FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr Results

	FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr
Num Simulations	27036 (incomplete)
Start Time	2026/05/12 22:19:07 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds	1778624347993
Duration	10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?	false
Trigger Ruptures	(none)
Config Generated With	u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-time 1778624347993 --fss-index 199642 --nodes 128 --num-simulations 50000 --hpc-site TACC_FRONTERA --output-dir /work2/10177/bhatthal/frontera/ucerf3/u3etas_sim/scenarios/frontera-scenario-fss199642-n128-s50000-t1778624347993

Probabilities Summary Table
Magnitude Number Distribution
Hazard Change Over Time
Trigger Rupture Fault Map
Trigger Rupture Depth Map
Fault Distances To Triggers
Individual Simulated Catalog Maps
Section Participation
Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions
Gridded Nucleation
JSON Input File

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude	1 Hour Prob	1 Day Prob	1 Week Prob	1 Month Prob	1 Year Prob	10 Year Prob
M≥4	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]
M≥4.5	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]
M≥5	0.999 (99.94%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[99.90% 99.96%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]
M≥5.5	0.896 (89.59%)	0.997 (99.68%)	1.000 (99.95%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[89.22% 89.95%]	[99.60% 99.74%]	[99.92% 99.97%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]	[99.98% 100.00%]
M≥6	0.438 (43.76%)	0.749 (74.93%)	0.853 (85.35%)	0.903 (90.31%)	0.953 (95.28%)	0.974 (97.43%)
95% Conf	[43.16% 44.35%]	[74.40% 75.44%]	[84.92% 85.76%]	[89.95% 90.66%]	[95.02% 95.53%]	[97.23% 97.61%]
M≥6.5	0.193 (19.33%)	0.398 (39.85%)	0.492 (49.23%)	0.557 (55.71%)	0.647 (64.73%)	0.711 (71.06%)
95% Conf	[18.87% 19.81%]	[39.26% 40.43%]	[48.63% 49.83%]	[55.12% 56.30%]	[64.16% 65.30%]	[70.52% 71.60%]
M≥7	0.054 (5.40%)	0.106 (10.56%)	0.132 (13.16%)	0.150 (14.97%)	0.178 (17.77%)	0.203 (20.33%)
95% Conf	[5.14% 5.68%]	[10.20% 10.93%]	[12.76% 13.57%]	[14.55% 15.40%]	[17.32% 18.23%]	[19.85% 20.82%]
M≥7.5	0.022 (2.20%)	0.041 (4.12%)	0.050 (5.03%)	0.056 (5.56%)	0.065 (6.55%)	0.074 (7.36%)
95% Conf	[2.03% 2.38%]	[3.89% 4.37%]	[4.77% 5.30%]	[5.29% 5.84%]	[6.26% 6.85%]	[7.06% 7.68%]
M≥7.8	0.012 (1.21%)	0.020 (2.02%)	0.024 (2.37%)	0.026 (2.58%)	0.029 (2.91%)	0.032 (3.22%)
95% Conf	[1.09% 1.35%]	[1.85% 2.19%]	[2.19% 2.56%]	[2.40% 2.78%]	[2.72% 3.12%]	[3.01% 3.44%]
M≥8	3.51E-3 (0.35%)	6.10E-3 (0.61%)	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	8.36E-3 (0.84%)	9.62E-3 (0.96%)	0.011 (1.07%)
95% Conf	[0.29% 0.43%]	[0.52% 0.71%]	[0.65% 0.86%]	[0.73% 0.95%]	[0.85% 1.09%]	[0.95% 1.20%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 27036 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 27036 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 27036 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 27036 catalogs
10 yr Probability (thin red line): 10 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
10 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 27036 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	10 yr Probability	10 yr Prob 95% Conf	10 yr Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	23541.363	17995.000	48919.000	21342.000	20392.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	10529.431
M≥2.6	18744.394	14319.000	38934.000	16990.000	15849.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	8382.991
M≥2.7	14917.557	11394.000	30977.000	13523.000	12635.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	6671.086
M≥2.8	11867.026	9058.000	24663.000	10760.000	10314.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	5306.659
M≥2.9	9438.058	7200.000	19574.000	8558.000	8747.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	4220.300
M≥3	7504.086	5716.000	15569.000	6804.000	6689.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	3355.423
M≥3.1	5964.979	4539.000	12334.000	5408.000	5359.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	2667.087
M≥3.2	4740.661	3601.000	9819.000	4301.000	4199.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	2119.683
M≥3.3	3766.973	2855.000	7811.000	3418.000	3224.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	1684.319
M≥3.4	2992.758	2265.000	6201.000	2716.000	2664.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	1338.132
M≥3.5	2377.246	1793.000	4932.000	2159.000	2109.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	1062.890
M≥3.6	1888.218	1420.000	3919.000	1716.000	1638.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	844.393
M≥3.7	1499.526	1123.000	3111.000	1363.000	1250.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	670.683
M≥3.8	1190.658	887.000	2469.000	1083.000	1050.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	532.605
M≥3.9	945.264	699.000	1958.000	861.000	820.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	422.876
M≥4	750.230	550.000	1554.000	684.000	649.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	335.693
M≥4.1	595.497	433.000	1234.000	543.000	526.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	266.563
M≥4.2	472.397	340.000	979.000	431.000	399.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	211.501
M≥4.3	374.518	266.000	778.000	342.000	325.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	167.737
M≥4.4	296.863	208.000	616.000	272.000	246.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	133.024
M≥4.5	235.104	162.000	488.000	215.000	197.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	105.416
M≥4.6	186.025	126.000	387.000	171.000	161.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	83.452
M≥4.7	147.106	97.000	306.000	135.000	129.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	66.020
M≥4.8	116.182	75.000	243.000	107.000	104.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	52.202
M≥4.9	91.624	58.000	191.000	84.000	79.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	41.230
M≥5	72.081	43.000	150.000	66.000	63.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	32.500
M≥5.1	56.614	33.000	119.000	52.000	48.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	25.569
M≥5.2	44.330	24.000	94.000	41.000	38.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	20.084
M≥5.3	34.537	18.000	73.000	32.000	29.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	15.703
M≥5.4	26.795	13.000	58.000	25.000	23.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	12.235
M≥5.5	20.632	9.000	45.000	19.000	18.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	9.469
M≥5.6	15.732	6.000	35.000	14.000	13.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.807 (80.73%)	7.285
M≥5.7	11.841	4.000	27.000	11.000	10.000	1.000 (99.98%)	[99.95% 99.99%]	0.807 (80.73%)	5.536
M≥5.8	8.716	2.000	21.000	8.000	7.000	0.999 (99.87%)	[99.82% 99.91%]	0.807 (80.73%)	4.137
M≥5.9	6.261	1.000	16.000	6.000	5.000	0.993 (99.31%)	[99.20% 99.40%]	0.807 (80.73%)	3.033
M≥6	4.504	0.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	0.974 (97.43%)	[97.23% 97.61%]	0.807 (80.73%)	2.246
M≥6.1	3.258	0.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	0.934 (93.41%)	[93.10% 93.70%]	0.807 (80.70%)	1.685
M≥6.2	2.494	0.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	0.888 (88.80%)	[88.41% 89.17%]	0.804 (80.39%)	1.362
M≥6.3	1.951	0.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.827 (82.74%)	[82.28% 83.19%]	0.778 (77.85%)	1.124
M≥6.4	1.538	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.775 (77.55%)	[77.05% 78.04%]	0.744 (74.37%)	0.894
M≥6.5	1.215	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.711 (71.06%)	[70.52% 71.60%]	0.689 (68.92%)	0.718
M≥6.6	0.863	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.590 (59.03%)	[58.44% 59.61%]	0.577 (57.74%)	0.522
M≥6.7	0.696	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.510 (50.96%)	[50.36% 51.56%]	0.499 (49.89%)	0.425
M≥6.8	0.622	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.476 (47.55%)	[46.95% 48.15%]	0.468 (46.79%)	0.389
M≥6.9	0.308	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.240 (24.01%)	[23.51% 24.53%]	0.233 (23.25%)	0.186
M≥7	0.253	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.203 (20.33%)	[19.85% 20.82%]	0.199 (19.86%)	0.155
M≥7.1	0.222	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.182 (18.16%)	[17.71% 18.63%]	0.179 (17.86%)	0.140
M≥7.2	0.160	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.134 (13.42%)	[13.02% 13.83%]	0.132 (13.23%)	0.104
M≥7.3	0.128	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.111 (11.07%)	[10.70% 11.45%]	0.110 (11.00%)	0.084
M≥7.4	0.097	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.088 (8.80%)	[8.47% 9.14%]	0.088 (8.76%)	0.064
M≥7.5	0.079	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.074 (7.36%)	[7.06% 7.68%]	0.074 (7.35%)	0.052
M≥7.6	0.057	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.054 (5.40%)	[5.14% 5.68%]	0.054 (5.40%)	0.038
M≥7.7	0.039	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.038 (3.82%)	[3.60% 4.06%]	0.038 (3.82%)	0.028
M≥7.8	0.032	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.032 (3.23%)	[3.03% 3.45%]	0.032 (3.23%)	0.024
M≥7.9	0.021	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.021 (2.12%)	[1.95% 2.30%]	0.021 (2.12%)	0.015
M≥8	0.011	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.011 (1.07%)	[0.95% 1.20%]	0.011 (1.07%)	7.43E-3
M≥8.1	2.70E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.70E-3 (0.27%)	[0.21% 0.34%]	2.70E-3 (0.27%)	2.03E-3
M≥8.2	6.29E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.29E-4 (0.06%)	[0.04% 0.10%]	6.29E-4 (0.06%)	4.81E-4
M≥8.3	2.22E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.22E-4 (0.02%)	[0.01% 0.05%]	2.22E-4 (0.02%)	1.85E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 27036 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 27036 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 27036 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 27036 catalogs
1 yr Probability (thin red line): 1 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 27036 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 yr Probability	1 yr Prob 95% Conf	1 yr Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	18494.557	14546.000	37591.000	16890.000	15695.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	9323.041
M≥2.6	14726.049	11571.000	29923.000	13449.000	13577.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	7422.612
M≥2.7	11719.240	9208.000	23838.000	10704.000	10461.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	5906.733
M≥2.8	9322.451	7326.000	18970.000	8515.000	8057.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	4698.536
M≥2.9	7414.210	5820.000	15090.000	6771.000	6318.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	3736.714
M≥3	5894.907	4621.000	11948.000	5383.000	5180.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	2970.938
M≥3.1	4685.863	3667.000	9513.000	4280.000	4115.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	2361.510
M≥3.2	3724.122	2905.000	7548.000	3403.000	3367.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	1876.809
M≥3.3	2959.145	2305.000	5993.000	2704.000	2576.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	1491.278
M≥3.4	2350.999	1824.000	4775.000	2149.000	2092.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	1184.781
M≥3.5	1867.534	1445.000	3791.000	1708.000	1610.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	941.136
M≥3.6	1483.365	1142.000	3013.000	1357.000	1291.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	747.679
