation Plots

(top)

Min Mag	1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 25 of 214 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.6730409	0.298 (29.82%)	[29.13% 30.51%]	0.391 (39.11%)	[38.38% 39.85%]	0.451 (45.11%)	[44.36% 45.86%]	0.537 (53.74%)	[52.99% 54.49%]	0.605 (60.53%)	[59.79% 61.26%]	0.45415205
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.35380116	0.146 (14.58%)	[14.06% 15.12%]	0.194 (19.37%)	[18.79% 19.98%]	0.230 (23.00%)	[22.37% 23.64%]	0.285 (28.54%)	[27.87% 29.23%]	0.328 (32.77%)	[32.06% 33.48%]	0.24152046
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.1194152	0.038 (3.84%)	[3.56% 4.14%]	0.041 (4.12%)	[3.83% 4.43%]	0.043 (4.29%)	[3.99% 4.60%]	0.046 (4.60%)	[4.30% 4.93%]	0.048 (4.84%)	[4.53% 5.18%]	0.0880117
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.11678363	0.054 (5.36%)	[5.03% 5.71%]	0.069 (6.87%)	[6.49% 7.26%]	0.079 (7.87%)	[7.47% 8.29%]	0.094 (9.39%)	[8.96% 9.84%]	0.107 (10.66%)	[10.20% 11.14%]	0.08
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.10526316	0.047 (4.71%)	[4.40% 5.04%]	0.063 (6.27%)	[5.91% 6.65%]	0.072 (7.15%)	[6.77% 7.55%]	0.087 (8.70%)	[8.29% 9.14%]	0.098 (9.79%)	[9.35% 10.25%]	0.074269004
Pinto Mtn	0.08169591	0.029 (2.90%)	[2.66% 3.17%]	0.040 (4.03%)	[3.74% 4.34%]	0.049 (4.92%)	[4.61% 5.26%]	0.066 (6.56%)	[6.20% 6.95%]	0.079 (7.94%)	[7.54% 8.35%]	0.04602339
Mission Creek	0.077309944	0.030 (2.99%)	[2.75% 3.26%]	0.042 (4.18%)	[3.88% 4.49%]	0.050 (4.96%)	[4.65% 5.30%]	0.064 (6.35%)	[5.99% 6.73%]	0.076 (7.57%)	[7.18% 7.98%]	0.0474269
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.063040935	0.027 (2.68%)	[2.45% 2.94%]	0.037 (3.71%)	[3.44% 4.01%]	0.043 (4.31%)	[4.01% 4.63%]	0.054 (5.37%)	[5.04% 5.72%]	0.062 (6.20%)	[5.85% 6.58%]	0.041695908
Imperial	0.060584795	0.025 (2.51%)	[2.28% 2.76%]	0.035 (3.53%)	[3.26% 3.82%]	0.041 (4.11%)	[3.82% 4.42%]	0.052 (5.16%)	[4.83% 5.50%]	0.060 (5.99%)	[5.64% 6.36%]	0.039473683
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev	0.043391813	9.01E-3 (0.90%)	[0.77% 1.06%]	0.015 (1.49%)	[1.32% 1.69%]	0.020 (1.98%)	[1.78% 2.21%]	0.028 (2.81%)	[2.57% 3.07%]	0.038 (3.77%)	[3.49% 4.07%]	0.010701754
Blue Cut	0.03497076	9.18E-3 (0.92%)	[0.78% 1.08%]	0.014 (1.43%)	[1.26% 1.63%]	0.019 (1.91%)	[1.71% 2.13%]	0.026 (2.65%)	[2.42% 2.90%]	0.034 (3.44%)	[3.18% 3.73%]	0.011052632
Cleghorn	0.027017543	9.12E-3 (0.91%)	[0.78% 1.07%]	0.013 (1.33%)	[1.16% 1.51%]	0.017 (1.66%)	[1.48% 1.87%]	0.021 (2.15%)	[1.94% 2.38%]	0.027 (2.70%)	[2.46% 2.95%]	0.014327485
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.019473685	0.011 (1.07%)	[0.92% 1.24%]	0.013 (1.33%)	[1.16% 1.51%]	0.015 (1.48%)	[1.31% 1.67%]	0.017 (1.71%)	[1.52% 1.92%]	0.019 (1.95%)	[1.75% 2.17%]	0.013157895
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.017192982	9.30E-3 (0.93%)	[0.79% 1.09%]	0.011 (1.15%)	[0.99% 1.32%]	0.013 (1.28%)	[1.12% 1.46%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.30% 1.66%]	0.017 (1.68%)	[1.49% 1.89%]	0.011286549
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.015730994	8.36E-3 (0.84%)	[0.71% 0.99%]	0.010 (1.05%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.012 (1.17%)	[1.02% 1.35%]	0.014 (1.36%)	[1.19% 1.54%]	0.016 (1.56%)	[1.38% 1.76%]	0.01
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.015672514	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.50% 0.75%]	8.13E-3 (0.81%)	[0.69% 0.96%]	9.12E-3 (0.91%)	[0.78% 1.07%]	0.012 (1.22%)	[1.06% 1.40%]	0.016 (1.56%)	[1.38% 1.76%]	0.008421052
Burnt Mtn	0.015614036	4.21E-3 (0.42%)	[0.33% 0.53%]	6.02E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	7.54E-3 (0.75%)	[0.63% 0.90%]	0.012 (1.20%)	[1.05% 1.38%]	0.016 (1.56%)	[1.38% 1.76%]	0.0054385965
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.014678363	7.66E-3 (0.77%)	[0.64% 0.91%]	9.65E-3 (0.96%)	[0.83% 1.13%]	0.011 (1.08%)	[0.93% 1.25%]	0.013 (1.26%)	[1.10% 1.44%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.30% 1.66%]	0.009239766
Cucamonga	0.014210526	4.56E-3 (0.46%)	[0.36% 0.57%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.50% 0.75%]	7.89E-3 (0.79%)	[0.66% 0.94%]	0.011 (1.14%)	[0.99% 1.31%]	0.014 (1.42%)	[1.25% 1.61%]	0.007836257
Cleghorn Lake	0.012046783	1.99E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.28%]	3.45E-3 (0.35%)	[0.27% 0.45%]	4.56E-3 (0.46%)	[0.36% 0.57%]	7.13E-3 (0.71%)	[0.60% 0.85%]	0.011 (1.11%)	[0.96% 1.28%]	0.0020467837
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.010584795	5.09E-3 (0.51%)	[0.41% 0.63%]	6.43E-3 (0.64%)	[0.53% 0.78%]	7.19E-3 (0.72%)	[0.60% 0.86%]	8.54E-3 (0.85%)	[0.72% 1.01%]	0.010 (1.03%)	[0.89% 1.20%]	0.0061988304
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.010584795	3.92E-3 (0.39%)	[0.31% 0.50%]	5.03E-3 (0.50%)	[0.40% 0.62%]	6.02E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	8.30E-3 (0.83%)	[0.70% 0.98%]	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.91% 1.23%]	0.005380117
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.010584795	4.21E-3 (0.42%)	[0.33% 0.53%]	5.38E-3 (0.54%)	[0.44% 0.66%]	6.26E-3 (0.63%)	[0.52% 0.76%]	8.48E-3 (0.85%)	[0.72% 1.00%]	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.91% 1.23%]	0.0055555557
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.010409357	3.98E-3 (0.40%)	[0.31% 0.51%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	6.02E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	8.19E-3 (0.82%)	[0.69% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.04%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.005380117
San Gorgonio Pass	0.009590643	3.04E-3 (0.30%)	[0.23% 0.40%]	4.33E-3 (0.43%)	[0.34% 0.55%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	7.37E-3 (0.74%)	[0.62% 0.88%]	9.59E-3 (0.96%)	[0.82% 1.12%]	0.004502924

