FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr Results

	FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr
Num Simulations	7000 (incomplete)
Start Time	2026/05/12 22:19:07 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds	1778624347993
Duration	10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?	false
Trigger Ruptures	(none)
Config Generated With	u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-time 1778624347993 --fss-index 199642 --nodes 14 --num-simulations 100000 --hpc-site TACC_STAMPEDE3 --output-dir /work2/10177/bhatthal/stampede3/ucerf3/u3etas_sim/scenarios/stampede3-skx-scenario-fss199642-n14-s100000-t1778624347993

Probabilities Summary Table
Magnitude Number Distribution
Hazard Change Over Time
Trigger Rupture Fault Map
Trigger Rupture Depth Map
Fault Distances To Triggers
Individual Simulated Catalog Maps
Section Participation
Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions
Gridded Nucleation
JSON Input File

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude	1 Hour Prob	1 Day Prob	1 Week Prob	1 Month Prob	1 Year Prob	10 Year Prob
M≥4	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]
M≥4.5	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]
M≥5	1.000 (99.97%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[99.88% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]
M≥5.5	0.891 (89.06%)	0.997 (99.70%)	1.000 (99.97%)	1.000 (99.97%)	1.000 (100.00%)	1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf	[88.30% 89.77%]	[99.53% 99.81%]	[99.88% 100.00%]	[99.88% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]	[99.93% 100.00%]
M≥6	0.411 (41.14%)	0.738 (73.83%)	0.849 (84.90%)	0.904 (90.36%)	0.953 (95.27%)	0.974 (97.39%)
95% Conf	[39.99% 42.31%]	[72.78% 74.85%]	[84.03% 85.73%]	[89.64% 91.03%]	[94.74% 95.75%]	[96.98% 97.74%]
M≥6.5	0.177 (17.71%)	0.382 (38.16%)	0.482 (48.16%)	0.549 (54.91%)	0.636 (63.57%)	0.707 (70.74%)
95% Conf	[16.83% 18.63%]	[37.02% 39.31%]	[46.98% 49.34%]	[53.74% 56.08%]	[62.43% 64.70%]	[69.66% 71.80%]
M≥7	0.037 (3.67%)	0.083 (8.27%)	0.105 (10.50%)	0.123 (12.30%)	0.150 (15.00%)	0.176 (17.60%)
95% Conf	[3.25% 4.15%]	[7.64% 8.95%]	[9.80% 11.25%]	[11.54% 13.10%]	[14.18% 15.86%]	[16.72% 18.52%]
M≥7.5	0.013 (1.29%)	0.030 (3.00%)	0.036 (3.64%)	0.043 (4.26%)	0.052 (5.17%)	0.058 (5.83%)
95% Conf	[1.04% 1.59%]	[2.62% 3.43%]	[3.22% 4.12%]	[3.80% 4.76%]	[4.67% 5.72%]	[5.30% 6.41%]
M≥7.8	5.12E-3 (0.51%)	0.012 (1.19%)	0.014 (1.41%)	0.016 (1.58%)	0.018 (1.85%)	0.021 (2.12%)
95% Conf	[0.36% 0.72%]	[0.96% 1.48%]	[1.15% 1.72%]	[1.31% 1.91%]	[1.55% 2.20%]	[1.80% 2.49%]
M≥8	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	3.71E-3 (0.37%)	5.00E-3 (0.50%)	5.43E-3 (0.54%)	6.00E-3 (0.60%)
95% Conf	[0.04% 0.22%]	[0.19% 0.47%]	[0.25% 0.55%]	[0.35% 0.70%]	[0.39% 0.75%]	[0.44% 0.82%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 7000 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 7000 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 7000 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 7000 catalogs
10 yr Probability (thin red line): 10 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
10 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 7000 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	10 yr Probability	10 yr Prob 95% Conf	10 yr Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	22805.035	17975.000	41925.000	21221.000	21162.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	10527.632
M≥2.6	18160.604	14302.000	33372.000	16901.000	15907.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	8382.525
M≥2.7	14453.379	11371.000	26547.000	13452.000	13285.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	6670.465
M≥2.8	11498.916	9034.000	21155.000	10699.000	10627.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	5306.395
M≥2.9	9145.457	7182.000	16821.000	8507.000	8240.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	4220.189
M≥3	7271.045	5707.000	13364.000	6763.000	6896.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	3355.639
M≥3.1	5779.469	4529.000	10622.000	5376.000	5253.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	2667.350
M≥3.2	4593.228	3600.000	8437.000	4275.000	4177.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	2119.589
M≥3.3	3649.628	2854.000	6743.000	3397.000	3334.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	1684.483
M≥3.4	2899.719	2266.000	5369.000	2699.000	2667.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	1338.325
M≥3.5	2303.256	1793.000	4271.000	2144.000	2159.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	1063.159
M≥3.6	1829.296	1418.000	3386.000	1702.000	1652.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	844.273
M≥3.7	1453.279	1123.000	2700.000	1355.000	1329.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	670.942
M≥3.8	1153.940	887.000	2141.000	1076.000	1024.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	532.764
M≥3.9	915.948	700.000	1697.000	854.000	858.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	422.873
M≥4	726.964	550.000	1341.000	678.000	654.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	335.443
M≥4.1	576.836	433.000	1061.000	538.000	513.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	266.306
M≥4.2	457.530	340.000	844.000	427.000	414.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	211.268
M≥4.3	362.750	266.000	667.000	339.000	322.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	167.538
M≥4.4	287.466	207.000	529.000	269.000	268.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	132.853
M≥4.5	227.723	163.000	419.000	213.000	198.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	105.366
M≥4.6	180.117	126.000	332.000	169.000	165.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	83.315
M≥4.7	142.339	97.000	261.000	133.000	137.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	65.903
M≥4.8	112.444	75.000	206.000	106.000	103.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	52.131
M≥4.9	88.605	57.000	165.000	83.000	82.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	41.096
M≥5	69.637	43.000	129.000	65.000	63.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	32.347
M≥5.1	54.606	33.000	102.000	51.000	46.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	25.364
M≥5.2	42.694	24.000	82.000	40.000	35.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	19.863
M≥5.3	33.260	18.000	64.000	31.000	27.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	15.502
M≥5.4	25.742	13.000	51.000	24.000	23.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	12.039
M≥5.5	19.767	9.000	40.000	18.000	16.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	9.266
M≥5.6	15.016	6.000	31.000	14.000	13.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	7.057
M≥5.7	11.263	4.000	24.000	10.000	9.000	1.000 (99.97%)	[99.88% 100.00%]	0.801 (80.07%)	5.327
M≥5.8	8.280	2.000	19.000	8.000	7.000	1.000 (99.96%)	[99.86% 99.99%]	0.801 (80.07%)	3.958
M≥5.9	5.909	1.000	14.000	5.000	5.000	0.994 (99.37%)	[99.15% 99.54%]	0.801 (80.07%)	2.865
M≥6	4.214	0.000	11.000	4.000	3.000	0.974 (97.39%)	[96.98% 97.74%]	0.801 (80.07%)	2.084
M≥6.1	3.010	0.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	0.933 (93.29%)	[92.67% 93.86%]	0.801 (80.07%)	1.519
M≥6.2	2.282	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.884 (88.44%)	[87.67% 89.18%]	0.799 (79.94%)	1.206
M≥6.3	1.753	0.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.825 (82.53%)	[81.61% 83.41%]	0.776 (77.61%)	0.977
M≥6.4	1.411	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.775 (77.47%)	[76.47% 78.44%]	0.742 (74.24%)	0.799
M≥6.5	1.131	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.707 (70.74%)	[69.66% 71.80%]	0.685 (68.51%)	0.660