M≥3.7	1178.075	902.000	2389.000	1079.000	1047.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	593.871
M≥3.8	935.421	712.000	1900.000	857.000	799.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	471.628
M≥3.9	742.639	561.000	1506.000	681.000	663.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	374.467
M≥4	589.426	441.000	1196.000	541.000	509.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	297.256
M≥4.1	467.910	347.000	952.000	430.000	420.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	236.066
M≥4.2	371.191	271.000	754.000	341.000	322.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	187.311
M≥4.3	294.285	212.000	598.000	271.000	253.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	148.558
M≥4.4	233.299	165.000	474.000	215.000	199.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	117.836
M≥4.5	184.779	129.000	374.000	170.000	164.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	93.375
M≥4.6	146.211	100.000	298.000	135.000	131.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	73.923
M≥4.7	115.638	77.000	236.000	107.000	100.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	58.486
M≥4.8	91.349	59.000	186.000	84.000	80.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	46.246
M≥4.9	72.072	45.000	148.000	67.000	64.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	36.540
M≥5	56.727	34.000	117.000	52.000	49.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	28.810
M≥5.1	44.571	25.000	92.000	41.000	40.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	22.676
M≥5.2	34.941	19.000	73.000	32.000	30.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	17.828
M≥5.3	27.235	14.000	58.000	25.000	24.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	13.948
M≥5.4	21.148	10.000	45.000	20.000	18.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	10.877
M≥5.5	16.306	7.000	36.000	15.000	13.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	8.429
M≥5.6	12.459	4.000	28.000	11.000	10.000	1.000 (99.99%)	[99.97% 100.00%]	0.748 (74.82%)	6.491
M≥5.7	9.391	3.000	22.000	9.000	8.000	1.000 (99.96%)	[99.93% 99.98%]	0.748 (74.82%)	4.939
M≥5.8	6.947	2.000	17.000	6.000	5.000	0.996 (99.64%)	[99.56% 99.71%]	0.748 (74.82%)	3.704
M≥5.9	5.017	1.000	13.000	4.000	4.000	0.985 (98.46%)	[98.30% 98.60%]	0.748 (74.82%)	2.726
M≥6	3.633	0.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	0.953 (95.28%)	[95.02% 95.53%]	0.748 (74.82%)	2.028
M≥6.1	2.656	0.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	0.897 (89.71%)	[89.34% 90.07%]	0.748 (74.78%)	1.533
M≥6.2	2.067	0.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.838 (83.84%)	[83.40% 84.28%]	0.744 (74.43%)	1.247
M≥6.3	1.642	0.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.768 (76.76%)	[76.25% 77.26%]	0.718 (71.79%)	1.037
M≥6.4	1.294	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.712 (71.23%)	[70.69% 71.77%]	0.682 (68.19%)	0.824
M≥6.5	1.023	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.647 (64.73%)	[64.16% 65.30%]	0.628 (62.79%)	0.660
M≥6.6	0.734	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.528 (52.84%)	[52.24% 53.43%]	0.518 (51.81%)	0.483
M≥6.7	0.593	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.454 (45.35%)	[44.76% 45.95%]	0.445 (44.50%)	0.393
M≥6.8	0.533	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.422 (42.22%)	[41.63% 42.81%]	0.416 (41.62%)	0.359
M≥6.9	0.262	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.209 (20.94%)	[20.46% 21.43%]	0.204 (20.42%)	0.173
M≥7	0.217	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.178 (17.77%)	[17.32% 18.23%]	0.175 (17.46%)	0.145
M≥7.1	0.193	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.160 (16.03%)	[15.60% 16.47%]	0.158 (15.82%)	0.131
M≥7.2	0.140	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.119 (11.89%)	[11.51% 12.28%]	0.117 (11.74%)	0.097
M≥7.3	0.112	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.098 (9.84%)	[9.49% 10.20%]	0.098 (9.79%)	0.079
M≥7.4	0.086	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.078 (7.83%)	[7.52% 8.16%]	0.078 (7.81%)	0.060
M≥7.5	0.070	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.065 (6.55%)	[6.26% 6.85%]	0.065 (6.54%)	0.049
M≥7.6	0.051	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.048 (4.82%)	[4.57% 5.08%]	0.048 (4.82%)	0.036
M≥7.7	0.035	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.034 (3.43%)	[3.21% 3.65%]	0.034 (3.43%)	0.026
M≥7.8	0.029	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.029 (2.93%)	[2.73% 3.14%]	0.029 (2.93%)	0.022
M≥7.9	0.019	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.019 (1.91%)	[1.75% 2.08%]	0.019 (1.91%)	0.014
M≥8	9.62E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	9.62E-3 (0.96%)	[0.85% 1.09%]	9.62E-3 (0.96%)	7.06E-3
M≥8.1	2.37E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.37E-3 (0.24%)	[0.18% 0.30%]	2.37E-3 (0.24%)	1.92E-3
M≥8.2	5.55E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.55E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.09%]	5.55E-4 (0.06%)	4.07E-4
M≥8.3	1.85E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.85E-4 (0.02%)	[0.01% 0.05%]	1.85E-4 (0.02%)	1.48E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 27036 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 27036 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 27036 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 27036 catalogs
1 mo Probability (thin red line): 1 month probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 mo Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 27036 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 mo Probability	1 mo Prob 95% Conf	1 mo Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	13418.134	10907.000	26278.000	12355.000	11807.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	7773.098
M≥2.6	10683.561	8678.000	20875.000	9837.000	9316.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	6188.644
M≥2.7	8501.922	6897.000	16621.000	7828.000	7456.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	4924.757
M≥2.8	6762.855	5479.000	13214.000	6229.000	6027.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	3917.370
M≥2.9	5378.411	4353.000	10513.000	4955.000	4794.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	3115.444
M≥3	4276.219	3453.000	8344.000	3940.000	3895.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	2476.975
M≥3.1	3399.072	2738.000	6638.000	3133.000	2938.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	1968.847
M≥3.2	2701.414	2170.000	5281.000	2490.000	2408.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	1564.756
M≥3.3	2146.555	1719.000	4190.000	1980.000	1892.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	1243.374
M≥3.4	1705.353	1359.000	3337.000	1574.000	1547.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	987.811
M≥3.5	1354.626	1075.000	2647.000	1250.000	1244.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	784.652
M≥3.6	1075.953	849.000	2111.000	993.000	947.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	623.374
M≥3.7	854.494	670.000	1679.000	790.000	781.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	495.140
M≥3.8	678.482	528.000	1334.000	628.000	605.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	393.225
M≥3.9	538.613	416.000	1058.000	499.000	484.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	312.171
M≥4	427.613	326.000	840.000	396.000	380.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	247.848
M≥4.1	339.470	255.000	664.000	315.000	308.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	196.847
M≥4.2	269.299	200.000	528.000	250.000	240.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	156.196
M≥4.3	213.565	156.000	418.000	198.000	196.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	123.905
M≥4.4	169.347	121.000	331.000	158.000	153.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	98.296
M≥4.5	134.175	94.000	264.000	125.000	119.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	77.919
M≥4.6	106.180	72.000	209.000	99.000	95.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	61.699
M≥4.7	83.966	55.000	167.000	78.000	78.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	48.827
M≥4.8	66.353	42.000	133.000	62.000	59.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	38.623
M≥4.9	52.390	32.000	105.000	49.000	44.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	30.527
M≥5	41.276	24.000	83.000	39.000	36.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	24.083
M≥5.1	32.466	18.000	66.000	30.000	30.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	18.972
M≥5.2	25.482	13.000	53.000	24.000	23.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	14.929
M≥5.3	19.904	9.000	42.000	19.000	18.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	11.698
M≥5.4	15.485	6.000	33.000	14.000	14.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	9.137
M≥5.5	11.959	4.000	26.000	11.000	10.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.659 (65.95%)	7.087
M≥5.6	9.167	3.000	21.000	8.000	7.000	0.999 (99.94%)	[99.90% 99.96%]	0.659 (65.95%)	5.470
M≥5.7	6.938	2.000	17.000	6.000	6.000	0.997 (99.69%)	[99.61% 99.75%]	0.659 (65.95%)	4.176
M≥5.8	5.162	1.000	13.000	5.000	4.000	0.986 (98.61%)	[98.46% 98.75%]	0.659 (65.95%)	3.146
M≥5.9	3.756	0.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	0.957 (95.69%)	[95.44% 95.92%]	0.659 (65.95%)	2.327
M≥6	2.750	0.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	0.903 (90.31%)	[89.95% 90.66%]	0.659 (65.95%)	1.744
M≥6.1	2.039	0.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.827 (82.72%)	[82.26% 83.17%]	0.659 (65.92%)	1.330
M≥6.2	1.616	0.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.756 (75.57%)	[75.06% 76.08%]	0.656 (65.60%)	1.090
M≥6.3	1.307	0.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.678 (67.75%)	[67.19% 68.31%]	0.629 (62.94%)	0.912
M≥6.4	1.028	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.621 (62.09%)	[61.51% 62.67%]	0.593 (59.27%)	0.721
M≥6.5	0.813	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.557 (55.71%)	[55.12% 56.30%]	0.540 (54.03%)	0.576
M≥6.6	0.592	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.449 (44.93%)	[44.33% 45.52%]	0.441 (44.11%)	0.426
M≥6.7	0.480	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.384 (38.43%)	[37.85% 39.01%]	0.377 (37.74%)	0.347
M≥6.8	0.434	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.357 (35.73%)	[35.16% 36.31%]	0.353 (35.25%)	0.317
M≥6.9	0.214	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.175 (17.53%)	[17.08% 17.99%]	0.171 (17.14%)	0.154
M≥7	0.179	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.150 (14.97%)	[14.55% 15.40%]	0.147 (14.74%)	0.130
M≥7.1	0.160	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.136 (13.55%)	[13.15% 13.97%]	0.134 (13.40%)	0.117
M≥7.2	0.117	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.101 (10.08%)	[9.72% 10.45%]	0.100 (9.98%)	0.088
M≥7.3	0.094	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.083 (8.33%)	[8.01% 8.67%]	0.083 (8.30%)	0.071
M≥7.4	0.072	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.066 (6.63%)	[6.34% 6.93%]	0.066 (6.61%)	0.054
M≥7.5	0.059	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.056 (5.56%)	[5.29% 5.84%]	0.056 (5.56%)	0.044
M≥7.6	0.044	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.042 (4.16%)	[3.93% 4.41%]	0.042 (4.16%)	0.034
M≥7.7	0.031	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.030 (3.01%)	[2.81% 3.22%]	0.030 (3.01%)	0.024
M≥7.8	0.026	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.026 (2.59%)	[2.41% 2.79%]	0.026 (2.59%)	0.021
M≥7.9	0.017	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.017 (1.69%)	[1.55% 1.86%]	0.017 (1.69%)	0.013