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 25 of 189 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.5268421	0.240 (24.05%)	[23.41% 24.70%]	0.317 (31.71%)	[31.02% 32.42%]	0.367 (36.74%)	[36.02% 37.47%]	0.441 (44.11%)	[43.37% 44.86%]	0.498 (49.85%)	[49.10% 50.60%]	0.35760233
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.2636842	0.108 (10.80%)	[10.34% 11.27%]	0.146 (14.60%)	[14.07% 15.14%]	0.175 (17.45%)	[16.89% 18.03%]	0.217 (21.67%)	[21.06% 22.30%]	0.248 (24.85%)	[24.20% 25.50%]	0.17982456
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.110467836	0.052 (5.16%)	[4.84% 5.51%]	0.066 (6.65%)	[6.28% 7.04%]	0.076 (7.64%)	[7.25% 8.05%]	0.092 (9.15%)	[8.73% 9.60%]	0.104 (10.39%)	[9.94% 10.86%]	0.075672515
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.09730994	0.045 (4.46%)	[4.16% 4.78%]	0.060 (5.96%)	[5.62% 6.33%]	0.069 (6.87%)	[6.49% 7.26%]	0.084 (8.40%)	[7.99% 8.83%]	0.095 (9.50%)	[9.07% 9.95%]	0.06818713
Mission Creek	0.077309944	0.030 (2.99%)	[2.75% 3.26%]	0.042 (4.18%)	[3.88% 4.49%]	0.050 (4.96%)	[4.65% 5.30%]	0.064 (6.35%)	[5.99% 6.73%]	0.076 (7.57%)	[7.18% 7.98%]	0.0474269
Pinto Mtn	0.07163743	0.026 (2.59%)	[2.36% 2.84%]	0.036 (3.59%)	[3.32% 3.88%]	0.044 (4.37%)	[4.08% 4.69%]	0.058 (5.82%)	[5.48% 6.19%]	0.070 (6.99%)	[6.61% 7.38%]	0.04157895
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.049473684	0.022 (2.24%)	[2.03% 2.48%]	0.030 (3.03%)	[2.78% 3.30%]	0.035 (3.47%)	[3.20% 3.76%]	0.043 (4.27%)	[3.98% 4.59%]	0.049 (4.88%)	[4.56% 5.21%]	0.03368421
Imperial	0.046959065	0.021 (2.06%)	[1.86% 2.29%]	0.028 (2.84%)	[2.60% 3.11%]	0.033 (3.27%)	[3.01% 3.55%]	0.041 (4.06%)	[3.78% 4.37%]	0.046 (4.65%)	[4.34% 4.98%]	0.031578947
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.04233918	0.024 (2.41%)	[2.19% 2.65%]	0.028 (2.83%)	[2.59% 3.09%]	0.031 (3.08%)	[2.83% 3.35%]	0.034 (3.43%)	[3.16% 3.71%]	0.037 (3.70%)	[3.43% 4.00%]	0.029649124
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.019473685	0.011 (1.07%)	[0.92% 1.24%]	0.013 (1.33%)	[1.16% 1.51%]	0.015 (1.48%)	[1.31% 1.67%]	0.017 (1.71%)	[1.52% 1.92%]	0.019 (1.95%)	[1.75% 2.17%]	0.013157895
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.017192982	9.30E-3 (0.93%)	[0.79% 1.09%]	0.011 (1.15%)	[0.99% 1.32%]	0.013 (1.28%)	[1.12% 1.46%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.30% 1.66%]	0.017 (1.68%)	[1.49% 1.89%]	0.011286549
Blue Cut	0.017134503	4.56E-3 (0.46%)	[0.36% 0.57%]	6.73E-3 (0.67%)	[0.56% 0.81%]	9.42E-3 (0.94%)	[0.80% 1.10%]	0.013 (1.32%)	[1.16% 1.51%]	0.017 (1.71%)	[1.52% 1.92%]	0.005263158
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.015730994	8.36E-3 (0.84%)	[0.71% 0.99%]	0.010 (1.05%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.012 (1.17%)	[1.02% 1.35%]	0.014 (1.36%)	[1.19% 1.54%]	0.016 (1.56%)	[1.38% 1.76%]	0.01