M≥6.6	0.787	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.582 (58.21%)	[57.05% 59.37%]	0.569 (56.86%)	0.468
M≥6.7	0.637	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.499 (49.86%)	[48.68% 51.04%]	0.487 (48.74%)	0.385
M≥6.8	0.571	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.465 (46.46%)	[45.28% 47.63%]	0.457 (45.73%)	0.351
M≥6.9	0.250	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.209 (20.93%)	[19.98% 21.90%]	0.201 (20.14%)	0.144
M≥7	0.203	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.176 (17.60%)	[16.72% 18.52%]	0.170 (17.01%)	0.119
M≥7.1	0.176	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.155 (15.54%)	[14.71% 16.42%]	0.152 (15.24%)	0.106
M≥7.2	0.117	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.105 (10.46%)	[9.75% 11.20%]	0.103 (10.26%)	0.072
M≥7.3	0.096	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.087 (8.74%)	[8.10% 9.43%]	0.086 (8.63%)	0.061
M≥7.4	0.073	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.068 (6.81%)	[6.24% 7.44%]	0.068 (6.77%)	0.047
M≥7.5	0.061	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.058 (5.83%)	[5.30% 6.41%]	0.058 (5.83%)	0.039
M≥7.6	0.043	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.041 (4.14%)	[3.69% 4.64%]	0.041 (4.14%)	0.027
M≥7.7	0.026	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.026 (2.59%)	[2.23% 2.99%]	0.026 (2.59%)	0.017
M≥7.8	0.021	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.021 (2.13%)	[1.81% 2.50%]	0.021 (2.13%)	0.014
M≥7.9	0.015	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.015 (1.53%)	[1.26% 1.85%]	0.015 (1.53%)	9.43E-3
M≥8	6.00E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.00E-3 (0.60%)	[0.44% 0.82%]	6.00E-3 (0.60%)	4.29E-3
M≥8.1	1.57E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.57E-3 (0.16%)	[0.08% 0.29%]	1.57E-3 (0.16%)	1.43E-3
M≥8.2	2.86E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	[0.00% 0.12%]	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	2.86E-4
M≥8.3	1.43E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.09%]	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	1.43E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 7000 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 7000 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 7000 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 7000 catalogs
1 yr Probability (thin red line): 1 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 7000 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 yr Probability	1 yr Prob 95% Conf	1 yr Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	17936.986	14513.000	31345.000	16789.000	16647.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	9320.968
M≥2.6	14283.714	11550.000	24865.000	13374.000	13355.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	7421.540
M≥2.7	11367.801	9189.000	19838.000	10638.000	10617.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	5905.866
M≥2.8	9043.986	7304.000	15811.000	8468.000	8441.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	4698.238
M≥2.9	7193.119	5804.000	12572.000	6736.000	6618.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	3736.426
M≥3	5718.804	4605.000	9979.000	5358.000	5076.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	2971.024
M≥3.1	4545.225	3658.000	7930.000	4258.000	4098.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	2361.558
M≥3.2	3612.371	2900.000	6299.000	3388.000	3260.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	1876.659
M≥3.3	2870.238	2300.000	4990.000	2692.000	2696.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	1491.406
M≥3.4	2280.599	1821.000	3969.000	2141.000	2210.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	1184.997
M≥3.5	1811.429	1440.000	3171.000	1698.000	1612.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	941.294
M≥3.6	1438.618	1136.000	2530.000	1349.000	1287.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	747.558
M≥3.7	1142.966	898.000	2000.000	1073.000	1012.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	594.051
M≥3.8	907.467	711.000	1583.000	851.000	826.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	471.700
M≥3.9	720.259	560.000	1265.000	676.000	667.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	374.391
M≥4	571.636	441.000	1015.000	537.000	526.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	296.961
M≥4.1	453.560	347.000	797.000	426.000	407.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	235.751
M≥4.2	359.797	271.000	633.000	339.000	310.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	187.055
M≥4.3	285.220	212.000	506.000	268.000	258.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	148.337
M≥4.4	226.111	165.000	401.000	213.000	198.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	117.649
M≥4.5	179.132	129.000	321.000	169.000	163.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	93.284
M≥4.6	141.711	100.000	255.000	134.000	130.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	73.797
M≥4.7	112.045	77.000	202.000	106.000	106.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	58.389
M≥4.8	88.526	58.000	161.000	84.000	77.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	46.190
M≥4.9	69.747	45.000	127.000	66.000	64.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	36.425
M≥5	54.840	34.000	101.000	52.000	51.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	28.678
M≥5.1	43.021	25.000	80.000	41.000	38.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	22.493
M≥5.2	33.671	19.000	64.000	32.000	32.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	17.627
M≥5.3	26.216	13.000	50.000	25.000	23.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	13.752
M≥5.4	20.285	9.000	40.000	19.000	19.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	10.686
M≥5.5	15.585	6.000	31.000	15.000	13.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	8.234
M≥5.6	11.857	4.000	25.000	11.000	11.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.740 (73.99%)	6.272
M≥5.7	8.907	3.000	20.000	8.000	7.000	1.000 (99.96%)	[99.86% 99.99%]	0.740 (73.99%)	4.744
M≥5.8	6.565	2.000	15.000	6.000	5.000	0.997 (99.66%)	[99.48% 99.78%]	0.740 (73.99%)	3.534
M≥5.9	4.704	1.000	12.000	4.000	4.000	0.984 (98.43%)	[98.10% 98.70%]	0.740 (73.99%)	2.567
M≥6	3.372	0.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	0.953 (95.27%)	[94.74% 95.75%]	0.740 (73.99%)	1.878
M≥6.1	2.431	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.892 (89.16%)	[88.40% 89.87%]	0.740 (73.97%)	1.374
M≥6.2	1.864	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.830 (83.04%)	[82.14% 83.91%]	0.738 (73.79%)	1.097
M≥6.3	1.453	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.762 (76.16%)	[75.14% 77.15%]	0.712 (71.21%)	0.894
M≥6.4	1.172	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.705 (70.54%)	[69.46% 71.61%]	0.675 (67.54%)	0.732
M≥6.5	0.944	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.636 (63.57%)	[62.43% 64.70%]	0.616 (61.63%)	0.603
M≥6.6	0.661	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.513 (51.30%)	[50.12% 52.48%]	0.502 (50.20%)	0.431
M≥6.7	0.537	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.438 (43.79%)	[42.62% 44.96%]	0.429 (42.93%)	0.355
M≥6.8	0.485	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.407 (40.74%)	[39.59% 41.91%]	0.402 (40.19%)	0.325
M≥6.9	0.209	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.178 (17.77%)	[16.89% 18.69%]	0.172 (17.24%)	0.133
M≥7	0.170	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.150 (15.00%)	[14.18% 15.86%]	0.146 (14.63%)	0.110