M≥8	8.36E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	8.36E-3 (0.84%)	[0.73% 0.95%]	8.36E-3 (0.84%)	6.58E-3
M≥8.1	2.15E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.15E-3 (0.21%)	[0.16% 0.28%]	2.15E-3 (0.21%)	1.81E-3
M≥8.2	4.81E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.81E-4 (0.05%)	[0.03% 0.08%]	4.81E-4 (0.05%)	4.07E-4
M≥8.3	1.48E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.48E-4 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.04%]	1.48E-4 (0.01%)	1.48E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 27036 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 27036 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 27036 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 27036 catalogs
1 wk Probability (thin red line): 1 week probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 wk Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 27036 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 wk Probability	1 wk Prob 95% Conf	1 wk Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	10667.327	8874.000	19987.000	9873.000	9413.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	6738.051
M≥2.6	8493.361	7054.000	15903.000	7860.000	7397.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	5364.664
M≥2.7	6758.920	5605.000	12646.000	6256.000	5950.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	4269.074
M≥2.8	5376.414	4451.000	10041.000	4978.000	4795.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	3395.853
M≥2.9	4275.724	3533.000	7993.000	3961.000	3924.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	2700.719
M≥3	3399.440	2802.000	6351.000	3150.000	3086.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	2147.214
M≥3.1	2702.197	2221.000	5055.000	2505.000	2403.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	1706.796
M≥3.2	2147.564	1759.000	4021.000	1992.000	1886.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	1356.469
M≥3.3	1706.390	1392.000	3205.000	1583.000	1500.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	1077.842
M≥3.4	1355.662	1099.000	2545.000	1258.000	1214.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	856.292
M≥3.5	1076.891	869.000	2019.000	1000.000	972.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	680.158
M≥3.6	855.349	686.000	1609.000	795.000	771.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	540.368
M≥3.7	679.349	540.000	1284.000	632.000	611.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	429.242
M≥3.8	539.437	425.000	1016.000	502.000	487.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	340.916
M≥3.9	428.254	333.000	806.000	399.000	385.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	270.658
M≥4	340.013	262.000	642.000	317.000	313.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	214.888
M≥4.1	269.957	204.000	509.000	252.000	242.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	170.685
M≥4.2	214.141	159.000	403.000	200.000	196.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	135.427
M≥4.3	169.840	124.000	320.000	159.000	152.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	107.432
M≥4.4	134.694	96.000	255.000	126.000	121.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	85.236
M≥4.5	106.733	74.000	203.000	100.000	93.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	67.576
M≥4.6	84.488	57.000	161.000	79.000	77.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	53.526
M≥4.7	66.837	44.000	129.000	63.000	61.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	42.363
M≥4.8	52.835	33.000	103.000	50.000	45.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	33.516
M≥4.9	41.752	25.000	82.000	39.000	36.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	26.513
M≥5	32.911	18.000	65.000	31.000	30.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	20.923
M≥5.1	25.892	14.000	52.000	24.000	23.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	16.492
M≥5.2	20.340	10.000	41.000	19.000	18.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	12.985
M≥5.3	15.900	7.000	33.000	15.000	14.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	10.181
M≥5.4	12.383	5.000	27.000	11.000	11.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.591 (59.07%)	7.956
M≥5.5	9.573	3.000	21.000	9.000	8.000	1.000 (99.95%)	[99.92% 99.97%]	0.591 (59.07%)	6.178
M≥5.6	7.355	2.000	17.000	7.000	6.000	0.998 (99.76%)	[99.69% 99.81%]	0.591 (59.07%)	4.777
M≥5.7	5.584	1.000	14.000	5.000	4.000	0.991 (99.07%)	[98.94% 99.18%]	0.591 (59.07%)	3.654
M≥5.8	4.169	0.000	11.000	4.000	3.000	0.969 (96.93%)	[96.72% 97.13%]	0.591 (59.07%)	2.760
M≥5.9	3.052	0.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	0.926 (92.57%)	[92.25% 92.88%]	0.591 (59.07%)	2.049
M≥6	2.255	0.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.853 (85.35%)	[84.92% 85.76%]	0.591 (59.07%)	1.545
M≥6.1	1.691	0.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.761 (76.13%)	[75.61% 76.63%]	0.590 (59.04%)	1.186
M≥6.2	1.355	0.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.686 (68.59%)	[68.04% 69.15%]	0.588 (58.77%)	0.978
M≥6.3	1.109	0.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.609 (60.85%)	[60.27% 61.43%]	0.563 (56.31%)	0.821
M≥6.4	0.869	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.554 (55.38%)	[54.79% 55.98%]	0.528 (52.81%)	0.646
M≥6.5	0.685	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.492 (49.23%)	[48.63% 49.83%]	0.477 (47.74%)	0.514
M≥6.6	0.503	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.394 (39.39%)	[38.81% 39.98%]	0.387 (38.72%)	0.382
M≥6.7	0.408	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.336 (33.60%)	[33.04% 34.17%]	0.330 (33.04%)	0.311
M≥6.8	0.370	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.313 (31.26%)	[30.71% 31.82%]	0.309 (30.89%)	0.285
M≥6.9	0.184	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.154 (15.38%)	[14.96% 15.82%]	0.151 (15.09%)	0.141
M≥7	0.155	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.132 (13.16%)	[12.76% 13.57%]	0.130 (12.99%)	0.119
M≥7.1	0.140	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.120 (11.99%)	[11.61% 12.39%]	0.119 (11.87%)	0.108
M≥7.2	0.104	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.091 (9.07%)	[8.73% 9.42%]	0.090 (9.00%)	0.082
M≥7.3	0.084	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.075 (7.54%)	[7.23% 7.86%]	0.075 (7.52%)	0.066
M≥7.4	0.065	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.060 (6.00%)	[5.72% 6.29%]	0.060 (5.98%)	0.051
M≥7.5	0.053	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.050 (5.03%)	[4.77% 5.30%]	0.050 (5.02%)	0.041
M≥7.6	0.039	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.038 (3.78%)	[3.55% 4.01%]	0.038 (3.77%)	0.032
M≥7.7	0.028	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.027 (2.74%)	[2.55% 2.94%]	0.027 (2.74%)	0.023
M≥7.8	0.024	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.024 (2.38%)	[2.20% 2.57%]	0.024 (2.38%)	0.020
M≥7.9	0.015	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.015 (1.53%)	[1.39% 1.69%]	0.015 (1.53%)	0.013
M≥8	7.43E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	[0.65% 0.86%]	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	6.14E-3
M≥8.1	1.89E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.89E-3 (0.19%)	[0.14% 0.25%]	1.89E-3 (0.19%)	1.66E-3
M≥8.2	4.07E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.07E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.08%]	4.07E-4 (0.04%)	3.70E-4
M≥8.3	1.48E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.48E-4 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.04%]	1.48E-4 (0.01%)	1.48E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 27036 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 27036 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 27036 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 27036 catalogs
1 d Probability (thin red line): 1 day probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 d Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 27036 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 d Probability	1 d Prob 95% Conf	1 d Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	7254.748	6245.000	12616.000	6778.000	6630.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	5182.969
M≥2.6	5776.233	4962.000	10035.000	5399.000	5211.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	4126.482
M≥2.7	4596.640	3941.000	7991.000	4298.000	4167.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	3283.857
M≥2.8	3656.589	3127.000	6362.000	3421.000	3316.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	2612.315
M≥2.9	2908.008	2479.000	5055.000	2722.000	2630.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	2077.620
M≥3	2311.932	1964.000	4028.000	2165.000	2097.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	1651.714
M≥3.1	1837.765	1553.000	3196.000	1722.000	1654.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	1312.913
M≥3.2	1460.594	1229.000	2540.000	1370.000	1335.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	1043.480
M≥3.3	1160.479	971.000	2016.000	1090.000	1044.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	829.050
M≥3.4	921.894	766.000	1603.000	866.000	839.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	658.668
M≥3.5	732.277	603.000	1275.000	689.000	655.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	523.166
M≥3.6	581.661	475.000	1016.000	548.000	530.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	415.677
M≥3.7	461.990	373.000	808.000	435.000	421.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	330.178
M≥3.8	366.892	293.000	642.000	346.000	334.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	262.273
M≥3.9	291.272	229.000	510.000	275.000	266.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	208.220
M≥4	231.301	179.000	406.000	219.000	211.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	165.337
M≥4.1	183.667	140.000	322.000	174.000	169.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	131.342
M≥4.2	145.732	109.000	257.000	138.000	133.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	104.236
M≥4.3	115.583	84.000	204.000	109.000	109.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	82.677
M≥4.4	91.674	65.000	163.000	87.000	84.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	65.605
M≥4.5	72.661	50.000	131.000	69.000	63.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	52.007
M≥4.6	57.530	38.000	104.000	55.000	53.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	41.200
M≥4.7	45.534	29.000	84.000	43.000	40.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	32.623
M≥4.8	36.020	21.000	67.000	34.000	32.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	25.828
M≥4.9	28.489	16.000	54.000	27.000	27.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	20.437
M≥5	22.478	12.000	43.000	21.000	20.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	16.133
M≥5.1	17.706	8.000	35.000	17.000	16.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	12.724
M≥5.2	13.922	6.000	28.000	13.000	12.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	10.025
M≥5.3	10.903	4.000	23.000	10.000	9.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.487 (48.68%)	7.870
M≥5.4	8.506	3.000	18.000	8.000	8.000	0.999 (99.94%)	[99.91% 99.97%]	0.487 (48.68%)	6.158
M≥5.5	6.588	2.000	15.000	6.000	5.000	0.997 (99.68%)	[99.60% 99.74%]	0.487 (48.68%)	4.789
M≥5.6	5.079	1.000	12.000	5.000	4.000	0.987 (98.74%)	[98.59% 98.86%]	0.487 (48.68%)	3.711
M≥5.7	3.880	0.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	0.966 (96.56%)	[96.34% 96.78%]	0.487 (48.68%)	2.852
M≥5.8	2.918	0.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	0.920 (92.03%)	[91.70% 92.35%]	0.487 (48.68%)	2.165
M≥5.9	2.157	0.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.846 (84.60%)	[84.16% 85.03%]	0.487 (48.68%)	1.618