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.014678363	7.66E-3 (0.77%)	[0.64% 0.91%]	9.65E-3 (0.96%)	[0.83% 1.13%]	0.011 (1.08%)	[0.93% 1.25%]	0.013 (1.26%)	[1.10% 1.44%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.30% 1.66%]	0.009239766
Cucamonga	0.013976608	4.44E-3 (0.44%)	[0.35% 0.56%]	5.96E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	7.66E-3 (0.77%)	[0.64% 0.91%]	0.011 (1.12%)	[0.97% 1.29%]	0.014 (1.39%)	[1.22% 1.58%]	0.0077192984
Burnt Mtn	0.013216374	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.28% 0.46%]	5.03E-3 (0.50%)	[0.40% 0.62%]	6.26E-3 (0.63%)	[0.52% 0.76%]	9.94E-3 (0.99%)	[0.85% 1.16%]	0.013 (1.32%)	[1.16% 1.51%]	0.004736842
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.0114035085	4.44E-3 (0.44%)	[0.35% 0.56%]	5.67E-3 (0.57%)	[0.46% 0.69%]	6.67E-3 (0.67%)	[0.55% 0.80%]	9.12E-3 (0.91%)	[0.78% 1.07%]	0.011 (1.14%)	[0.99% 1.31%]	0.006140351
Cleghorn	0.010818713	3.33E-3 (0.33%)	[0.25% 0.43%]	5.09E-3 (0.51%)	[0.41% 0.63%]	6.49E-3 (0.65%)	[0.54% 0.78%]	8.42E-3 (0.84%)	[0.71% 0.99%]	0.011 (1.08%)	[0.93% 1.25%]	0.006081871
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.010526316	3.92E-3 (0.39%)	[0.31% 0.50%]	5.03E-3 (0.50%)	[0.40% 0.62%]	6.02E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	8.30E-3 (0.83%)	[0.70% 0.98%]	0.011 (1.05%)	[0.91% 1.22%]	0.005380117
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.010467837	4.09E-3 (0.41%)	[0.32% 0.52%]	5.26E-3 (0.53%)	[0.43% 0.65%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.50% 0.75%]	8.36E-3 (0.84%)	[0.71% 0.99%]	0.010 (1.05%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.005497076
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.010409357	3.98E-3 (0.40%)	[0.31% 0.51%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	6.02E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	8.19E-3 (0.82%)	[0.69% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.04%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.005380117
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.009707603	5.03E-3 (0.50%)	[0.40% 0.62%]	6.32E-3 (0.63%)	[0.52% 0.77%]	7.02E-3 (0.70%)	[0.58% 0.84%]	8.19E-3 (0.82%)	[0.69% 0.97%]	9.65E-3 (0.96%)	[0.83% 1.13%]	0.006140351
San Gorgonio Pass	0.009590643	3.04E-3 (0.30%)	[0.23% 0.40%]	4.33E-3 (0.43%)	[0.34% 0.55%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	7.37E-3 (0.74%)	[0.62% 0.88%]	9.59E-3 (0.96%)	[0.82% 1.12%]	0.004502924
Cleghorn Lake	0.0064327484	1.11E-3 (0.11%)	[0.07% 0.18%]	1.75E-3 (0.18%)	[0.12% 0.25%]	2.22E-3 (0.22%)	[0.16% 0.31%]	3.80E-3 (0.38%)	[0.30% 0.49%]	6.26E-3 (0.63%)	[0.52% 0.76%]	0.0011111111
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev	0.0064327484	7.02E-4 (0.07%)	[0.04% 0.13%]	1.75E-3 (0.18%)	[0.12% 0.25%]	2.87E-3 (0.29%)	[0.21% 0.38%]	4.04E-3 (0.40%)	[0.32% 0.51%]	6.26E-3 (0.63%)	[0.52% 0.76%]	0.0014035088