M≥7.1	0.150	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.133 (13.31%)	[12.53% 14.14%]	0.131 (13.14%)	0.098
M≥7.2	0.100	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.090 (8.99%)	[8.33% 9.69%]	0.088 (8.84%)	0.067
M≥7.3	0.083	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.075 (7.54%)	[6.94% 8.19%]	0.075 (7.46%)	0.057
M≥7.4	0.063	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.060 (5.99%)	[5.45% 6.57%]	0.059 (5.94%)	0.044
M≥7.5	0.053	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.052 (5.17%)	[4.67% 5.72%]	0.052 (5.17%)	0.037
M≥7.6	0.038	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.037 (3.70%)	[3.28% 4.18%]	0.037 (3.70%)	0.026
M≥7.7	0.023	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.023 (2.30%)	[1.97% 2.69%]	0.023 (2.30%)	0.017
M≥7.8	0.019	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.019 (1.86%)	[1.56% 2.21%]	0.019 (1.86%)	0.013
M≥7.9	0.013	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.013 (1.33%)	[1.08% 1.63%]	0.013 (1.33%)	9.00E-3
M≥8	5.43E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.43E-3 (0.54%)	[0.39% 0.75%]	5.43E-3 (0.54%)	4.14E-3
M≥8.1	1.57E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.57E-3 (0.16%)	[0.08% 0.29%]	1.57E-3 (0.16%)	1.43E-3
M≥8.2	2.86E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	[0.00% 0.12%]	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	2.86E-4
M≥8.3	1.43E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.09%]	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	1.43E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 7000 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 7000 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 7000 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 7000 catalogs
1 mo Probability (thin red line): 1 month probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 mo Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 7000 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 mo Probability	1 mo Prob 95% Conf	1 mo Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	13049.049	10911.000	21666.000	12289.000	11709.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	7771.425
M≥2.6	10390.953	8680.000	17269.000	9783.000	9577.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	6187.449
M≥2.7	8269.419	6896.000	13759.000	7786.000	7607.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	4923.789
M≥2.8	6579.120	5480.000	10952.000	6199.000	6211.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	3916.866
M≥2.9	5232.694	4350.000	8714.000	4929.000	5063.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	3115.192
M≥3	4160.439	3456.000	6915.000	3921.000	3956.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	2477.146
M≥3.1	3306.596	2738.000	5469.000	3116.000	2957.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	1969.045
M≥3.2	2627.953	2169.000	4356.000	2478.000	2415.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	1564.727
M≥3.3	2087.957	1718.000	3457.000	1967.000	1872.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	1243.477
M≥3.4	1658.965	1358.000	2739.000	1564.000	1528.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	987.870
M≥3.5	1317.727	1074.000	2176.000	1243.000	1211.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	784.683
M≥3.6	1046.514	847.000	1726.000	989.000	964.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	623.194
M≥3.7	831.456	669.000	1373.000	786.000	773.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	495.216
M≥3.8	660.121	526.000	1096.000	624.000	612.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	393.220
M≥3.9	523.906	414.000	871.000	495.000	494.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	312.099
M≥4	415.812	326.000	696.000	393.000	387.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	247.579
M≥4.1	329.951	256.000	554.000	312.000	301.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	196.542
M≥4.2	261.754	199.000	438.000	248.000	250.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	155.930
M≥4.3	207.492	155.000	351.000	197.000	191.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	123.671
M≥4.4	164.495	120.000	277.000	156.000	149.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	98.110
M≥4.5	130.312	94.000	220.000	124.000	121.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	77.777
M≥4.6	103.059	72.000	175.000	98.000	95.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	61.513
M≥4.7	81.494	55.000	139.000	77.000	72.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	48.647
M≥4.8	64.423	42.000	111.000	61.000	57.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	38.503
M≥4.9	50.782	32.000	89.000	48.000	45.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	30.379
M≥5	39.957	24.000	70.000	38.000	36.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	23.946
M≥5.1	31.324	18.000	56.000	30.000	26.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	18.765
M≥5.2	24.538	13.000	45.000	23.000	22.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	14.715
M≥5.3	19.124	9.000	36.000	18.000	18.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	11.487
M≥5.4	14.802	6.000	29.000	14.000	12.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	8.919
M≥5.5	11.373	4.000	23.000	11.000	9.000	1.000 (99.97%)	[99.88% 100.00%]	0.651 (65.10%)	6.880
M≥5.6	8.685	3.000	18.000	8.000	8.000	0.999 (99.89%)	[99.77% 99.95%]	0.651 (65.10%)	5.257
M≥5.7	6.547	2.000	15.000	6.000	6.000	0.996 (99.61%)	[99.43% 99.74%]	0.651 (65.10%)	3.978
M≥5.8	4.851	1.000	12.000	4.000	4.000	0.986 (98.57%)	[98.26% 98.83%]	0.651 (65.10%)	2.976
M≥5.9	3.491	0.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	0.959 (95.87%)	[95.37% 96.32%]	0.651 (65.10%)	2.167
M≥6	2.525	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.904 (90.36%)	[89.64% 91.03%]	0.651 (65.10%)	1.595
M≥6.1	1.841	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.819 (81.91%)	[80.99% 82.81%]	0.651 (65.10%)	1.176
M≥6.2	1.440	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.744 (74.39%)	[73.34% 75.40%]	0.649 (64.86%)	0.948
M≥6.3	1.143	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.670 (67.00%)	[65.88% 68.10%]	0.622 (62.23%)	0.781
M≥6.4	0.925	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.614 (61.40%)	[60.25% 62.54%]	0.586 (58.59%)	0.637
M≥6.5	0.750	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.549 (54.91%)	[53.74% 56.08%]	0.532 (53.20%)	0.525
M≥6.6	0.532	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.432 (43.21%)	[42.05% 44.39%]	0.424 (42.41%)	0.377
M≥6.7	0.436	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.368 (36.77%)	[35.64% 37.92%]	0.362 (36.17%)	0.311
M≥6.8	0.396	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.341 (34.11%)	[33.01% 35.24%]	0.337 (33.70%)	0.286
M≥6.9	0.170	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.146 (14.56%)	[13.74% 15.41%]	0.142 (14.20%)	0.119
M≥7	0.140	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.123 (12.30%)	[11.54% 13.10%]	0.120 (12.04%)	0.099
M≥7.1	0.122	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.109 (10.90%)	[10.18% 11.66%]	0.108 (10.81%)	0.088
M≥7.2	0.081	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.073 (7.31%)	[6.72% 7.96%]	0.072 (7.24%)	0.060
M≥7.3	0.068	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.062 (6.17%)	[5.62% 6.77%]	0.062 (6.16%)	0.051
M≥7.4	0.052	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.049 (4.94%)	[4.45% 5.48%]	0.049 (4.93%)	0.040
M≥7.5	0.044	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.043 (4.26%)	[3.80% 4.76%]	0.043 (4.26%)	0.034
M≥7.6	0.031	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.030 (3.04%)	[2.66% 3.48%]	0.030 (3.04%)	0.023