M≥6	1.619	0.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.749 (74.93%)	[74.40% 75.44%]	0.487 (48.68%)	1.231
M≥6.1	1.234	0.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.647 (64.71%)	[64.14% 65.28%]	0.487 (48.66%)	0.956
M≥6.2	1.009	0.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.573 (57.35%)	[56.75% 57.94%]	0.484 (48.43%)	0.798
M≥6.3	0.841	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.503 (50.34%)	[49.74% 50.93%]	0.463 (46.35%)	0.677
M≥6.4	0.657	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.454 (45.41%)	[44.82% 46.01%]	0.432 (43.17%)	0.531
M≥6.5	0.517	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.398 (39.85%)	[39.26% 40.43%]	0.386 (38.57%)	0.420
M≥6.6	0.383	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.314 (31.40%)	[30.85% 31.96%]	0.309 (30.90%)	0.313
M≥6.7	0.311	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.266 (26.61%)	[26.08% 27.14%]	0.262 (26.22%)	0.256
M≥6.8	0.285	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.248 (24.82%)	[24.30% 25.34%]	0.246 (24.56%)	0.235
M≥6.9	0.143	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.123 (12.29%)	[11.90% 12.69%]	0.121 (12.10%)	0.118
M≥7	0.121	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.106 (10.56%)	[10.20% 10.93%]	0.105 (10.46%)	0.100
M≥7.1	0.109	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.096 (9.63%)	[9.28% 9.99%]	0.096 (9.56%)	0.091
M≥7.2	0.083	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.074 (7.43%)	[7.12% 7.75%]	0.074 (7.39%)	0.071
M≥7.3	0.068	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.062 (6.19%)	[5.91% 6.48%]	0.062 (6.17%)	0.057
M≥7.4	0.052	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.049 (4.91%)	[4.66% 5.17%]	0.049 (4.90%)	0.044
M≥7.5	0.043	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.041 (4.12%)	[3.89% 4.37%]	0.041 (4.12%)	0.036
M≥7.6	0.033	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.032 (3.17%)	[2.97% 3.39%]	0.032 (3.17%)	0.028
M≥7.7	0.024	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.023 (2.35%)	[2.17% 2.54%]	0.023 (2.35%)	0.021
M≥7.8	0.020	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.020 (2.03%)	[1.86% 2.20%]	0.020 (2.03%)	0.018
M≥7.9	0.013	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.013 (1.26%)	[1.14% 1.41%]	0.013 (1.26%)	0.011
M≥8	6.10E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.10E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	6.10E-3 (0.61%)	5.40E-3
M≥8.1	1.70E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.70E-3 (0.17%)	[0.13% 0.23%]	1.70E-3 (0.17%)	1.55E-3
M≥8.2	3.33E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.33E-4 (0.03%)	[0.02% 0.07%]	3.33E-4 (0.03%)	3.33E-4
M≥8.3	1.48E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.48E-4 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.04%]	1.48E-4 (0.01%)	1.48E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 27036 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 27036 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 27036 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 27036 catalogs
1 hr Probability (thin red line): 1 hour probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 hr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 27036 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 hr Probability	1 hr Prob 95% Conf	1 hr Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	2579.010	2355.000	3468.000	2494.000	2457.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	2279.883
M≥2.6	2053.394	1868.000	2765.000	1987.000	1969.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	1815.137
M≥2.7	1634.047	1478.000	2195.000	1582.000	1567.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	1444.520
M≥2.8	1299.937	1169.000	1750.000	1259.000	1251.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	1149.183
M≥2.9	1033.930	925.000	1393.000	1002.000	993.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	914.071
M≥3	822.018	730.000	1111.000	797.000	790.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	726.715
M≥3.1	653.436	574.000	886.000	634.000	626.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	577.665
M≥3.2	519.382	452.000	708.000	504.000	498.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	459.150
M≥3.3	412.673	356.000	561.000	401.000	395.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	364.833
M≥3.4	327.865	279.000	447.000	319.000	317.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	289.874
M≥3.5	260.416	219.000	354.000	253.000	253.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	230.236
M≥3.6	206.909	170.000	283.000	202.000	202.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	182.960
M≥3.7	164.344	133.000	225.000	160.000	158.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	145.344
M≥3.8	130.553	104.000	180.000	127.000	126.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	115.454
M≥3.9	103.672	80.000	143.000	101.000	100.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	91.699
M≥4	82.323	62.000	115.000	80.000	79.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	72.812
M≥4.1	65.401	48.000	93.000	64.000	63.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	57.849
M≥4.2	51.918	36.000	75.000	51.000	48.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	45.916
M≥4.3	41.174	27.000	61.000	40.000	41.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	36.416
M≥4.4	32.683	21.000	50.000	32.000	31.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	28.906
M≥4.5	25.933	15.000	41.000	25.000	25.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	22.938
M≥4.6	20.566	11.000	33.000	20.000	19.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	18.192
M≥4.7	16.291	8.000	27.000	16.000	16.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	14.412
M≥4.8	12.911	6.000	23.000	12.000	13.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	11.426
M≥4.9	10.224	4.000	19.000	10.000	9.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.98% 100.00%]	0.261 (26.07%)	9.050
M≥5	8.091	3.000	16.000	8.000	7.000	0.999 (99.94%)	[99.90% 99.96%]	0.261 (26.07%)	7.164
M≥5.1	6.385	2.000	13.000	6.000	5.000	0.997 (99.71%)	[99.64% 99.77%]	0.261 (26.07%)	5.655
M≥5.2	5.041	1.000	11.000	5.000	4.000	0.991 (99.12%)	[99.00% 99.23%]	0.261 (26.07%)	4.470
M≥5.3	3.959	1.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	0.976 (97.61%)	[97.42% 97.78%]	0.261 (26.07%)	3.516
M≥5.4	3.104	0.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	0.947 (94.66%)	[94.38% 94.92%]	0.261 (26.07%)	2.761
M≥5.5	2.427	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.896 (89.59%)	[89.22% 89.95%]	0.261 (26.07%)	2.163
M≥5.6	1.891	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.825 (82.52%)	[82.06% 82.97%]	0.261 (26.07%)	1.689
M≥5.7	1.465	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.740 (74.00%)	[73.47% 74.52%]	0.261 (26.07%)	1.311
M≥5.8	1.118	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.640 (64.03%)	[63.46% 64.61%]	0.261 (26.07%)	1.005
M≥5.9	0.844	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.534 (53.36%)	[52.77% 53.96%]	0.261 (26.07%)	0.762
M≥6	0.650	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.438 (43.76%)	[43.16% 44.35%]	0.261 (26.07%)	0.590
M≥6.1	0.513	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.359 (35.94%)	[35.37% 36.52%]	0.261 (26.05%)	0.470
M≥6.2	0.433	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.311 (31.05%)	[30.50% 31.61%]	0.259 (25.90%)	0.399
M≥6.3	0.373	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.269 (26.88%)	[26.36% 27.42%]	0.248 (24.76%)	0.345
M≥6.4	0.283	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.231 (23.12%)	[22.62% 23.63%]	0.220 (22.00%)	0.263
M≥6.5	0.221	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.193 (19.33%)	[18.87% 19.81%]	0.187 (18.73%)	0.206
M≥6.6	0.168	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.151 (15.09%)	[14.67% 15.52%]	0.149 (14.93%)	0.157
M≥6.7	0.137	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.126 (12.63%)	[12.24% 13.03%]	0.125 (12.52%)	0.128
M≥6.8	0.126	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.118 (11.77%)	[11.39% 12.16%]	0.117 (11.71%)	0.118
M≥6.9	0.068	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.062 (6.22%)	[5.93% 6.51%]	0.062 (6.15%)	0.064
M≥7	0.058	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.054 (5.40%)	[5.14% 5.68%]	0.054 (5.37%)	0.055
M≥7.1	0.054	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.050 (4.97%)	[4.72% 5.24%]	0.049 (4.95%)	0.050
M≥7.2	0.043	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.040 (4.04%)	[3.81% 4.28%]	0.040 (4.02%)	0.041
M≥7.3	0.034	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.033 (3.28%)	[3.07% 3.50%]	0.033 (3.27%)	0.033
M≥7.4	0.027	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.026 (2.62%)	[2.44% 2.82%]	0.026 (2.62%)	0.026
M≥7.5	0.023	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.022 (2.20%)	[2.03% 2.38%]	0.022 (2.20%)	0.021
M≥7.6	0.018	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.018 (1.76%)	[1.61% 1.93%]	0.018 (1.76%)	0.017
M≥7.7	0.014	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.014 (1.41%)	[1.28% 1.56%]	0.014 (1.41%)	0.014
M≥7.8	0.012	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.012 (1.22%)	[1.09% 1.36%]	0.012 (1.22%)	0.012
M≥7.9	7.58E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.58E-3 (0.76%)	[0.66% 0.87%]	7.58E-3 (0.76%)	7.32E-3
M≥8	3.51E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.51E-3 (0.35%)	[0.29% 0.43%]	3.51E-3 (0.35%)	3.33E-3
M≥8.1	9.62E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	9.62E-4 (0.10%)	[0.06% 0.14%]	9.62E-4 (0.10%)	9.62E-4
M≥8.2	2.22E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.22E-4 (0.02%)	[0.01% 0.05%]	2.22E-4 (0.02%)	2.22E-4
M≥8.3	7.40E-5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.40E-5 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.03%]	7.40E-5 (0.01%)	7.40E-5
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.02%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	0.999 [0.999 - 1.000]	0.999	2.42E-4	4128.43	2.40E-4
1 Day	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	5.79E-3	172.61	5.73E-3
1 Week	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	0.040	25.09	0.039
1 Month	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	0.160	6.25	0.158
1 Year	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	0.880	1.14	0.878
10 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	1.000	1	1.000
30 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	1.000	1 *	1.000
100 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	1.000	1 *	1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	0.435 [0.429 - 0.441]	0.435	2.83E-5	15398.35	2.58E-5
1 Day	0.747 [0.742 - 0.752]	0.747	6.78E-4	1101.32	6.19E-4
1 Week	0.852 [0.848 - 0.856]	0.851	4.74E-3	179.77	4.33E-3
1 Month	0.903 [0.900 - 0.907]	0.901	0.020	44.82	0.018
1 Year	0.962 [0.960 - 0.964]	0.951	0.220	4.38	0.202
10 Years	0.998 [0.997 - 0.998]	0.973	0.914	1.09	0.896
30 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	0.999	1 *	0.999
100 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	1.000	1 *	1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	0.054 [0.051 - 0.057]	0.054	4.92E-6	10970.85	4.51E-6
1 Day	0.105 [0.101 - 0.109]	0.105	1.18E-4	890.65	1.08E-4
1 Week	0.131 [0.127 - 0.135]	0.131	8.26E-4	159.12	7.57E-4
1 Month	0.151 [0.147 - 0.156]	0.148	3.53E-3	42.82	3.24E-3
1 Year	0.211 [0.206 - 0.215]	0.176	0.042	4.99	0.039
10 Years	0.479 [0.476 - 0.482]	0.201	0.348	1.38	0.327
30 Years	0.770 [0.769 - 0.771] *	*	0.712	1.08 *	0.695
100 Years	0.977 [0.977 - 0.977] *	*	0.971	1.01 *	0.981