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 25 of 151 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.08649123	0.039 (3.94%)	[3.65% 4.24%]	0.052 (5.16%)	[4.83% 5.50%]	0.061 (6.07%)	[5.72% 6.44%]	0.074 (7.40%)	[7.01% 7.80%]	0.084 (8.44%)	[8.03% 8.87%]	0.05906433
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.07192983	0.033 (3.27%)	[3.01% 3.55%]	0.043 (4.32%)	[4.02% 4.63%]	0.051 (5.12%)	[4.79% 5.46%]	0.062 (6.19%)	[5.83% 6.56%]	0.070 (6.99%)	[6.62% 7.39%]	0.05011696
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.05883041	0.029 (2.88%)	[2.63% 3.14%]	0.037 (3.70%)	[3.42% 3.99%]	0.043 (4.26%)	[3.96% 4.57%]	0.051 (5.08%)	[4.75% 5.42%]	0.058 (5.81%)	[5.47% 6.18%]	0.040233918
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.051345028	0.025 (2.54%)	[2.31% 2.79%]	0.033 (3.35%)	[3.08% 3.63%]	0.038 (3.82%)	[3.54% 4.12%]	0.045 (4.51%)	[4.21% 4.83%]	0.051 (5.05%)	[4.73% 5.39%]	0.03730994
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.034093566	0.018 (1.76%)	[1.57% 1.97%]	0.023 (2.32%)	[2.10% 2.56%]	0.026 (2.63%)	[2.40% 2.89%]	0.031 (3.06%)	[2.81% 3.33%]	0.034 (3.39%)	[3.12% 3.67%]	0.024678363
Imperial	0.031988304	0.016 (1.61%)	[1.43% 1.81%]	0.022 (2.16%)	[1.95% 2.39%]	0.025 (2.46%)	[2.24% 2.71%]	0.029 (2.88%)	[2.63% 3.14%]	0.032 (3.19%)	[2.93% 3.46%]	0.022923976
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.028830409	0.017 (1.66%)	[1.48% 1.87%]	0.020 (2.01%)	[1.80% 2.23%]	0.022 (2.22%)	[2.01% 2.46%]	0.025 (2.54%)	[2.32% 2.79%]	0.028 (2.82%)	[2.58% 3.08%]	0.019766081
Pinto Mtn	0.0251462	9.24E-3 (0.92%)	[0.79% 1.08%]	0.013 (1.30%)	[1.14% 1.49%]	0.016 (1.59%)	[1.41% 1.79%]	0.021 (2.12%)	[1.91% 2.35%]	0.025 (2.47%)	[2.25% 2.72%]	0.015087719
Mission Creek	0.022631578	8.83E-3 (0.88%)	[0.75% 1.04%]	0.012 (1.22%)	[1.07% 1.40%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.30% 1.67%]	0.019 (1.88%)	[1.68% 2.09%]	0.023 (2.26%)	[2.04% 2.49%]	0.014444444
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.019415205	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.92% 1.23%]	0.013 (1.32%)	[1.16% 1.51%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.30% 1.67%]	0.017 (1.70%)	[1.52% 1.91%]	0.019 (1.94%)	[1.74% 2.16%]	0.013157895
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.016783625	9.30E-3 (0.93%)	[0.79% 1.09%]	0.011 (1.15%)	[0.99% 1.32%]	0.013 (1.28%)	[1.12% 1.46%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.30% 1.66%]	0.017 (1.68%)	[1.49% 1.89%]	0.011286549
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.015730994	8.36E-3 (0.84%)	[0.71% 0.99%]	0.010 (1.05%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.012 (1.17%)	[1.02% 1.35%]	0.014 (1.36%)	[1.19% 1.54%]	0.016 (1.56%)	[1.38% 1.76%]	0.01
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.014678363	7.66E-3 (0.77%)	[0.64% 0.91%]	9.65E-3 (0.96%)	[0.83% 1.13%]	0.011 (1.08%)	[0.93% 1.25%]	0.013 (1.26%)	[1.10% 1.44%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.30% 1.66%]	0.009239766
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.010467837	3.92E-3 (0.39%)	[0.31% 0.50%]	5.03E-3 (0.50%)	[0.40% 0.62%]	5.96E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	8.25E-3 (0.82%)	[0.70% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.05%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.0053216373
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.010467837	4.09E-3 (0.41%)	[0.32% 0.52%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	5.96E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	8.25E-3 (0.82%)	[0.70% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.05%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.0056140353
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.010467837	4.09E-3 (0.41%)	[0.32% 0.52%]	5.26E-3 (0.53%)	[0.43% 0.65%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.50% 0.75%]	8.36E-3 (0.84%)	[0.71% 0.99%]	0.010 (1.05%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.005497076
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.010409357	3.98E-3 (0.40%)	[0.31% 0.51%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	6.02E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	8.19E-3 (0.82%)	[0.69% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.04%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.005380117
Cucamonga	0.010175439	3.27E-3 (0.33%)	[0.25% 0.43%]	4.39E-3 (0.44%)	[0.35% 0.55%]	5.61E-3 (0.56%)	[0.46% 0.69%]	7.95E-3 (0.80%)	[0.67% 0.94%]	0.010 (1.02%)	[0.88% 1.18%]	0.0059649125
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.009707603	5.03E-3 (0.50%)	[0.40% 0.62%]	6.32E-3 (0.63%)	[0.52% 0.77%]	7.02E-3 (0.70%)	[0.58% 0.84%]	8.19E-3 (0.82%)	[0.69% 0.97%]	9.65E-3 (0.96%)	[0.83% 1.13%]	0.006140351
Blue Cut	0.00748538	1.93E-3 (0.19%)	[0.14% 0.27%]	2.98E-3 (0.30%)	[0.22% 0.40%]	3.86E-3 (0.39%)	[0.30% 0.49%]	5.91E-3 (0.59%)	[0.48% 0.72%]	7.49E-3 (0.75%)	[0.63% 0.89%]	0.0023976609
San Jacinto (Coyote Creek)	0.0059649125	2.05E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.29%]	2.63E-3 (0.26%)	[0.19% 0.36%]	3.39E-3 (0.34%)	[0.26% 0.44%]	4.62E-3 (0.46%)	[0.37% 0.58%]	5.96E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	0.0029239766
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.0058479533	2.87E-3 (0.29%)	[0.21% 0.38%]	3.63E-3 (0.36%)	[0.28% 0.47%]	4.09E-3 (0.41%)	[0.32% 0.52%]	4.85E-3 (0.49%)	[0.39% 0.60%]	5.73E-3 (0.57%)	[0.47% 0.70%]	0.0038011696
San Jacinto (Borrego)	0.005146199	1.93E-3 (0.19%)	[0.14% 0.27%]	2.40E-3 (0.24%)	[0.17% 0.33%]	3.04E-3 (0.30%)	[0.23% 0.40%]	3.98E-3 (0.40%)	[0.31% 0.51%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	0.0024561402
Sierra Madre	0.005146199	1.35E-3 (0.13%)	[0.09% 0.21%]	1.87E-3 (0.19%)	[0.13% 0.27%]	2.69E-3 (0.27%)	[0.20% 0.36%]	3.74E-3 (0.37%)	[0.29% 0.48%]	5.09E-3 (0.51%)	[0.41% 0.63%]	0.0025146198
San Jacinto (Superstition Mtn)	0.0042690057	1.58E-3 (0.16%)	[0.11% 0.23%]	1.93E-3 (0.19%)	[0.14% 0.27%]	2.46E-3 (0.25%)	[0.18% 0.34%]	3.27E-3 (0.33%)	[0.25% 0.43%]	4.27E-3 (0.43%)	[0.34% 0.54%]	0.0019298246