M≥7.7	0.020	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.020 (1.96%)	[1.65% 2.32%]	0.020 (1.96%)	0.016
M≥7.8	0.016	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.016 (1.59%)	[1.31% 1.91%]	0.016 (1.59%)	0.012
M≥7.9	0.011	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.011 (1.10%)	[0.87% 1.38%]	0.011 (1.10%)	8.29E-3
M≥8	5.00E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.00E-3 (0.50%)	[0.35% 0.70%]	5.00E-3 (0.50%)	3.86E-3
M≥8.1	1.57E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.57E-3 (0.16%)	[0.08% 0.29%]	1.57E-3 (0.16%)	1.43E-3
M≥8.2	2.86E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	[0.00% 0.12%]	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	2.86E-4
M≥8.3	1.43E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.09%]	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	1.43E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 7000 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 7000 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 7000 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 7000 catalogs
1 wk Probability (thin red line): 1 week probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 wk Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 7000 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 wk Probability	1 wk Prob 95% Conf	1 wk Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	10384.027	8865.000	16816.000	9829.000	9286.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	6737.048
M≥2.6	8268.876	7050.000	13411.000	7828.000	7787.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	5363.786
M≥2.7	6580.652	5599.000	10659.000	6231.000	5929.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	4268.537
M≥2.8	5235.689	4445.000	8464.000	4959.000	4836.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	3395.687
M≥2.9	4164.277	3530.000	6728.000	3945.000	3777.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	2700.775
M≥3	3311.179	2801.000	5352.000	3139.000	3098.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	2147.710
M≥3.1	2631.499	2219.000	4253.000	2495.000	2344.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1707.047
M≥3.2	2091.360	1757.000	3391.000	1983.000	1861.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1356.516
M≥3.3	1661.562	1393.000	2693.000	1576.000	1555.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1077.947
M≥3.4	1320.072	1100.000	2133.000	1253.000	1233.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	856.383
M≥3.5	1048.561	867.000	1702.000	996.000	969.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	680.256
M≥3.6	832.826	685.000	1349.000	791.000	760.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	540.335
M≥3.7	661.783	540.000	1067.000	629.000	631.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	429.400
M≥3.8	525.447	425.000	847.000	500.000	481.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	340.948
M≥3.9	417.068	334.000	675.000	397.000	398.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	270.644
M≥4	330.998	261.000	538.000	315.000	311.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	214.684
M≥4.1	262.699	204.000	428.000	250.000	249.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	170.441
M≥4.2	208.432	159.000	340.000	199.000	199.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	135.242
M≥4.3	165.176	124.000	269.000	158.000	161.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	107.248
M≥4.4	130.979	96.000	216.000	125.000	119.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	85.092
M≥4.5	103.781	74.000	172.000	99.000	100.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	67.439
M≥4.6	82.092	57.000	137.000	79.000	79.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	53.343
M≥4.7	64.941	44.000	109.000	62.000	59.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	42.187
M≥4.8	51.340	33.000	86.000	49.000	46.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	33.393
M≥4.9	40.468	25.000	69.000	39.000	34.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	26.347
M≥5	31.839	19.000	56.000	30.000	28.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	20.769
M≥5.1	24.948	13.000	45.000	24.000	24.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	16.281
M≥5.2	19.561	10.000	36.000	19.000	18.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	12.764
M≥5.3	15.248	7.000	29.000	14.000	14.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	9.961
M≥5.4	11.815	5.000	23.000	11.000	10.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	7.741
M≥5.5	9.079	3.000	19.000	9.000	9.000	1.000 (99.97%)	[99.88% 100.00%]	0.579 (57.89%)	5.974
M≥5.6	6.937	2.000	15.000	6.000	5.000	0.998 (99.77%)	[99.62% 99.86%]	0.579 (57.89%)	4.567
M≥5.7	5.237	1.000	12.000	5.000	4.000	0.990 (99.03%)	[98.76% 99.24%]	0.579 (57.89%)	3.460
M≥5.8	3.888	0.000	10.000	4.000	3.000	0.969 (96.89%)	[96.44% 97.27%]	0.579 (57.89%)	2.592
M≥5.9	2.814	0.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	0.926 (92.60%)	[91.96% 93.20%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1.897
M≥6	2.049	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.849 (84.90%)	[84.03% 85.73%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1.403
M≥6.1	1.500	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.750 (74.99%)	[73.95% 75.99%]	0.579 (57.89%)	1.039
M≥6.2	1.183	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.675 (67.46%)	[66.34% 68.55%]	0.577 (57.73%)	0.841
M≥6.3	0.953	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.599 (59.91%)	[58.75% 61.06%]	0.552 (55.17%)	0.697
M≥6.4	0.771	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.543 (54.31%)	[53.14% 55.49%]	0.515 (51.54%)	0.567
M≥6.5	0.625	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.482 (48.16%)	[46.98% 49.34%]	0.465 (46.49%)	0.465
M≥6.6	0.448	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.375 (37.49%)	[36.35% 38.63%]	0.368 (36.76%)	0.336
M≥6.7	0.368	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.318 (31.76%)	[30.67% 32.86%]	0.312 (31.21%)	0.278
M≥6.8	0.336	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.295 (29.49%)	[28.42% 30.57%]	0.291 (29.13%)	0.255
M≥6.9	0.145	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.126 (12.57%)	[11.81% 13.38%]	0.123 (12.27%)	0.107
M≥7	0.119	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.105 (10.50%)	[9.80% 11.25%]	0.103 (10.30%)	0.089
M≥7.1	0.105	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.093 (9.34%)	[8.68% 10.05%]	0.093 (9.27%)	0.080
M≥7.2	0.070	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.064 (6.36%)	[5.80% 6.96%]	0.063 (6.31%)	0.055
M≥7.3	0.059	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.054 (5.40%)	[4.89% 5.96%]	0.054 (5.39%)	0.046
M≥7.4	0.045	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.043 (4.29%)	[3.83% 4.79%]	0.043 (4.27%)	0.036
M≥7.5	0.037	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.036 (3.64%)	[3.22% 4.12%]	0.036 (3.64%)	0.030
M≥7.6	0.027	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.026 (2.64%)	[2.29% 3.05%]	0.026 (2.64%)	0.021
M≥7.7	0.018	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.018 (1.77%)	[1.48% 2.12%]	0.018 (1.77%)	0.014
M≥7.8	0.014	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.014 (1.41%)	[1.16% 1.73%]	0.014 (1.41%)	0.011
M≥7.9	9.43E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	9.43E-3 (0.94%)	[0.74% 1.21%]	9.43E-3 (0.94%)	7.29E-3
M≥8	3.71E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.71E-3 (0.37%)	[0.25% 0.55%]	3.71E-3 (0.37%)	3.14E-3
M≥8.1	1.14E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.14E-3 (0.11%)	[0.05% 0.23%]	1.14E-3 (0.11%)	1.00E-3