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	3.51E-3 [2.86E-3 - 4.31E-3]	3.51E-3	3.75E-7	9368.96	3.19E-7
1 Day	6.11E-3 [5.23E-3 - 7.13E-3]	6.10E-3	9.00E-6	678.94	7.66E-6
1 Week	7.50E-3 [6.52E-3 - 8.61E-3]	7.43E-3	6.30E-5	118.98	5.36E-5
1 Month	8.63E-3 [7.59E-3 - 9.80E-3]	8.36E-3	2.70E-4	31.95	2.30E-4
1 Year	0.013 [0.012 - 0.014]	9.62E-3	3.28E-3	3.92	2.79E-3
10 Years	0.044 [0.042 - 0.045]	0.011	0.033	1.31	0.028
30 Years	0.111 [0.110 - 0.112] *	*	0.102	1.09 *	0.080
100 Years	0.301 [0.300 - 0.302] *	*	0.293	1.03 *	0.244

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Trigger Rupture Depth Map

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Fault Distances To Triggers

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Section Name	Strike, Dip, Rake	Hypocenter In Polygon?	Surface In Polygon?	Minimum Surface Distance (km)	Minimum Surface Poly Distance (km)	Minimum Hypo Distance (km)	Minimum Hypo Poly Distance (km)
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	122, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	120, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	135, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (Mojave S)	116, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek)	114, 76, 179	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	290, 58, 174	false	true	0.073	0.000	N/A	N/A
Mission Creek	275, 65, 174	false	true	0.101	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Gorgonio Pass	281, 60, 100	false	true	0.305	0.000	N/A	N/A
Cucamonga	257, 45, 67	false	true	0.313	0.000	N/A	N/A
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	160, 90, -173	false	true	0.462	0.000	N/A	N/A
Pinto Mtn	87, 90, -3	false	true	0.995	0.000	N/A	N/A
Cleghorn	96, 90, 6	false	true	2.598	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	138, 90, 180	false	true	2.987	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (Lytle Creek connector)	135, 90, 179	false	true	4.621	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	133, 90, 180	false	true	10.449	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Gabriel (Extension)	276, 61, -175	false	false	1.751	1.197	N/A	N/A
Burnt Mtn	175, 67, 175	false	false	3.529	0.532	N/A	N/A
North Frontal (West)	80, 49, 80	false	false	4.698	3.696	N/A	N/A
Fontana (Seismicity)	223, 80, 6	false	false	8.882	6.567	N/A	N/A
Blue Cut	87, 90, 4	false	false	8.890	0.556	N/A	N/A
Joshua Tree (Seismicity)	181, 90, 180	false	false	9.545	2.782	N/A	N/A
Eureka Peak	345, 90, -175	false	false	9.956	0.606	N/A	N/A
Clamshell-Sawpit	244, 50, 88	false	false	12.917	12.886	N/A	N/A
North Frontal (East)	104, 41, 71	false	false	14.230	11.188	N/A	N/A
Sierra Madre	288, 53, 78	false	false	16.583	16.547	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	139, 90, 180	false	false	18.587	8.499	N/A	N/A
Elmore Ranch	220, 90, 2	false	false	19.255	9.353	N/A	N/A

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Duration	p0.0 %-ile	p25.0 %-ile	p50.0 %-ile	p75.0 %-ile	p90.0 %-ile	p95.0 %-ile	p97.5 %-ile	p98.0 %-ile	p99.0 %-ile	p99.996301 %-ile
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
10 Year

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 232 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.6891552	0.312 (31.17%)	[30.62% 31.73%]	0.400 (40.03%)	[39.45% 40.62%]	0.460 (46.05%)	[45.45% 46.65%]	0.545 (54.55%)	[53.95% 55.14%]	0.612 (61.24%)	[60.65% 61.82%]	0.46767274
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.3818612	0.164 (16.37%)	[15.93% 16.82%]	0.214 (21.42%)	[20.93% 21.91%]	0.248 (24.85%)	[24.33% 25.37%]	0.304 (30.36%)	[29.82% 30.92%]	0.347 (34.69%)	[34.12% 35.26%]	0.25680575
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.2795902	0.089 (8.94%)	[8.61% 9.29%]	0.092 (9.20%)	[8.86% 9.55%]	0.094 (9.35%)	[9.01% 9.71%]	0.097 (9.67%)	[9.32% 10.03%]	0.099 (9.93%)	[9.58% 10.30%]	0.21227252
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.16877496	0.086 (8.58%)	[8.25% 8.92%]	0.103 (10.32%)	[9.96% 10.69%]	0.116 (11.58%)	[11.20% 11.97%]	0.134 (13.38%)	[12.98% 13.79%]	0.147 (14.68%)	[14.27% 15.11%]	0.11721408
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.16237609	0.078 (7.79%)	[7.47% 8.11%]	0.096 (9.62%)	[9.27% 9.98%]	0.109 (10.85%)	[10.49% 11.23%]	0.127 (12.68%)	[12.28% 13.08%]	0.140 (13.97%)	[13.56% 14.39%]	0.11358929
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.095502295	0.047 (4.74%)	[4.49% 5.00%]	0.060 (5.99%)	[5.71% 6.28%]	0.068 (6.83%)	[6.53% 7.14%]	0.081 (8.11%)	[7.79% 8.44%]	0.093 (9.30%)	[8.95% 9.65%]	0.062694184
Imperial	0.09084184	0.045 (4.47%)	[4.23% 4.72%]	0.057 (5.68%)	[5.41% 5.96%]	0.065 (6.49%)	[6.20% 6.79%]	0.077 (7.71%)	[7.40% 8.04%]	0.089 (8.86%)	[8.52% 9.21%]	0.059143364
Pinto Mtn	0.08329634	0.027 (2.74%)	[2.55% 2.94%]	0.039 (3.88%)	[3.65% 4.12%]	0.049 (4.87%)	[4.62% 5.13%]	0.065 (6.52%)	[6.23% 6.82%]	0.080 (8.01%)	[7.69% 8.34%]	0.042942744
Mission Creek	0.07708241	0.029 (2.91%)	[2.72% 3.12%]	0.040 (4.02%)	[3.79% 4.26%]	0.049 (4.86%)	[4.60% 5.12%]	0.063 (6.31%)	[6.02% 6.61%]	0.076 (7.57%)	[7.26% 7.89%]	0.04752922
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev	0.045642845	8.99E-3 (0.90%)	[0.79% 1.02%]	0.014 (1.37%)	[1.24% 1.52%]	0.018 (1.81%)	[1.66% 1.98%]	0.028 (2.80%)	[2.61% 3.01%]	0.038 (3.84%)	[3.61% 4.07%]	0.010578488
Blue Cut	0.03646989	9.25E-3 (0.92%)	[0.82% 1.05%]	0.014 (1.42%)	[1.29% 1.57%]	0.019 (1.89%)	[1.74% 2.07%]	0.027 (2.75%)	[2.56% 2.95%]	0.035 (3.54%)	[3.33% 3.77%]	0.011170291
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.034583516	0.022 (2.19%)	[2.02% 2.38%]	0.026 (2.56%)	[2.38% 2.76%]	0.028 (2.78%)	[2.59% 2.99%]	0.031 (3.11%)	[2.91% 3.33%]	0.034 (3.43%)	[3.22% 3.65%]	0.02481876
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.030108005	0.019 (1.86%)	[1.70% 2.03%]	0.022 (2.19%)	[2.02% 2.37%]	0.024 (2.39%)	[2.21% 2.58%]	0.027 (2.67%)	[2.49% 2.88%]	0.030 (2.97%)	[2.77% 3.18%]	0.021378903
Cleghorn	0.02807368	9.58E-3 (0.96%)	[0.85% 1.08%]	0.014 (1.38%)	[1.24% 1.52%]	0.017 (1.73%)	[1.58% 1.90%]	0.023 (2.27%)	[2.09% 2.45%]	0.028 (2.80%)	[2.61% 3.01%]	0.01623761
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.025928391	0.015 (1.55%)	[1.41% 1.71%]	0.018 (1.85%)	[1.69% 2.02%]	0.020 (2.04%)	[1.87% 2.22%]	0.023 (2.29%)	[2.12% 2.48%]	0.026 (2.59%)	[2.40% 2.78%]	0.01816097
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.023783104	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.26% 1.55%]	0.017 (1.68%)	[1.53% 1.84%]	0.018 (1.85%)	[1.69% 2.02%]	0.021 (2.10%)	[1.93% 2.28%]	0.024 (2.37%)	[2.19% 2.56%]	0.016459536
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.01701435	7.40E-3 (0.74%)	[0.64% 0.85%]	9.51E-3 (0.95%)	[0.84% 1.08%]	0.011 (1.13%)	[1.01% 1.26%]	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.26% 1.55%]	0.017 (1.70%)	[1.55% 1.86%]	0.010023672
Cucamonga	0.016496522	6.55E-3 (0.65%)	[0.56% 0.76%]	8.32E-3 (0.83%)	[0.73% 0.95%]	0.010 (1.02%)	[0.90% 1.15%]	0.013 (1.34%)	[1.21% 1.48%]	0.016 (1.64%)	[1.50% 1.80%]	0.0092469305
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.016311584	8.58E-3 (0.86%)	[0.75% 0.98%]	0.011 (1.07%)	[0.95% 1.20%]	0.012 (1.19%)	[1.07% 1.33%]	0.014 (1.35%)	[1.22% 1.50%]	0.016 (1.58%)	[1.43% 1.73%]	0.010356561
Burnt Mtn	0.014610149	4.11E-3 (0.41%)	[0.34% 0.50%]	6.03E-3 (0.60%)	[0.52% 0.70%]	7.47E-3 (0.75%)	[0.65% 0.86%]	0.011 (1.08%)	[0.97% 1.22%]	0.015 (1.46%)	[1.32% 1.61%]	0.0052152686
Cleghorn Lake	0.012575825	2.03E-3 (0.20%)	[0.15% 0.27%]	3.22E-3 (0.32%)	[0.26% 0.40%]	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	[0.43% 0.61%]	8.14E-3 (0.81%)	[0.71% 0.93%]	0.012 (1.17%)	[1.05% 1.31%]	0.0024411895
San Gorgonio Pass	0.012575825	4.55E-3 (0.45%)	[0.38% 0.54%]	6.66E-3 (0.67%)	[0.57% 0.77%]	8.06E-3 (0.81%)	[0.70% 0.92%]	0.011 (1.07%)	[0.95% 1.20%]	0.013 (1.26%)	[1.13% 1.40%]	0.0057330965
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.011799083	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	[0.43% 0.61%]	6.62E-3 (0.66%)	[0.57% 0.77%]	7.99E-3 (0.80%)	[0.70% 0.91%]	9.88E-3 (0.99%)	[0.87% 1.11%]	0.012 (1.18%)	[1.06% 1.32%]	0.0070646545
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.011133304	4.77E-3 (0.48%)	[0.40% 0.57%]	6.10E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	7.47E-3 (0.75%)	[0.65% 0.86%]	9.32E-3 (0.93%)	[0.82% 1.06%]	0.011 (1.11%)	[0.99% 1.25%]	0.0065468266
Cleghorn Pass	0.010948366	1.33E-3 (0.13%)	[0.09% 0.19%]	2.37E-3 (0.24%)	[0.18% 0.30%]	3.62E-3 (0.36%)	[0.30% 0.44%]	6.44E-3 (0.64%)	[0.55% 0.75%]	9.73E-3 (0.97%)	[0.86% 1.10%]	0.0014795088