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 25 of 116 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.028421052	0.015 (1.45%)	[1.28% 1.64%]	0.019 (1.89%)	[1.69% 2.11%]	0.022 (2.16%)	[1.95% 2.39%]	0.025 (2.49%)	[2.27% 2.74%]	0.028 (2.82%)	[2.58% 3.08%]	0.020935673
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.02754386	0.014 (1.37%)	[1.21% 1.56%]	0.018 (1.80%)	[1.60% 2.01%]	0.020 (2.04%)	[1.84% 2.27%]	0.024 (2.37%)	[2.15% 2.62%]	0.027 (2.73%)	[2.49% 2.98%]	0.019766081
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.025614034	0.013 (1.30%)	[1.14% 1.49%]	0.017 (1.71%)	[1.52% 1.92%]	0.019 (1.95%)	[1.75% 2.17%]	0.022 (2.24%)	[2.03% 2.48%]	0.025 (2.55%)	[2.32% 2.80%]	0.01871345
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.023625731	0.012 (1.22%)	[1.06% 1.40%]	0.015 (1.55%)	[1.37% 1.75%]	0.018 (1.77%)	[1.58% 1.98%]	0.020 (2.05%)	[1.84% 2.27%]	0.024 (2.36%)	[2.14% 2.60%]	0.016549708
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.02122807	0.012 (1.16%)	[1.01% 1.33%]	0.014 (1.43%)	[1.26% 1.63%]	0.016 (1.60%)	[1.42% 1.80%]	0.019 (1.85%)	[1.66% 2.07%]	0.021 (2.11%)	[1.90% 2.34%]	0.014385965
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.020526316	0.011 (1.05%)	[0.91% 1.22%]	0.014 (1.36%)	[1.20% 1.55%]	0.016 (1.56%)	[1.38% 1.76%]	0.018 (1.81%)	[1.62% 2.02%]	0.020 (2.05%)	[1.84% 2.27%]	0.014853802
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.019064328	0.010 (1.05%)	[0.90% 1.21%]	0.013 (1.30%)	[1.14% 1.48%]	0.014 (1.44%)	[1.27% 1.64%]	0.017 (1.67%)	[1.48% 1.87%]	0.019 (1.91%)	[1.71% 2.13%]	0.012923976
Imperial	0.01883041	9.30E-3 (0.93%)	[0.79% 1.09%]	0.012 (1.23%)	[1.08% 1.41%]	0.014 (1.42%)	[1.25% 1.61%]	0.017 (1.65%)	[1.47% 1.86%]	0.019 (1.88%)	[1.69% 2.10%]	0.013450292
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.016725145	9.30E-3 (0.93%)	[0.79% 1.09%]	0.011 (1.15%)	[0.99% 1.32%]	0.013 (1.28%)	[1.12% 1.46%]	0.015 (1.46%)	[1.29% 1.66%]	0.017 (1.67%)	[1.49% 1.88%]	0.011286549
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.015380117	8.25E-3 (0.82%)	[0.70% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.03%)	[0.89% 1.20%]	0.012 (1.15%)	[1.00% 1.33%]	0.013 (1.33%)	[1.17% 1.52%]	0.015 (1.54%)	[1.36% 1.74%]	0.00994152
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.014385965	7.49E-3 (0.75%)	[0.63% 0.89%]	9.47E-3 (0.95%)	[0.81% 1.11%]	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.92% 1.23%]	0.012 (1.23%)	[1.08% 1.41%]	0.014 (1.44%)	[1.27% 1.63%]	0.009239766
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.010058479	3.92E-3 (0.39%)	[0.31% 0.50%]	4.97E-3 (0.50%)	[0.40% 0.62%]	5.85E-3 (0.58%)	[0.48% 0.71%]	8.01E-3 (0.80%)	[0.68% 0.95%]	0.010 (1.01%)	[0.86% 1.17%]	0.0053216373