M≥8.2	2.86E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	[0.00% 0.12%]	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	2.86E-4
M≥8.3	1.43E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.09%]	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	1.43E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 7000 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 7000 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 7000 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 7000 catalogs
1 d Probability (thin red line): 1 day probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 d Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 7000 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 d Probability	1 d Prob 95% Conf	1 d Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	7092.894	6247.000	10716.000	6756.000	6704.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	5182.747
M≥2.6	5647.707	4966.000	8532.000	5384.000	5325.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	4126.192
M≥2.7	4494.717	3939.000	6813.000	4286.000	4199.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	3283.735
M≥2.8	3575.989	3127.000	5437.000	3410.000	3343.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	2612.423
M≥2.9	2844.046	2478.000	4315.000	2714.000	2624.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	2077.752
M≥3	2261.255	1966.000	3424.000	2158.000	2112.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	1652.163
M≥3.1	1797.073	1555.000	2724.000	1716.000	1665.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	1313.103
M≥3.2	1428.213	1230.000	2168.000	1366.000	1346.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	1043.526
M≥3.3	1134.593	970.000	1723.000	1085.000	1069.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	829.128
M≥3.4	901.277	766.000	1372.000	862.000	852.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	658.673
M≥3.5	715.869	604.000	1086.000	686.000	662.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	523.168
M≥3.6	568.640	475.000	866.000	545.000	525.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	415.611
M≥3.7	451.730	374.000	687.000	434.000	422.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	330.199
M≥3.8	358.683	294.000	546.000	345.000	345.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	262.244
M≥3.9	284.654	229.000	433.000	274.000	274.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	208.102
M≥4	225.915	179.000	345.000	217.000	214.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	165.112
M≥4.1	179.332	139.000	275.000	173.000	165.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	131.090
M≥4.2	142.358	108.000	218.000	137.000	129.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	104.049
M≥4.3	112.804	84.000	173.000	109.000	110.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	82.520
M≥4.4	89.467	65.000	138.000	86.000	85.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	65.491
M≥4.5	70.912	49.000	110.000	68.000	68.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	51.918
M≥4.6	56.121	38.000	89.000	54.000	50.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	41.121
M≥4.7	44.383	29.000	71.000	43.000	43.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	32.518
M≥4.8	35.110	21.000	57.000	34.000	33.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	25.733
M≥4.9	27.665	16.000	46.000	27.000	26.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	20.296
M≥5	21.764	12.000	37.000	21.000	20.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	15.996
M≥5.1	17.074	9.000	30.000	16.000	15.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	12.558
M≥5.2	13.390	6.000	24.000	13.000	12.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	9.849
M≥5.3	10.446	4.000	20.000	10.000	9.000	1.000 (99.97%)	[99.88% 100.00%]	0.469 (46.90%)	7.693
M≥5.4	8.120	3.000	16.000	8.000	7.000	0.999 (99.91%)	[99.80% 99.97%]	0.469 (46.90%)	6.001
M≥5.5	6.254	2.000	13.000	6.000	6.000	0.997 (99.70%)	[99.53% 99.81%]	0.469 (46.90%)	4.646
M≥5.6	4.791	1.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	0.988 (98.81%)	[98.52% 99.05%]	0.469 (46.90%)	3.564
M≥5.7	3.627	0.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	0.965 (96.50%)	[96.04% 96.91%]	0.469 (46.90%)	2.709
M≥5.8	2.708	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.916 (91.59%)	[90.90% 92.22%]	0.469 (46.90%)	2.042
M≥5.9	1.970	0.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.842 (84.19%)	[83.30% 85.03%]	0.469 (46.90%)	1.501
M≥6	1.453	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.738 (73.83%)	[72.78% 74.85%]	0.469 (46.90%)	1.121
M≥6.1	1.083	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.630 (62.99%)	[61.84% 64.12%]	0.469 (46.90%)	0.842
M≥6.2	0.871	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.558 (55.81%)	[54.64% 56.98%]	0.468 (46.76%)	0.690
M≥6.3	0.714	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.486 (48.64%)	[47.47% 49.82%]	0.445 (44.54%)	0.576
M≥6.4	0.581	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.437 (43.69%)	[42.52% 44.86%]	0.413 (41.30%)	0.470
M≥6.5	0.469	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.382 (38.16%)	[37.02% 39.31%]	0.368 (36.79%)	0.383
M≥6.6	0.342	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.293 (29.26%)	[28.20% 30.34%]	0.287 (28.74%)	0.280
M≥6.7	0.281	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.247 (24.69%)	[23.68% 25.72%]	0.244 (24.36%)	0.231
M≥6.8	0.258	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.229 (22.90%)	[21.92% 23.91%]	0.227 (22.67%)	0.213
M≥6.9	0.113	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.099 (9.93%)	[9.24% 10.66%]	0.097 (9.71%)	0.092
M≥7	0.092	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.083 (8.27%)	[7.64% 8.95%]	0.081 (8.13%)	0.076
M≥7.1	0.081	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.073 (7.33%)	[6.73% 7.97%]	0.073 (7.29%)	0.068
M≥7.2	0.056	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.052 (5.17%)	[4.67% 5.72%]	0.051 (5.14%)	0.048
M≥7.3	0.047	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.044 (4.41%)	[3.95% 4.93%]	0.044 (4.41%)	0.040
M≥7.4	0.037	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.036 (3.57%)	[3.15% 4.04%]	0.036 (3.57%)	0.031
M≥7.5	0.031	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.030 (3.00%)	[2.62% 3.43%]	0.030 (3.00%)	0.026
M≥7.6	0.022	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.021 (2.14%)	[1.82% 2.52%]	0.021 (2.14%)	0.018
M≥7.7	0.015	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.21% 1.79%]	0.015 (1.47%)	0.012
M≥7.8	0.012	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.012 (1.20%)	[0.96% 1.49%]	0.012 (1.20%)	9.86E-3
M≥7.9	8.00E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	8.00E-3 (0.80%)	[0.61% 1.05%]	8.00E-3 (0.80%)	6.43E-3
M≥8	3.00E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	[0.19% 0.47%]	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	2.86E-3
M≥8.1	1.00E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	8.57E-4
M≥8.2	2.86E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	[0.00% 0.12%]	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	2.86E-4
M≥8.3	1.43E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	[0.00% 0.09%]	1.43E-4 (0.01%)	1.43E-4
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 7000 catalogs
2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 7000 catalogs
Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 7000 catalogs
Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 7000 catalogs
1 hr Probability (thin red line): 1 hour probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
1 hr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 7000 catalogs