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 25 of 206 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.5427208	0.253 (25.30%)	[24.78% 25.82%]	0.326 (32.61%)	[32.05% 33.18%]	0.377 (37.70%)	[37.12% 38.28%]	0.451 (45.11%)	[44.51% 45.70%]	0.509 (50.91%)	[50.31% 51.51%]	0.36910045
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.29423732	0.130 (13.02%)	[12.62% 13.42%]	0.169 (16.92%)	[16.48% 17.38%]	0.195 (19.55%)	[19.08% 20.03%]	0.239 (23.89%)	[23.38% 24.40%]	0.273 (27.31%)	[26.78% 27.85%]	0.19769937
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.15642107	0.081 (8.14%)	[7.82% 8.48%]	0.099 (9.85%)	[9.50% 10.22%]	0.111 (11.05%)	[10.68% 11.43%]	0.128 (12.81%)	[12.41% 13.21%]	0.141 (14.08%)	[13.67% 14.50%]	0.10900281
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.13722444	0.069 (6.88%)	[6.58% 7.19%]	0.087 (8.66%)	[8.32% 9.00%]	0.099 (9.86%)	[9.51% 10.22%]	0.117 (11.72%)	[11.34% 12.11%]	0.131 (13.15%)	[12.75% 13.56%]	0.09553928
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.08562657	0.053 (5.31%)	[5.04% 5.58%]	0.060 (5.98%)	[5.70% 6.27%]	0.063 (6.32%)	[6.04% 6.62%]	0.069 (6.86%)	[6.57% 7.17%]	0.073 (7.29%)	[6.98% 7.60%]	0.06421068
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.08181684	0.042 (4.22%)	[3.98% 4.46%]	0.053 (5.30%)	[5.04% 5.58%]	0.060 (5.98%)	[5.71% 6.28%]	0.071 (7.06%)	[6.76% 7.37%]	0.080 (7.97%)	[7.65% 8.30%]	0.054815803
Imperial	0.07778518	0.040 (3.98%)	[3.76% 4.23%]	0.050 (5.03%)	[4.78% 5.30%]	0.057 (5.68%)	[5.41% 5.97%]	0.067 (6.70%)	[6.41% 7.01%]	0.076 (7.58%)	[7.27% 7.90%]	0.05174582
Mission Creek	0.07708241	0.029 (2.91%)	[2.72% 3.12%]	0.040 (4.02%)	[3.79% 4.26%]	0.049 (4.86%)	[4.60% 5.12%]	0.063 (6.31%)	[6.02% 6.61%]	0.076 (7.57%)	[7.26% 7.89%]	0.04752922
Pinto Mtn	0.07404941	0.025 (2.49%)	[2.30% 2.68%]	0.035 (3.50%)	[3.29% 3.73%]	0.044 (4.39%)	[4.15% 4.64%]	0.059 (5.85%)	[5.58% 6.14%]	0.072 (7.16%)	[6.86% 7.48%]	0.03891108
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.034583516	0.022 (2.19%)	[2.02% 2.38%]	0.026 (2.56%)	[2.38% 2.76%]	0.028 (2.78%)	[2.59% 2.99%]	0.031 (3.11%)	[2.91% 3.33%]	0.034 (3.43%)	[3.22% 3.65%]	0.02481876
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.030108005	0.019 (1.86%)	[1.70% 2.03%]	0.022 (2.19%)	[2.02% 2.37%]	0.024 (2.39%)	[2.21% 2.58%]	0.027 (2.67%)	[2.49% 2.88%]	0.030 (2.97%)	[2.77% 3.18%]	0.021378903
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.025854416	0.015 (1.55%)	[1.40% 1.70%]	0.018 (1.84%)	[1.69% 2.01%]	0.020 (2.03%)	[1.87% 2.21%]	0.023 (2.29%)	[2.12% 2.48%]	0.026 (2.58%)	[2.39% 2.78%]	0.01816097
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.023709128	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.26% 1.55%]	0.017 (1.68%)	[1.53% 1.84%]	0.018 (1.85%)	[1.69% 2.02%]	0.021 (2.10%)	[1.93% 2.28%]	0.024 (2.37%)	[2.19% 2.56%]	0.016459536
Cucamonga	0.016422547	6.51E-3 (0.65%)	[0.56% 0.76%]	8.29E-3 (0.83%)	[0.73% 0.95%]	0.010 (1.01%)	[0.90% 1.14%]	0.013 (1.33%)	[1.20% 1.48%]	0.016 (1.63%)	[1.49% 1.79%]	0.009209942
Blue Cut	0.01557183	3.70E-3 (0.37%)	[0.30% 0.45%]	5.70E-3 (0.57%)	[0.48% 0.67%]	7.69E-3 (0.77%)	[0.67% 0.88%]	0.012 (1.17%)	[1.05% 1.31%]	0.015 (1.55%)	[1.40% 1.70%]	0.0044015385
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.015201953	8.51E-3 (0.85%)	[0.75% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.04%)	[0.93% 1.17%]	0.012 (1.16%)	[1.04% 1.30%]	0.013 (1.31%)	[1.18% 1.46%]	0.015 (1.50%)	[1.36% 1.65%]	0.010319574
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.01346353	6.07E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	7.66E-3 (0.77%)	[0.67% 0.88%]	9.03E-3 (0.90%)	[0.79% 1.02%]	0.011 (1.10%)	[0.98% 1.23%]	0.013 (1.35%)	[1.21% 1.49%]	0.008211274
Burnt Mtn	0.013167628	3.59E-3 (0.36%)	[0.29% 0.44%]	5.29E-3 (0.53%)	[0.45% 0.62%]	6.58E-3 (0.66%)	[0.57% 0.76%]	9.65E-3 (0.97%)	[0.85% 1.09%]	0.013 (1.32%)	[1.19% 1.46%]	0.0046604527
San Gorgonio Pass	0.012575825	4.55E-3 (0.45%)	[0.38% 0.54%]	6.66E-3 (0.67%)	[0.57% 0.77%]	8.06E-3 (0.81%)	[0.70% 0.92%]	0.011 (1.07%)	[0.95% 1.20%]	0.013 (1.26%)	[1.13% 1.40%]	0.0057330965
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.011799083	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	[0.43% 0.61%]	6.62E-3 (0.66%)	[0.57% 0.77%]	7.99E-3 (0.80%)	[0.70% 0.91%]	9.88E-3 (0.99%)	[0.87% 1.11%]	0.012 (1.18%)	[1.06% 1.32%]	0.0070646545
Cleghorn	0.011614144	4.59E-3 (0.46%)	[0.38% 0.55%]	5.81E-3 (0.58%)	[0.50% 0.68%]	7.18E-3 (0.72%)	[0.62% 0.83%]	9.36E-3 (0.94%)	[0.83% 1.06%]	0.012 (1.16%)	[1.04% 1.30%]	0.006768753
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.011096316	4.77E-3 (0.48%)	[0.40% 0.57%]	6.10E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	7.47E-3 (0.75%)	[0.65% 0.86%]	9.32E-3 (0.93%)	[0.82% 1.06%]	0.011 (1.11%)	[0.99% 1.24%]	0.0065098386
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.010689451	4.44E-3 (0.44%)	[0.37% 0.53%]	5.81E-3 (0.58%)	[0.50% 0.68%]	6.99E-3 (0.70%)	[0.60% 0.81%]	8.91E-3 (0.89%)	[0.78% 1.01%]	0.011 (1.07%)	[0.95% 1.20%]	0.0061029736
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.009320905	4.99E-3 (0.50%)	[0.42% 0.59%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.53% 0.72%]	6.95E-3 (0.70%)	[0.60% 0.80%]	7.77E-3 (0.78%)	[0.68% 0.89%]	8.73E-3 (0.87%)	[0.77% 0.99%]	0.0063249003
Pleito	0.008174286	3.40E-3 (0.34%)	[0.28% 0.42%]	4.48E-3 (0.45%)	[0.37% 0.54%]	5.33E-3 (0.53%)	[0.45% 0.63%]	6.40E-3 (0.64%)	[0.55% 0.74%]	7.88E-3 (0.79%)	[0.69% 0.90%]	0.0020343247