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.009883041	3.92E-3 (0.39%)	[0.31% 0.50%]	4.91E-3 (0.49%)	[0.39% 0.61%]	5.73E-3 (0.57%)	[0.47% 0.70%]	7.84E-3 (0.78%)	[0.66% 0.93%]	9.88E-3 (0.99%)	[0.85% 1.15%]	0.0053216373
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.009824561	3.86E-3 (0.39%)	[0.30% 0.49%]	4.91E-3 (0.49%)	[0.39% 0.61%]	5.79E-3 (0.58%)	[0.47% 0.71%]	7.78E-3 (0.78%)	[0.65% 0.92%]	9.82E-3 (0.98%)	[0.84% 1.14%]	0.0052046785
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.009707603	3.74E-3 (0.37%)	[0.29% 0.48%]	4.80E-3 (0.48%)	[0.38% 0.60%]	5.67E-3 (0.57%)	[0.46% 0.69%]	7.66E-3 (0.77%)	[0.64% 0.91%]	9.71E-3 (0.97%)	[0.83% 1.13%]	0.0050877193
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.009473684	4.91E-3 (0.49%)	[0.39% 0.61%]	6.20E-3 (0.62%)	[0.51% 0.75%]	6.90E-3 (0.69%)	[0.57% 0.83%]	8.01E-3 (0.80%)	[0.68% 0.95%]	9.47E-3 (0.95%)	[0.81% 1.11%]	0.006140351
Cucamonga	0.0059649125	2.05E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.29%]	2.75E-3 (0.27%)	[0.20% 0.37%]	3.22E-3 (0.32%)	[0.24% 0.42%]	4.56E-3 (0.46%)	[0.36% 0.57%]	5.96E-3 (0.60%)	[0.49% 0.73%]	0.0033918128
San Jacinto (Coyote Creek)	0.0058479533	2.05E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.29%]	2.63E-3 (0.26%)	[0.19% 0.36%]	3.39E-3 (0.34%)	[0.26% 0.44%]	4.56E-3 (0.46%)	[0.36% 0.57%]	5.85E-3 (0.58%)	[0.48% 0.71%]	0.0029239766
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.0055555557	2.75E-3 (0.27%)	[0.20% 0.37%]	3.51E-3 (0.35%)	[0.27% 0.45%]	3.98E-3 (0.40%)	[0.31% 0.51%]	4.68E-3 (0.47%)	[0.37% 0.59%]	5.56E-3 (0.56%)	[0.45% 0.68%]	0.0038011696
San Jacinto (Borrego)	0.0050292397	1.93E-3 (0.19%)	[0.14% 0.27%]	2.40E-3 (0.24%)	[0.17% 0.33%]	3.04E-3 (0.30%)	[0.23% 0.40%]	3.92E-3 (0.39%)	[0.31% 0.50%]	5.03E-3 (0.50%)	[0.40% 0.62%]	0.0024561402
San Jacinto (Superstition Mtn)	0.004152047	1.58E-3 (0.16%)	[0.11% 0.23%]	1.93E-3 (0.19%)	[0.14% 0.27%]	2.46E-3 (0.25%)	[0.18% 0.34%]	3.22E-3 (0.32%)	[0.24% 0.42%]	4.15E-3 (0.42%)	[0.33% 0.53%]	0.0019298246
Sierra Madre	0.004035088	1.05E-3 (0.11%)	[0.06% 0.17%]	1.52E-3 (0.15%)	[0.10% 0.23%]	1.93E-3 (0.19%)	[0.14% 0.27%]	2.92E-3 (0.29%)	[0.22% 0.39%]	3.98E-3 (0.40%)	[0.31% 0.51%]	0.001988304
San Gorgonio Pass	0.0033333334	1.23E-3 (0.12%)	[0.08% 0.19%]	1.75E-3 (0.18%)	[0.12% 0.25%]	2.11E-3 (0.21%)	[0.15% 0.29%]	2.69E-3 (0.27%)	[0.20% 0.36%]	3.33E-3 (0.33%)	[0.25% 0.43%]	0.002105263
San Jacinto (Clark) rev	0.0032748538	1.46E-3 (0.15%)	[0.10% 0.22%]	1.87E-3 (0.19%)	[0.13% 0.27%]	1.99E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.28%]	2.63E-3 (0.26%)	[0.19% 0.36%]	3.27E-3 (0.33%)	[0.25% 0.43%]	0.001871345
Pinto Mtn	0.0029239766	1.17E-3 (0.12%)	[0.07% 0.18%]	1.64E-3 (0.16%)	[0.11% 0.24%]	2.11E-3 (0.21%)	[0.15% 0.29%]	2.75E-3 (0.27%)	[0.20% 0.37%]	2.92E-3 (0.29%)	[0.22% 0.39%]	0.0015204678