Mag	Mean	2.5 %ile	97.5 %ile	Median	Mode	1 hr Probability	1 hr Prob 95% Conf	1 hr Supra-Seis Prob	Primary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5	2539.921	2355.000	2985.000	2489.000	2442.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	2279.992
M≥2.6	2021.957	1866.000	2370.000	1982.000	1967.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	1814.906
M≥2.7	1609.166	1476.000	1891.000	1578.000	1567.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	1444.301
M≥2.8	1280.414	1169.000	1515.000	1256.000	1254.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	1149.265
M≥2.9	1018.282	925.000	1199.000	1000.000	995.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	913.989
M≥3	809.689	729.000	953.000	795.000	792.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	726.726
M≥3.1	643.367	574.000	762.000	632.000	617.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	577.498
M≥3.2	511.173	450.000	607.000	503.000	489.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	458.819
M≥3.3	406.095	355.000	483.000	400.000	401.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	364.517
M≥3.4	322.659	278.000	385.000	318.000	318.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	289.643
M≥3.5	256.297	217.000	309.000	253.000	251.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	230.063
M≥3.6	203.679	170.000	247.000	201.000	201.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	182.844
M≥3.7	161.850	133.000	199.000	160.000	155.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	145.290
M≥3.8	128.472	103.000	161.000	127.000	125.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	115.331
M≥3.9	101.915	80.000	130.000	101.000	98.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	91.474
M≥4	80.860	61.000	106.000	80.000	76.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	72.571
M≥4.1	64.217	47.000	85.000	63.000	65.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	57.651
M≥4.2	50.931	36.000	69.000	50.000	48.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	45.734
M≥4.3	40.390	28.000	56.000	40.000	39.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	36.268
M≥4.4	32.094	21.000	46.000	32.000	32.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	28.824
M≥4.5	25.423	15.000	38.000	25.000	24.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	22.826
M≥4.6	20.122	11.000	31.000	20.000	19.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	18.078
M≥4.7	15.920	8.000	25.000	16.000	16.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	14.308
M≥4.8	12.631	6.000	21.000	12.000	12.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	11.353
M≥4.9	9.970	4.000	17.000	10.000	10.000	1.000 (100.00%)	[99.93% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	8.965
M≥5	7.873	3.000	14.000	8.000	8.000	1.000 (99.97%)	[99.88% 100.00%]	0.233 (23.27%)	7.086
M≥5.1	6.187	2.000	12.000	6.000	6.000	0.998 (99.83%)	[99.69% 99.91%]	0.233 (23.27%)	5.564
M≥5.2	4.854	1.000	10.000	5.000	4.000	0.991 (99.07%)	[98.81% 99.28%]	0.233 (23.27%)	4.365
M≥5.3	3.784	0.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	0.975 (97.49%)	[97.08% 97.83%]	0.233 (23.27%)	3.406
M≥5.4	2.948	0.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	0.943 (94.30%)	[93.72% 94.83%]	0.233 (23.27%)	2.662
M≥5.5	2.288	0.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	0.891 (89.06%)	[88.30% 89.77%]	0.233 (23.27%)	2.071
M≥5.6	1.763	0.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	0.813 (81.29%)	[80.35% 82.19%]	0.233 (23.27%)	1.597
M≥5.7	1.342	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.719 (71.87%)	[70.80% 72.92%]	0.233 (23.27%)	1.218
M≥5.8	1.017	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.622 (62.19%)	[61.04% 63.32%]	0.233 (23.27%)	0.925
M≥5.9	0.752	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.510 (50.97%)	[49.79% 52.15%]	0.233 (23.27%)	0.685
M≥6	0.566	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.411 (41.14%)	[39.99% 42.31%]	0.233 (23.27%)	0.519
M≥6.1	0.432	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.331 (33.10%)	[32.00% 34.22%]	0.233 (23.27%)	0.399
M≥6.2	0.355	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.281 (28.10%)	[27.05% 29.17%]	0.232 (23.16%)	0.329
M≥6.3	0.299	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.242 (24.16%)	[23.16% 25.18%]	0.222 (22.20%)	0.280
M≥6.4	0.240	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.209 (20.89%)	[19.94% 21.86%]	0.200 (19.96%)	0.224
M≥6.5	0.193	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.177 (17.71%)	[16.83% 18.63%]	0.172 (17.21%)	0.180
M≥6.6	0.143	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.135 (13.47%)	[12.68% 14.30%]	0.133 (13.29%)	0.134
M≥6.7	0.119	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.113 (11.33%)	[10.60% 12.10%]	0.112 (11.23%)	0.110
M≥6.8	0.108	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.104 (10.36%)	[9.66% 11.10%]	0.103 (10.31%)	0.101
M≥6.9	0.045	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.043 (4.31%)	[3.86% 4.82%]	0.043 (4.30%)	0.043
M≥7	0.038	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.037 (3.67%)	[3.25% 4.15%]	0.037 (3.67%)	0.037
M≥7.1	0.035	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.033 (3.34%)	[2.94% 3.80%]	0.033 (3.34%)	0.033
M≥7.2	0.023	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.022 (2.24%)	[1.91% 2.62%]	0.022 (2.24%)	0.022
M≥7.3	0.020	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.020 (1.96%)	[1.65% 2.32%]	0.020 (1.96%)	0.019
M≥7.4	0.016	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.016 (1.59%)	[1.31% 1.91%]	0.016 (1.59%)	0.015
M≥7.5	0.013	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.013 (1.29%)	[1.04% 1.59%]	0.013 (1.29%)	0.012
M≥7.6	9.43E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	9.29E-3 (0.93%)	[0.72% 1.19%]	9.29E-3 (0.93%)	8.71E-3
M≥7.7	6.57E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.43E-3 (0.64%)	[0.47% 0.87%]	6.43E-3 (0.64%)	6.14E-3
M≥7.8	5.29E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	[0.37% 0.72%]	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	5.00E-3
M≥7.9	3.29E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	3.00E-3
M≥8	1.00E-3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	1.00E-3
M≥8.1	2.86E-4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	[0.00% 0.12%]	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	2.86E-4
M≥8.2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.3	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.4	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.5	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.7	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.8	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥8.9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000
M≥9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000 (0.00%)	[0.00% 0.07%]	0.000 (0.00%)	0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	1.000 [0.999 - 1.000]	1.000	2.42E-4	4129.85	2.40E-4
1 Day	1.000 [0.999 - 1.000]	1.000	5.79E-3	172.61	5.73E-3
1 Week	1.000 [0.999 - 1.000]	1.000	0.040	25.09	0.039
1 Month	1.000 [0.999 - 1.000]	1.000	0.160	6.25	0.158
1 Year	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	0.880	1.14	0.878
10 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]	1.000	1.000	1	1.000
30 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	1.000	1 *	1.000
100 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	1.000	1 *	1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	0.409 [0.398 - 0.421]	0.409	2.83E-5	14471.62	2.58E-5
1 Day	0.736 [0.725 - 0.746]	0.736	6.78E-4	1084.64	6.19E-4
1 Week	0.847 [0.838 - 0.855]	0.846	4.74E-3	178.65	4.33E-3
1 Month	0.903 [0.896 - 0.910]	0.901	0.020	44.8	0.018