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 25 of 174 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.10548898	0.056 (5.56%)	[5.29% 5.84%]	0.070 (6.99%)	[6.69% 7.30%]	0.079 (7.87%)	[7.55% 8.20%]	0.092 (9.18%)	[8.84% 9.54%]	0.102 (10.23%)	[9.88% 10.60%]	0.07393845
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.100273706	0.052 (5.23%)	[4.97% 5.50%]	0.066 (6.61%)	[6.32% 6.91%]	0.073 (7.35%)	[7.04% 7.67%]	0.087 (8.66%)	[8.33% 9.01%]	0.097 (9.72%)	[9.37% 10.08%]	0.069204025
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.08447995	0.049 (4.87%)	[4.62% 5.14%]	0.059 (5.87%)	[5.59% 6.15%]	0.065 (6.50%)	[6.21% 6.80%]	0.074 (7.39%)	[7.08% 7.71%]	0.081 (8.07%)	[7.75% 8.40%]	0.06102974
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.08359225	0.046 (4.62%)	[4.37% 4.88%]	0.058 (5.76%)	[5.49% 6.05%]	0.063 (6.35%)	[6.06% 6.65%]	0.074 (7.39%)	[7.08% 7.71%]	0.082 (8.23%)	[7.91% 8.57%]	0.058255658
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.06254624	0.035 (3.54%)	[3.32% 3.76%]	0.044 (4.39%)	[4.15% 4.64%]	0.048 (4.83%)	[4.58% 5.09%]	0.056 (5.56%)	[5.29% 5.84%]	0.062 (6.18%)	[5.90% 6.48%]	0.04320166
Imperial	0.05951324	0.033 (3.33%)	[3.12% 3.55%]	0.042 (4.15%)	[3.92% 4.40%]	0.046 (4.58%)	[4.33% 4.83%]	0.053 (5.29%)	[5.03% 5.56%]	0.059 (5.88%)	[5.61% 6.17%]	0.040982395
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.054852787	0.037 (3.68%)	[3.46% 3.92%]	0.042 (4.19%)	[3.96% 4.44%]	0.045 (4.48%)	[4.23% 4.73%]	0.049 (4.90%)	[4.65% 5.17%]	0.053 (5.26%)	[5.00% 5.54%]	0.041426245
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.034472555	0.022 (2.19%)	[2.02% 2.38%]	0.026 (2.56%)	[2.38% 2.76%]	0.028 (2.78%)	[2.59% 2.99%]	0.031 (3.11%)	[2.91% 3.33%]	0.034 (3.43%)	[3.21% 3.65%]	0.02481876
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.02970114	0.019 (1.86%)	[1.70% 2.03%]	0.022 (2.19%)	[2.02% 2.37%]	0.024 (2.39%)	[2.21% 2.58%]	0.027 (2.67%)	[2.48% 2.87%]	0.030 (2.96%)	[2.76% 3.17%]	0.021378903
Pinto Mtn	0.027666815	9.69E-3 (0.97%)	[0.86% 1.09%]	0.014 (1.36%)	[1.23% 1.51%]	0.017 (1.72%)	[1.57% 1.89%]	0.023 (2.27%)	[2.09% 2.45%]	0.027 (2.73%)	[2.54% 2.94%]	0.01575677
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.025780441	0.015 (1.54%)	[1.40% 1.70%]	0.018 (1.84%)	[1.68% 2.01%]	0.020 (2.03%)	[1.87% 2.21%]	0.023 (2.29%)	[2.11% 2.47%]	0.026 (2.57%)	[2.39% 2.77%]	0.018123982
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.023709128	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.26% 1.55%]	0.017 (1.68%)	[1.53% 1.84%]	0.018 (1.85%)	[1.69% 2.02%]	0.021 (2.10%)	[1.93% 2.28%]	0.024 (2.37%)	[2.19% 2.56%]	0.016459536
Mission Creek	0.02208167	8.62E-3 (0.86%)	[0.76% 0.98%]	0.012 (1.18%)	[1.06% 1.32%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.33% 1.62%]	0.019 (1.89%)	[1.73% 2.06%]	0.022 (2.20%)	[2.03% 2.39%]	0.014351236
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.015164965	8.51E-3 (0.85%)	[0.75% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.04%)	[0.93% 1.17%]	0.012 (1.16%)	[1.04% 1.30%]	0.013 (1.31%)	[1.18% 1.46%]	0.015 (1.50%)	[1.36% 1.65%]	0.010319574
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.012242936	5.77E-3 (0.58%)	[0.49% 0.68%]	7.18E-3 (0.72%)	[0.62% 0.83%]	8.40E-3 (0.84%)	[0.74% 0.96%]	0.010 (1.01%)	[0.90% 1.14%]	0.012 (1.22%)	[1.10% 1.36%]	0.0077304337
Cucamonga	0.01216896	4.62E-3 (0.46%)	[0.39% 0.55%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.53% 0.72%]	7.32E-3 (0.73%)	[0.64% 0.84%]	9.80E-3 (0.98%)	[0.87% 1.11%]	0.012 (1.21%)	[1.09% 1.35%]	0.006990679
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.011577156	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	[0.43% 0.61%]	6.55E-3 (0.65%)	[0.56% 0.76%]	7.88E-3 (0.79%)	[0.69% 0.90%]	9.69E-3 (0.97%)	[0.86% 1.09%]	0.012 (1.16%)	[1.04% 1.29%]	0.006990679
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.010985353	4.77E-3 (0.48%)	[0.40% 0.57%]	6.10E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	[0.65% 0.86%]	9.21E-3 (0.92%)	[0.81% 1.04%]	0.011 (1.10%)	[0.98% 1.23%]	0.0065098386
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.010578488	4.44E-3 (0.44%)	[0.37% 0.53%]	5.81E-3 (0.58%)	[0.50% 0.68%]	6.99E-3 (0.70%)	[0.60% 0.81%]	8.88E-3 (0.89%)	[0.78% 1.01%]	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.94% 1.19%]	0.006065986
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.009025004	4.99E-3 (0.50%)	[0.42% 0.59%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.53% 0.72%]	6.95E-3 (0.70%)	[0.60% 0.80%]	7.77E-3 (0.78%)	[0.68% 0.89%]	8.73E-3 (0.87%)	[0.77% 0.99%]	0.0063249003
Blue Cut	0.0077304337	1.89E-3 (0.19%)	[0.14% 0.25%]	2.89E-3 (0.29%)	[0.23% 0.36%]	3.99E-3 (0.40%)	[0.33% 0.48%]	5.70E-3 (0.57%)	[0.48% 0.67%]	7.73E-3 (0.77%)	[0.67% 0.89%]	0.001849386
San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek)	0.006583814	3.62E-3 (0.36%)	[0.30% 0.44%]	4.59E-3 (0.46%)	[0.38% 0.55%]	5.07E-3 (0.51%)	[0.43% 0.60%]	5.81E-3 (0.58%)	[0.50% 0.68%]	6.51E-3 (0.65%)	[0.56% 0.76%]	0.004327563
Sierra Madre	0.006250925	2.03E-3 (0.20%)	[0.15% 0.27%]	2.63E-3 (0.26%)	[0.21% 0.33%]	3.40E-3 (0.34%)	[0.28% 0.42%]	4.88E-3 (0.49%)	[0.41% 0.58%]	6.21E-3 (0.62%)	[0.53% 0.72%]	0.0032549193
San Gorgonio Pass	0.005807072	2.85E-3 (0.28%)	[0.23% 0.36%]	3.70E-3 (0.37%)	[0.30% 0.45%]	4.07E-3 (0.41%)	[0.34% 0.49%]	5.07E-3 (0.51%)	[0.43% 0.60%]	5.81E-3 (0.58%)	[0.50% 0.68%]	0.0036247966
San Jacinto (Coyote Creek)	0.005437195	2.33E-3 (0.23%)	[0.18% 0.30%]	3.07E-3 (0.31%)	[0.25% 0.38%]	3.77E-3 (0.38%)	[0.31% 0.46%]	4.59E-3 (0.46%)	[0.38% 0.55%]	5.44E-3 (0.54%)	[0.46% 0.64%]	0.003180944

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 118 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.040427577	0.024 (2.39%)	[2.22% 2.58%]	0.029 (2.90%)	[2.71% 3.11%]	0.031 (3.15%)	[2.94% 3.36%]	0.036 (3.62%)	[3.41% 3.86%]	0.040 (3.97%)	[3.74% 4.21%]	0.02822163
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.039022043	0.022 (2.25%)	[2.07% 2.43%]	0.028 (2.76%)	[2.57% 2.96%]	0.030 (3.01%)	[2.82% 3.23%]	0.035 (3.51%)	[3.30% 3.74%]	0.039 (3.88%)	[3.66% 4.12%]	0.026557183
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.037949402	0.024 (2.35%)	[2.18% 2.54%]	0.028 (2.78%)	[2.59% 2.98%]	0.030 (3.03%)	[2.83% 3.24%]	0.034 (3.41%)	[3.20% 3.63%]	0.037 (3.71%)	[3.49% 3.95%]	0.027333925
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.037764464	0.024 (2.43%)	[2.25% 2.62%]	0.028 (2.81%)	[2.62% 3.02%]	0.030 (3.04%)	[2.84% 3.25%]	0.034 (3.41%)	[3.20% 3.64%]	0.037 (3.74%)	[3.52% 3.98%]	0.027333925
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.03717266	0.022 (2.15%)	[1.98% 2.33%]	0.026 (2.63%)	[2.44% 2.83%]	0.029 (2.87%)	[2.67% 3.07%]	0.034 (3.35%)	[3.14% 3.57%]	0.037 (3.71%)	[3.49% 3.94%]	0.025188638
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.03421364	0.022 (2.18%)	[2.01% 2.36%]	0.025 (2.54%)	[2.36% 2.74%]	0.028 (2.76%)	[2.57% 2.97%]	0.031 (3.09%)	[2.89% 3.30%]	0.034 (3.40%)	[3.19% 3.63%]	0.02467081
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.030699808	0.018 (1.75%)	[1.60% 1.92%]	0.021 (2.13%)	[1.96% 2.31%]	0.023 (2.35%)	[2.17% 2.54%]	0.028 (2.76%)	[2.57% 2.96%]	0.031 (3.07%)	[2.87% 3.28%]	0.02041722
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.029590176	0.019 (1.85%)	[1.70% 2.02%]	0.022 (2.19%)	[2.02% 2.37%]	0.024 (2.39%)	[2.21% 2.58%]	0.027 (2.66%)	[2.48% 2.86%]	0.030 (2.95%)	[2.75% 3.16%]	0.021341914
Imperial	0.02840657	0.016 (1.58%)	[1.44% 1.74%]	0.019 (1.94%)	[1.78% 2.11%]	0.021 (2.15%)	[1.98% 2.33%]	0.025 (2.54%)	[2.36% 2.74%]	0.028 (2.84%)	[2.64% 3.04%]	0.018752774
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.025336588	0.015 (1.53%)	[1.39% 1.69%]	0.018 (1.83%)	[1.68% 2.00%]	0.020 (2.01%)	[1.85% 2.19%]	0.023 (2.26%)	[2.09% 2.45%]	0.025 (2.53%)	[2.35% 2.73%]	0.018086996
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.02337624	0.014 (1.39%)	[1.26% 1.54%]	0.017 (1.67%)	[1.52% 1.83%]	0.018 (1.84%)	[1.69% 2.01%]	0.021 (2.08%)	[1.92% 2.26%]	0.023 (2.34%)	[2.16% 2.53%]	0.016459536
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.014721112	8.47E-3 (0.85%)	[0.74% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.04%)	[0.92% 1.17%]	0.012 (1.15%)	[1.03% 1.29%]	0.013 (1.30%)	[1.17% 1.44%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.33% 1.62%]	0.010319574
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.011281255	5.44E-3 (0.54%)	[0.46% 0.64%]	6.69E-3 (0.67%)	[0.58% 0.78%]	7.84E-3 (0.78%)	[0.68% 0.90%]	9.43E-3 (0.94%)	[0.83% 1.07%]	0.011 (1.13%)	[1.01% 1.26%]	0.0072126053
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.010948366	4.96E-3 (0.50%)	[0.42% 0.59%]	6.25E-3 (0.63%)	[0.54% 0.73%]	7.51E-3 (0.75%)	[0.65% 0.86%]	9.25E-3 (0.92%)	[0.82% 1.05%]	0.011 (1.09%)	[0.98% 1.23%]	0.0066577895
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.010504512	4.62E-3 (0.46%)	[0.39% 0.55%]	5.92E-3 (0.59%)	[0.51% 0.69%]	7.18E-3 (0.72%)	[0.62% 0.83%]	8.88E-3 (0.89%)	[0.78% 1.01%]	0.011 (1.05%)	[0.93% 1.18%]	0.0062879124
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.01006066	4.36E-3 (0.44%)	[0.36% 0.52%]	5.66E-3 (0.57%)	[0.48% 0.66%]	6.84E-3 (0.68%)	[0.59% 0.79%]	8.51E-3 (0.85%)	[0.75% 0.97%]	0.010 (1.01%)	[0.89% 1.13%]	0.0059180353
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.008618139	4.96E-3 (0.50%)	[0.42% 0.59%]	6.10E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	6.92E-3 (0.69%)	[0.60% 0.80%]	7.69E-3 (0.77%)	[0.67% 0.88%]	8.62E-3 (0.86%)	[0.76% 0.98%]	0.0063249003
Cucamonga	0.006620802	2.74E-3 (0.27%)	[0.22% 0.35%]	3.55E-3 (0.36%)	[0.29% 0.44%]	4.22E-3 (0.42%)	[0.35% 0.51%]	5.47E-3 (0.55%)	[0.46% 0.64%]	6.62E-3 (0.66%)	[0.57% 0.77%]	0.003994674
San Gorgonio Pass	0.0053632194	2.74E-3 (0.27%)	[0.22% 0.35%]	3.59E-3 (0.36%)	[0.29% 0.44%]	3.92E-3 (0.39%)	[0.32% 0.48%]	4.66E-3 (0.47%)	[0.39% 0.56%]	5.36E-3 (0.54%)	[0.45% 0.63%]	0.0033288947
San Jacinto (Coyote Creek)	0.0052152686	2.29E-3 (0.23%)	[0.18% 0.30%]	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	[0.24% 0.37%]	3.70E-3 (0.37%)	[0.30% 0.45%]	4.40E-3 (0.44%)	[0.37% 0.53%]	5.22E-3 (0.52%)	[0.44% 0.62%]	0.003180944
San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek)	0.005104305	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	[0.24% 0.37%]	3.70E-3 (0.37%)	[0.30% 0.45%]	3.99E-3 (0.40%)	[0.33% 0.48%]	4.48E-3 (0.45%)	[0.37% 0.54%]	5.03E-3 (0.50%)	[0.42% 0.60%]	0.0034768458
Pinto Mtn	0.004734428	1.74E-3 (0.17%)	[0.13% 0.23%]	2.55E-3 (0.26%)	[0.20% 0.32%]	3.14E-3 (0.31%)	[0.25% 0.39%]	3.99E-3 (0.40%)	[0.33% 0.48%]	4.73E-3 (0.47%)	[0.40% 0.56%]	0.0027001037
San Jacinto (Clark) rev	0.004475514	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.15% 0.26%]	2.55E-3 (0.26%)	[0.20% 0.32%]	2.96E-3 (0.30%)	[0.24% 0.37%]	3.85E-3 (0.38%)	[0.32% 0.47%]	4.48E-3 (0.45%)	[0.37% 0.54%]	0.0025521526
San Jacinto (Borrego)	0.0044015385	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.15% 0.26%]	2.52E-3 (0.25%)	[0.20% 0.32%]	3.11E-3 (0.31%)	[0.25% 0.39%]	3.62E-3 (0.36%)	[0.30% 0.44%]	4.40E-3 (0.44%)	[0.37% 0.53%]	0.0027370914
Sierra Madre	0.0038097352	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.09% 0.18%]	1.66E-3 (0.17%)	[0.12% 0.22%]	2.18E-3 (0.22%)	[0.17% 0.28%]	2.96E-3 (0.30%)	[0.24% 0.37%]	3.77E-3 (0.38%)	[0.31% 0.46%]	0.0021822755