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 25 of 43 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.0071929824	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.28% 0.46%]	4.50E-3 (0.45%)	[0.36% 0.57%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.50% 0.75%]	7.19E-3 (0.72%)	[0.60% 0.86%]	0.004619883
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.0071929824	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.28% 0.46%]	4.50E-3 (0.45%)	[0.36% 0.57%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.50% 0.75%]	7.19E-3 (0.72%)	[0.60% 0.86%]	0.004619883
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.0071345028	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.28% 0.46%]	4.50E-3 (0.45%)	[0.36% 0.57%]	5.15E-3 (0.51%)	[0.42% 0.64%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.50% 0.75%]	7.13E-3 (0.71%)	[0.60% 0.85%]	0.0045614033
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.006608187	3.39E-3 (0.34%)	[0.26% 0.44%]	4.21E-3 (0.42%)	[0.33% 0.53%]	4.85E-3 (0.49%)	[0.39% 0.60%]	5.61E-3 (0.56%)	[0.46% 0.69%]	6.61E-3 (0.66%)	[0.55% 0.80%]	0.0042690057
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.006608187	3.39E-3 (0.34%)	[0.26% 0.44%]	4.21E-3 (0.42%)	[0.33% 0.53%]	4.85E-3 (0.49%)	[0.39% 0.60%]	5.61E-3 (0.56%)	[0.46% 0.69%]	6.61E-3 (0.66%)	[0.55% 0.80%]	0.0042690057
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.006374269	3.22E-3 (0.32%)	[0.24% 0.42%]	4.04E-3 (0.40%)	[0.32% 0.51%]	4.68E-3 (0.47%)	[0.37% 0.59%]	5.38E-3 (0.54%)	[0.44% 0.66%]	6.37E-3 (0.64%)	[0.53% 0.77%]	0.004152047
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.0048538013	2.46E-3 (0.25%)	[0.18% 0.34%]	3.10E-3 (0.31%)	[0.23% 0.41%]	3.51E-3 (0.35%)	[0.27% 0.45%]	4.04E-3 (0.40%)	[0.32% 0.51%]	4.85E-3 (0.49%)	[0.39% 0.60%]	0.0031578948
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.004035088	2.22E-3 (0.22%)	[0.16% 0.31%]	2.81E-3 (0.28%)	[0.21% 0.38%]	3.04E-3 (0.30%)	[0.23% 0.40%]	3.63E-3 (0.36%)	[0.28% 0.47%]	4.04E-3 (0.40%)	[0.32% 0.51%]	0.0028070176
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.004035088	2.34E-3 (0.23%)	[0.17% 0.32%]	2.87E-3 (0.29%)	[0.21% 0.38%]	3.10E-3 (0.31%)	[0.23% 0.41%]	3.68E-3 (0.37%)	[0.29% 0.47%]	4.04E-3 (0.40%)	[0.32% 0.51%]	0.0028070176
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.003625731	2.28E-3 (0.23%)	[0.16% 0.31%]	2.75E-3 (0.27%)	[0.20% 0.37%]	3.04E-3 (0.30%)	[0.23% 0.40%]	3.45E-3 (0.35%)	[0.27% 0.45%]	3.63E-3 (0.36%)	[0.28% 0.47%]	0.0025730995
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.0033918128	1.70E-3 (0.17%)	[0.12% 0.25%]	2.11E-3 (0.21%)	[0.15% 0.29%]	2.46E-3 (0.25%)	[0.18% 0.34%]	2.87E-3 (0.29%)	[0.21% 0.38%]	3.39E-3 (0.34%)	[0.26% 0.44%]	0.0024561402
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.002631579	9.36E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.16%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.08% 0.20%]	1.64E-3 (0.16%)	[0.11% 0.24%]	2.05E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.29%]	2.63E-3 (0.26%)	[0.19% 0.36%]	0.0014035088
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.002631579	9.36E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.16%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.08% 0.20%]	1.64E-3 (0.16%)	[0.11% 0.24%]	2.05E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.29%]	2.63E-3 (0.26%)	[0.19% 0.36%]	0.0014035088
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.002631579	9.36E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.16%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.08% 0.20%]	1.64E-3 (0.16%)	[0.11% 0.24%]	2.05E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.29%]	2.63E-3 (0.26%)	[0.19% 0.36%]	0.0014035088
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.002631579	9.36E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.16%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.08% 0.20%]	1.64E-3 (0.16%)	[0.11% 0.24%]	2.05E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.29%]	2.63E-3 (0.26%)	[0.19% 0.36%]	0.0014035088