1 Year	0.962 [0.958 - 0.966]	0.951	0.220	4.38	0.202
10 Years	0.998 [0.997 - 0.998]	0.973	0.914	1.09	0.896
30 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	0.999	1 *	0.999
100 Years	1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] *	*	1.000	1 *	1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	0.037 [0.032 - 0.041]	0.037	4.92E-6	7440.24	4.51E-6
1 Day	0.082 [0.076 - 0.089]	0.082	1.18E-4	697.18	1.08E-4
1 Week	0.105 [0.098 - 0.112]	0.104	8.26E-4	127.05	7.57E-4
1 Month	0.125 [0.117 - 0.133]	0.122	3.53E-3	35.37	3.24E-3
1 Year	0.184 [0.176 - 0.193]	0.148	0.042	4.37	0.039
10 Years	0.461 [0.455 - 0.467]	0.173	0.348	1.33	0.327
30 Years	0.762 [0.759 - 0.765] *	*	0.712	1.07 *	0.695
100 Years	0.976 [0.976 - 0.976] *	*	0.971	1.01 *	0.981

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Forecast Duration	UCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]	UCERF3-ETAS Triggered Only	UCERF3-TD	UCERF3-ETAS/TD Gain	UCERF3-TI
1 Hour	1.00E-3 [4.39E-4 - 2.16E-3]	1.00E-3	3.75E-7	2667.03	3.19E-7
1 Day	3.01E-3 [1.92E-3 - 4.68E-3]	3.00E-3	9.00E-6	334.25	7.66E-6
1 Week	3.78E-3 [2.54E-3 - 5.58E-3]	3.71E-3	6.30E-5	59.94	5.36E-5
1 Month	5.27E-3 [3.81E-3 - 7.30E-3]	5.00E-3	2.70E-4	19.51	2.30E-4
1 Year	8.69E-3 [7.17E-3 - 0.011]	5.43E-3	3.28E-3	2.65	2.79E-3
10 Years	0.039 [0.037 - 0.041]	6.00E-3	0.033	1.17	0.028
30 Years	0.107 [0.105 - 0.109] *	*	0.102	1.05 *	0.080
100 Years	0.298 [0.297 - 0.299] *	*	0.293	1.01 *	0.244

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Trigger Rupture Depth Map

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Fault Distances To Triggers

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Section Name	Strike, Dip, Rake	Hypocenter In Polygon?	Surface In Polygon?	Minimum Surface Distance (km)	Minimum Surface Poly Distance (km)	Minimum Hypo Distance (km)	Minimum Hypo Poly Distance (km)
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	122, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	120, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	135, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (Mojave S)	116, 90, 180	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek)	114, 76, 179	false	true	0.000	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	290, 58, 174	false	true	0.073	0.000	N/A	N/A
Mission Creek	275, 65, 174	false	true	0.101	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Gorgonio Pass	281, 60, 100	false	true	0.305	0.000	N/A	N/A
Cucamonga	257, 45, 67	false	true	0.313	0.000	N/A	N/A
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	160, 90, -173	false	true	0.462	0.000	N/A	N/A
Pinto Mtn	87, 90, -3	false	true	0.995	0.000	N/A	N/A
Cleghorn	96, 90, 6	false	true	2.598	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	138, 90, 180	false	true	2.987	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (Lytle Creek connector)	135, 90, 179	false	true	4.621	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	133, 90, 180	false	true	10.449	0.000	N/A	N/A
San Gabriel (Extension)	276, 61, -175	false	false	1.751	1.197	N/A	N/A
Burnt Mtn	175, 67, 175	false	false	3.529	0.532	N/A	N/A
North Frontal (West)	80, 49, 80	false	false	4.698	3.696	N/A	N/A
Fontana (Seismicity)	223, 80, 6	false	false	8.882	6.567	N/A	N/A
Blue Cut	87, 90, 4	false	false	8.890	0.556	N/A	N/A
Joshua Tree (Seismicity)	181, 90, 180	false	false	9.545	2.782	N/A	N/A
Eureka Peak	345, 90, -175	false	false	9.956	0.606	N/A	N/A
Clamshell-Sawpit	244, 50, 88	false	false	12.917	12.886	N/A	N/A
North Frontal (East)	104, 41, 71	false	false	14.230	11.188	N/A	N/A
Sierra Madre	288, 53, 78	false	false	16.583	16.547	N/A	N/A
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	139, 90, 180	false	false	18.587	8.499	N/A	N/A
Elmore Ranch	220, 90, 2	false	false	19.255	9.353	N/A	N/A

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Duration	p0.0 %-ile	p25.0 %-ile	p50.0 %-ile	p75.0 %-ile	p90.0 %-ile	p95.0 %-ile	p97.5 %-ile	p98.0 %-ile	p99.0 %-ile	p99.5 %-ile	p99.9 %-ile	p99.985714 %-ile
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
10 Year

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 172 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.6841428	0.307 (30.69%)	[29.61% 31.78%]	0.392 (39.23%)	[38.08% 40.39%]	0.456 (45.61%)	[44.44% 46.79%]	0.541 (54.10%)	[52.92% 55.27%]	0.612 (61.19%)	[60.03% 62.33%]	0.45685714
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.35642856	0.153 (15.26%)	[14.43% 16.13%]	0.200 (19.97%)	[19.04% 20.93%]	0.236 (23.56%)	[22.57% 24.57%]	0.285 (28.53%)	[27.48% 29.61%]	0.328 (32.79%)	[31.69% 33.90%]	0.23514286
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.13285714	0.042 (4.19%)	[3.73% 4.69%]	0.045 (4.46%)	[3.99% 4.97%]	0.047 (4.69%)	[4.21% 5.21%]	0.050 (5.00%)	[4.51% 5.54%]	0.054 (5.43%)	[4.91% 5.99%]	0.098
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.11528572	0.056 (5.59%)	[5.06% 6.16%]	0.069 (6.87%)	[6.30% 7.50%]	0.079 (7.90%)	[7.28% 8.56%]	0.093 (9.30%)	[8.63% 10.01%]	0.106 (10.56%)	[9.85% 11.31%]	0.07628571
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.10428572	0.051 (5.09%)	[4.59% 5.63%]	0.063 (6.29%)	[5.73% 6.89%]	0.072 (7.23%)	[6.64% 7.87%]	0.085 (8.47%)	[7.83% 9.15%]	0.094 (9.40%)	[8.73% 10.11%]	0.07357143
Pinto Mtn	0.08571429	0.032 (3.19%)	[2.79% 3.63%]	0.044 (4.43%)	[3.96% 4.94%]	0.052 (5.21%)	[4.71% 5.77%]	0.068 (6.83%)	[6.25% 7.45%]	0.083 (8.31%)	[7.68% 8.99%]	0.047857143
Mission Creek	0.07871429	0.031 (3.09%)	[2.70% 3.52%]	0.040 (4.03%)	[3.59% 4.52%]	0.049 (4.91%)	[4.43% 5.45%]	0.063 (6.27%)	[5.72% 6.87%]	0.076 (7.64%)	[7.04% 8.30%]	0.047857143
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.067	0.032 (3.19%)	[2.79% 3.63%]	0.040 (4.00%)	[3.56% 4.49%]	0.047 (4.66%)	[4.18% 5.18%]	0.058 (5.76%)	[5.23% 6.33%]	0.066 (6.57%)	[6.01% 7.18%]	0.045
Imperial	0.06528571	0.031 (3.09%)	[2.70% 3.52%]	0.039 (3.86%)	[3.42% 4.34%]	0.045 (4.51%)	[4.05% 5.03%]	0.056 (5.59%)	[5.06% 6.16%]	0.064 (6.40%)	[5.84% 7.01%]	0.04342857
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev	0.04857143	9.86E-3 (0.99%)	[0.77% 1.25%]	0.015 (1.50%)	[1.23% 1.82%]	0.021 (2.14%)	[1.82% 2.52%]	0.030 (3.03%)	[2.65% 3.46%]	0.042 (4.17%)	[3.72% 4.67%]	0.011
Blue Cut	0.03657143	6.71E-3 (0.67%)	[0.50% 0.90%]	0.013 (1.27%)	[1.03% 1.57%]	0.018 (1.80%)	[1.51% 2.15%]	0.028 (2.79%)	[2.42% 3.21%]	0.035 (3.54%)	[3.13% 4.01%]	0.010428571
Cleghorn	0.027285714	0.010 (1.03%)	[0.81% 1.30%]	0.014 (1.41%)	[1.16% 1.73%]	0.016 (1.64%)	[1.36% 1.98%]	0.021 (2.13%)	[1.81% 2.50%]	0.027 (2.70%)	[2.34% 3.11%]	0.016714286
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.023428572	0.013 (1.31%)	[1.07% 1.62%]	0.015 (1.54%)	[1.27% 1.87%]	0.018 (1.76%)	[1.47% 2.10%]	0.021 (2.06%)	[1.74% 2.42%]	0.023 (2.33%)	[1.99% 2.72%]	0.015428571
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.019	0.010 (1.01%)	[0.80% 1.29%]	0.012 (1.21%)	[0.98% 1.51%]	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.14% 1.71%]	0.017 (1.66%)	[1.38% 1.99%]	0.019 (1.90%)	[1.60% 2.25%]	0.012714285
Burnt Mtn	0.018	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	[0.37% 0.72%]	8.00E-3 (0.80%)	[0.61% 1.05%]	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.84% 1.33%]	0.014 (1.43%)	[1.17% 1.74%]	0.018 (1.80%)	[1.51% 2.15%]	0.006714286
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.017285714	9.29E-3 (0.93%)	[0.72% 1.19%]	0.011 (1.10%)	[0.87% 1.38%]	0.013 (1.26%)	[1.02% 1.55%]	0.015 (1.50%)	[1.23% 1.82%]	0.017 (1.71%)	[1.43% 2.05%]	0.011571429
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.016142856	6.43E-3 (0.64%)	[0.47% 0.87%]	8.57E-3 (0.86%)	[0.66% 1.11%]	0.010 (1.03%)	[0.81% 1.30%]	0.013 (1.27%)	[1.03% 1.57%]	0.016 (1.61%)	[1.34% 1.94%]	0.009142857