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 46 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.010652463	6.10E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	[0.65% 0.86%]	8.36E-3 (0.84%)	[0.73% 0.95%]	9.62E-3 (0.96%)	[0.85% 1.09%]	0.011 (1.07%)	[0.95% 1.20%]	0.0074345316
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.010578488	6.07E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	7.40E-3 (0.74%)	[0.64% 0.85%]	8.29E-3 (0.83%)	[0.73% 0.95%]	9.54E-3 (0.95%)	[0.84% 1.08%]	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.94% 1.19%]	0.007397544
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.010578488	6.07E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	7.40E-3 (0.74%)	[0.64% 0.85%]	8.29E-3 (0.83%)	[0.73% 0.95%]	9.54E-3 (0.95%)	[0.84% 1.08%]	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.94% 1.19%]	0.007397544
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.009949696	5.66E-3 (0.57%)	[0.48% 0.66%]	6.92E-3 (0.69%)	[0.60% 0.80%]	7.80E-3 (0.78%)	[0.68% 0.89%]	8.99E-3 (0.90%)	[0.79% 1.02%]	9.95E-3 (0.99%)	[0.88% 1.12%]	0.0068797157
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.009949696	5.66E-3 (0.57%)	[0.48% 0.66%]	6.92E-3 (0.69%)	[0.60% 0.80%]	7.80E-3 (0.78%)	[0.68% 0.89%]	8.99E-3 (0.90%)	[0.79% 1.02%]	9.95E-3 (0.99%)	[0.88% 1.12%]	0.0068797157
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.009690783	5.51E-3 (0.55%)	[0.47% 0.65%]	6.73E-3 (0.67%)	[0.58% 0.78%]	7.62E-3 (0.76%)	[0.66% 0.87%]	8.77E-3 (0.88%)	[0.77% 1.00%]	9.69E-3 (0.97%)	[0.86% 1.09%]	0.0066947774
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.00713863	3.99E-3 (0.40%)	[0.33% 0.48%]	4.96E-3 (0.50%)	[0.42% 0.59%]	5.70E-3 (0.57%)	[0.48% 0.67%]	6.36E-3 (0.64%)	[0.55% 0.74%]	7.14E-3 (0.71%)	[0.62% 0.82%]	0.004882379
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.0063249003	3.99E-3 (0.40%)	[0.33% 0.48%]	4.66E-3 (0.47%)	[0.39% 0.56%]	5.10E-3 (0.51%)	[0.43% 0.60%]	5.92E-3 (0.59%)	[0.51% 0.69%]	6.32E-3 (0.63%)	[0.54% 0.74%]	0.0046234652
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.006250925	3.99E-3 (0.40%)	[0.33% 0.48%]	4.66E-3 (0.47%)	[0.39% 0.56%]	5.10E-3 (0.51%)	[0.43% 0.60%]	5.88E-3 (0.59%)	[0.50% 0.69%]	6.25E-3 (0.63%)	[0.54% 0.73%]	0.0045864773
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.0061029736	4.07E-3 (0.41%)	[0.34% 0.49%]	4.70E-3 (0.47%)	[0.39% 0.56%]	5.07E-3 (0.51%)	[0.43% 0.60%]	5.81E-3 (0.58%)	[0.50% 0.68%]	6.10E-3 (0.61%)	[0.52% 0.71%]	0.0045864773
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.0046604527	2.37E-3 (0.24%)	[0.18% 0.30%]	3.07E-3 (0.31%)	[0.25% 0.38%]	3.66E-3 (0.37%)	[0.30% 0.45%]	4.14E-3 (0.41%)	[0.34% 0.50%]	4.66E-3 (0.47%)	[0.39% 0.56%]	0.0032549193
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.0042535877	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	[0.24% 0.37%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.27% 0.41%]	3.62E-3 (0.36%)	[0.30% 0.44%]	4.11E-3 (0.41%)	[0.34% 0.50%]	4.25E-3 (0.43%)	[0.35% 0.51%]	0.0031069685
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.0034768458	1.59E-3 (0.16%)	[0.12% 0.22%]	2.11E-3 (0.21%)	[0.16% 0.28%]	2.55E-3 (0.26%)	[0.20% 0.32%]	2.96E-3 (0.30%)	[0.24% 0.37%]	3.48E-3 (0.35%)	[0.28% 0.43%]	0.0021822755
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.0034768458	1.59E-3 (0.16%)	[0.12% 0.22%]	2.11E-3 (0.21%)	[0.16% 0.28%]	2.55E-3 (0.26%)	[0.20% 0.32%]	2.96E-3 (0.30%)	[0.24% 0.37%]	3.48E-3 (0.35%)	[0.28% 0.43%]	0.0021822755
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.0034768458	1.59E-3 (0.16%)	[0.12% 0.22%]	2.11E-3 (0.21%)	[0.16% 0.28%]	2.55E-3 (0.26%)	[0.20% 0.32%]	2.96E-3 (0.30%)	[0.24% 0.37%]	3.48E-3 (0.35%)	[0.28% 0.43%]	0.0021822755
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.0034768458	1.59E-3 (0.16%)	[0.12% 0.22%]	2.11E-3 (0.21%)	[0.16% 0.28%]	2.55E-3 (0.26%)	[0.20% 0.32%]	2.96E-3 (0.30%)	[0.24% 0.37%]	3.48E-3 (0.35%)	[0.28% 0.43%]	0.0021822755
Imperial	0.0033288947	2.37E-3 (0.24%)	[0.18% 0.30%]	2.55E-3 (0.26%)	[0.20% 0.32%]	2.85E-3 (0.28%)	[0.23% 0.36%]	3.22E-3 (0.32%)	[0.26% 0.40%]	3.33E-3 (0.33%)	[0.27% 0.41%]	0.0024411895
San Jacinto (Coyote Creek)	0.001997337	9.25E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.14%]	1.26E-3 (0.13%)	[0.09% 0.18%]	1.52E-3 (0.15%)	[0.11% 0.21%]	1.70E-3 (0.17%)	[0.13% 0.23%]	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.15% 0.26%]	0.0013685457
San Jacinto (Borrego)	0.0016274597	8.51E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.13%]	1.04E-3 (0.10%)	[0.07% 0.15%]	1.22E-3 (0.12%)	[0.09% 0.17%]	1.33E-3 (0.13%)	[0.09% 0.19%]	1.63E-3 (0.16%)	[0.12% 0.22%]	0.001183607
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM	0.001590472	1.07E-3 (0.11%)	[0.07% 0.16%]	1.18E-3 (0.12%)	[0.08% 0.17%]	1.41E-3 (0.14%)	[0.10% 0.19%]	1.48E-3 (0.15%)	[0.11% 0.20%]	1.59E-3 (0.16%)	[0.12% 0.22%]	0.0012945702
San Jacinto (Clark) rev	0.0012945702	6.29E-4 (0.06%)	[0.04% 0.10%]	7.77E-4 (0.08%)	[0.05% 0.12%]	8.88E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.13%]	1.11E-3 (0.11%)	[0.08% 0.16%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.09% 0.18%]	7.397544E-4
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM	0.0012205947	8.88E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.13%]	9.62E-4 (0.10%)	[0.06% 0.14%]	1.07E-3 (0.11%)	[0.07% 0.16%]	1.15E-3 (0.11%)	[0.08% 0.16%]	1.22E-3 (0.12%)	[0.09% 0.17%]	9.986685E-4
San Jacinto (Superstition Mtn)	0.0012205947	7.03E-4 (0.07%)	[0.04% 0.11%]	7.77E-4 (0.08%)	[0.05% 0.12%]	9.25E-4 (0.09%)	[0.06% 0.14%]	9.99E-4 (0.10%)	[0.07% 0.15%]	1.22E-3 (0.12%)	[0.09% 0.17%]	8.877053E-4
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM	7.767421E-4	4.07E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.08%]	4.81E-4 (0.05%)	[0.03% 0.08%]	5.92E-4 (0.06%)	[0.04% 0.10%]	7.03E-4 (0.07%)	[0.04% 0.11%]	7.77E-4 (0.08%)	[0.05% 0.12%]	5.548158E-4
San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek)	7.027667E-4	4.07E-4 (0.04%)	[0.02% 0.08%]	5.55E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.09%]	5.55E-4 (0.06%)	[0.03% 0.09%]	5.92E-4 (0.06%)	[0.04% 0.10%]	7.03E-4 (0.07%)	[0.04% 0.11%]	5.178281E-4

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week	1 Month	1 Year	10 Year

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 50000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1778624347993,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1778781678302,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "/work2/10177/bhatthal/frontera/ucerf3/u3etas_sim/scenarios/frontera-scenario-fss199642-n128-s50000-t1778624347993",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "fssIndex": 199642
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.29,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-time 1778624347993 --fss-index 199642 --nodes 128 --num-simulations 50000 --hpc-site TACC_FRONTERA --output-dir /work2/10177/bhatthal/frontera/ucerf3/u3etas_sim/scenarios/frontera-scenario-fss199642-n128-s50000-t1778624347993",
  "configTime": 1778781678302
}

FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr Results

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

Magnitude Number Distribution

10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

Hazard Change Over Time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

Trigger Rupture Depth Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

Section Participation

Section Participation Plots

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

Gridded Nucleation

JSON Input File