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.0023976609	1.52E-3 (0.15%)	[0.10% 0.23%]	1.75E-3 (0.18%)	[0.12% 0.25%]	1.99E-3 (0.20%)	[0.14% 0.28%]	2.28E-3 (0.23%)	[0.16% 0.31%]	2.40E-3 (0.24%)	[0.17% 0.33%]	0.001754386
Imperial	0.0016959064	9.94E-4 (0.10%)	[0.06% 0.16%]	1.23E-3 (0.12%)	[0.08% 0.19%]	1.40E-3 (0.14%)	[0.09% 0.21%]	1.58E-3 (0.16%)	[0.11% 0.23%]	1.70E-3 (0.17%)	[0.12% 0.25%]	0.0011695906
San Jacinto (Coyote Creek)	0.0016374269	3.51E-4 (0.04%)	[0.01% 0.08%]	5.85E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.11%]	9.36E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.16%]	1.23E-3 (0.12%)	[0.08% 0.19%]	1.64E-3 (0.16%)	[0.11% 0.24%]	6.4327486E-4
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM	0.0014619883	7.02E-4 (0.07%)	[0.04% 0.13%]	8.77E-4 (0.09%)	[0.05% 0.15%]	9.36E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.16%]	1.11E-3 (0.11%)	[0.07% 0.18%]	1.46E-3 (0.15%)	[0.10% 0.22%]	9.356725E-4
San Jacinto (Borrego)	0.0011111111	2.92E-4 (0.03%)	[0.01% 0.07%]	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.09%]	6.43E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.12%]	8.77E-4 (0.09%)	[0.05% 0.15%]	1.11E-3 (0.11%)	[0.07% 0.18%]	3.508772E-4
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM	0.0010526315	4.68E-4 (0.05%)	[0.02% 0.10%]	6.43E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.12%]	7.02E-4 (0.07%)	[0.04% 0.13%]	8.19E-4 (0.08%)	[0.05% 0.14%]	1.05E-3 (0.11%)	[0.06% 0.17%]	5.847953E-4
San Jacinto (Clark) rev	8.1871345E-4	5.26E-4 (0.05%)	[0.03% 0.10%]	5.85E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.11%]	5.85E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.11%]	6.43E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.12%]	8.19E-4 (0.08%)	[0.05% 0.14%]	5.847953E-4
San Jacinto (Superstition Mtn)	7.602339E-4	1.75E-4 (0.02%)	[0.00% 0.06%]	2.34E-4 (0.02%)	[0.01% 0.06%]	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.09%]	5.26E-4 (0.05%)	[0.03% 0.10%]	7.60E-4 (0.08%)	[0.04% 0.13%]	1.1695906E-4
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM	6.4327486E-4	2.34E-4 (0.02%)	[0.01% 0.06%]	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.09%]	4.09E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.09%]	4.68E-4 (0.05%)	[0.02% 0.10%]	6.43E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.12%]	4.6783625E-4
Garlock (Central)	5.847953E-4	1.75E-4 (0.02%)	[0.00% 0.06%]	2.92E-4 (0.03%)	[0.01% 0.07%]	2.92E-4 (0.03%)	[0.01% 0.07%]	5.26E-4 (0.05%)	[0.03% 0.10%]	5.85E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.11%]	3.508772E-4

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

(top)

The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week	1 Month	1 Year	10 Year

Gridded Nucleation

(top)

Min Mag	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

(top)

{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1778624347993,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1778633057243,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "/expanse/lustre/projects/usc143/abhatthal/ucerf3/u3etas_sim/scenarios/expanse-scenario-fss199642-n14-s100000-t1778624347993",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "fssIndex": 199642
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.29,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-time 1778624347993 --fss-index 199642 --nodes 14 --num-simulations 100000 --hpc-site SDSC_EXPANSE --output-dir /expanse/lustre/projects/usc143/abhatthal/ucerf3/u3etas_sim/scenarios/expanse-scenario-fss199642-n14-s100000-t1778624347993",
  "configTime": 1778633057243
}

FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr Results

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

Magnitude Number Distribution

10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

Hazard Change Over Time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

Trigger Rupture Depth Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

Section Participation

Section Participation Plots

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

Gridded Nucleation

JSON Input File