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.015428571	8.29E-3 (0.83%)	[0.64% 1.08%]	9.71E-3 (0.97%)	[0.76% 1.24%]	0.011 (1.13%)	[0.90% 1.41%]	0.014 (1.36%)	[1.11% 1.66%]	0.015 (1.54%)	[1.27% 1.87%]	0.01
Cucamonga	0.015	6.43E-3 (0.64%)	[0.47% 0.87%]	8.57E-3 (0.86%)	[0.66% 1.11%]	9.57E-3 (0.96%)	[0.75% 1.22%]	0.012 (1.21%)	[0.98% 1.51%]	0.015 (1.49%)	[1.22% 1.80%]	0.008428572
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.012857143	4.71E-3 (0.47%)	[0.33% 0.67%]	6.57E-3 (0.66%)	[0.49% 0.88%]	8.14E-3 (0.81%)	[0.62% 1.06%]	0.010 (1.04%)	[0.82% 1.32%]	0.013 (1.29%)	[1.04% 1.59%]	0.006
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.012	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	6.00E-3 (0.60%)	[0.44% 0.82%]	7.71E-3 (0.77%)	[0.59% 1.01%]	9.86E-3 (0.99%)	[0.77% 1.25%]	0.012 (1.20%)	[0.96% 1.49%]	0.0054285713
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.011857143	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	6.00E-3 (0.60%)	[0.44% 0.82%]	7.57E-3 (0.76%)	[0.57% 1.00%]	9.71E-3 (0.97%)	[0.76% 1.24%]	0.012 (1.19%)	[0.95% 1.48%]	0.0052857143
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.011714286	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.45% 0.83%]	7.29E-3 (0.73%)	[0.55% 0.96%]	8.14E-3 (0.81%)	[0.62% 1.06%]	0.010 (1.00%)	[0.79% 1.27%]	0.011 (1.14%)	[0.91% 1.43%]	0.0074285716
Cleghorn Lake	0.011285714	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	3.71E-3 (0.37%)	[0.25% 0.55%]	5.43E-3 (0.54%)	[0.39% 0.75%]	7.14E-3 (0.71%)	[0.54% 0.95%]	0.010 (1.04%)	[0.82% 1.32%]	0.0024285715
San Gorgonio Pass	0.010571429	3.86E-3 (0.39%)	[0.26% 0.57%]	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	[0.37% 0.72%]	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	8.57E-3 (0.86%)	[0.66% 1.11%]	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.84% 1.33%]	0.0045714285

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 25 of 149 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.5354286	0.244 (24.43%)	[23.43% 25.46%]	0.315 (31.53%)	[30.44% 32.63%]	0.369 (36.86%)	[35.73% 38.00%]	0.441 (44.11%)	[42.95% 45.29%]	0.505 (50.51%)	[49.34% 51.69%]	0.357
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.26914287	0.116 (11.57%)	[10.84% 12.35%]	0.154 (15.37%)	[14.54% 16.24%]	0.181 (18.06%)	[17.17% 18.98%]	0.219 (21.86%)	[20.90% 22.85%]	0.252 (25.19%)	[24.18% 26.22%]	0.17642857
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.11014286	0.054 (5.43%)	[4.91% 5.99%]	0.067 (6.70%)	[6.13% 7.32%]	0.077 (7.70%)	[7.09% 8.36%]	0.091 (9.06%)	[8.40% 9.76%]	0.103 (10.34%)	[9.64% 11.09%]	0.07342857
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.09385714	0.047 (4.70%)	[4.22% 5.23%]	0.059 (5.87%)	[5.34% 6.45%]	0.068 (6.76%)	[6.19% 7.38%]	0.080 (8.03%)	[7.41% 8.70%]	0.090 (9.04%)	[8.39% 9.74%]	0.06542857
Mission Creek	0.07871429	0.031 (3.09%)	[2.70% 3.52%]	0.040 (4.03%)	[3.59% 4.52%]	0.049 (4.91%)	[4.43% 5.45%]	0.063 (6.27%)	[5.72% 6.87%]	0.076 (7.64%)	[7.04% 8.30%]	0.047857143
Pinto Mtn	0.07628571	0.029 (2.90%)	[2.53% 3.33%]	0.039 (3.94%)	[3.50% 4.43%]	0.047 (4.66%)	[4.18% 5.18%]	0.061 (6.11%)	[5.57% 6.71%]	0.075 (7.49%)	[6.89% 8.13%]	0.043
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.052857142	0.027 (2.69%)	[2.33% 3.10%]	0.033 (3.27%)	[2.87% 3.72%]	0.038 (3.84%)	[3.41% 4.33%]	0.046 (4.63%)	[4.15% 5.15%]	0.052 (5.19%)	[4.68% 5.74%]	0.037428573
Imperial	0.050714284	0.026 (2.56%)	[2.21% 2.96%]	0.031 (3.10%)	[2.71% 3.54%]	0.037 (3.67%)	[3.25% 4.15%]	0.044 (4.43%)	[3.96% 4.94%]	0.050 (4.99%)	[4.49% 5.53%]	0.035714287
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.04857143	0.027 (2.74%)	[2.38% 3.16%]	0.032 (3.19%)	[2.79% 3.63%]	0.034 (3.43%)	[3.02% 3.89%]	0.038 (3.81%)	[3.38% 4.30%]	0.043 (4.27%)	[3.82% 4.78%]	0.03442857
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.023428572	0.013 (1.31%)	[1.07% 1.62%]	0.015 (1.54%)	[1.27% 1.87%]	0.018 (1.76%)	[1.47% 2.10%]	0.021 (2.06%)	[1.74% 2.42%]	0.023 (2.33%)	[1.99% 2.72%]	0.015428571
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.019	0.010 (1.01%)	[0.80% 1.29%]	0.012 (1.21%)	[0.98% 1.51%]	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.14% 1.71%]	0.017 (1.66%)	[1.38% 1.99%]	0.019 (1.90%)	[1.60% 2.25%]	0.012714285
Blue Cut	0.017714286	3.14E-3 (0.31%)	[0.20% 0.48%]	6.57E-3 (0.66%)	[0.49% 0.88%]	9.14E-3 (0.91%)	[0.71% 1.17%]	0.013 (1.34%)	[1.09% 1.65%]	0.017 (1.74%)	[1.46% 2.08%]	0.0047142855
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.017285714	9.29E-3 (0.93%)	[0.72% 1.19%]	0.011 (1.10%)	[0.87% 1.38%]	0.013 (1.26%)	[1.02% 1.55%]	0.015 (1.50%)	[1.23% 1.82%]	0.017 (1.71%)	[1.43% 2.05%]	0.011571429
Burnt Mtn	0.016428571	4.57E-3 (0.46%)	[0.32% 0.65%]	7.14E-3 (0.71%)	[0.54% 0.95%]	9.43E-3 (0.94%)	[0.74% 1.21%]	0.013 (1.30%)	[1.05% 1.60%]	0.016 (1.64%)	[1.36% 1.98%]	0.0062857145
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.015428571	8.29E-3 (0.83%)	[0.64% 1.08%]	9.71E-3 (0.97%)	[0.76% 1.24%]	0.011 (1.13%)	[0.90% 1.41%]	0.014 (1.36%)	[1.11% 1.66%]	0.015 (1.54%)	[1.27% 1.87%]	0.01
Cucamonga	0.014857143	6.29E-3 (0.63%)	[0.46% 0.85%]	8.43E-3 (0.84%)	[0.65% 1.09%]	9.43E-3 (0.94%)	[0.74% 1.21%]	0.012 (1.20%)	[0.96% 1.49%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.21% 1.79%]	0.008285714
Cleghorn	0.013857143	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	7.86E-3 (0.79%)	[0.60% 1.03%]	9.29E-3 (0.93%)	[0.72% 1.19%]	0.012 (1.16%)	[0.93% 1.44%]	0.014 (1.39%)	[1.13% 1.70%]	0.008571428
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.012714285	4.71E-3 (0.47%)	[0.33% 0.67%]	6.57E-3 (0.66%)	[0.49% 0.88%]	8.14E-3 (0.81%)	[0.62% 1.06%]	0.010 (1.04%)	[0.82% 1.32%]	0.013 (1.27%)	[1.03% 1.57%]	0.006
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.012571429	5.00E-3 (0.50%)	[0.35% 0.70%]	6.71E-3 (0.67%)	[0.50% 0.90%]	8.14E-3 (0.81%)	[0.62% 1.06%]	0.010 (1.00%)	[0.79% 1.27%]	0.013 (1.26%)	[1.02% 1.55%]	0.006857143
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.011857143	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	6.00E-3 (0.60%)	[0.44% 0.82%]	7.57E-3 (0.76%)	[0.57% 1.00%]	9.71E-3 (0.97%)	[0.76% 1.24%]	0.012 (1.19%)	[0.95% 1.48%]	0.0052857143
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.011428571	4.29E-3 (0.43%)	[0.29% 0.62%]	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	[0.56% 0.98%]	9.43E-3 (0.94%)	[0.74% 1.21%]	0.011 (1.14%)	[0.91% 1.43%]	0.0052857143
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.011285714	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.45% 0.83%]	7.29E-3 (0.73%)	[0.55% 0.96%]	8.14E-3 (0.81%)	[0.62% 1.06%]	0.010 (1.00%)	[0.79% 1.27%]	0.011 (1.13%)	[0.90% 1.41%]	0.0074285716
San Gorgonio Pass	0.010571429	3.86E-3 (0.39%)	[0.26% 0.57%]	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	[0.37% 0.72%]	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	8.57E-3 (0.86%)	[0.66% 1.11%]	0.011 (1.06%)	[0.84% 1.33%]	0.0045714285
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.007857143	4.29E-3 (0.43%)	[0.29% 0.62%]	5.29E-3 (0.53%)	[0.38% 0.74%]	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	6.86E-3 (0.69%)	[0.51% 0.92%]	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	[0.56% 0.98%]	0.0052857143
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev	0.006714286	1.43E-3 (0.14%)	[0.07% 0.27%]	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	4.00E-3 (0.40%)	[0.27% 0.59%]	4.86E-3 (0.49%)	[0.34% 0.69%]	6.57E-3 (0.66%)	[0.49% 0.88%]	0.002

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 25 of 112 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.09085714	0.045 (4.53%)	[4.06% 5.05%]	0.057 (5.74%)	[5.21% 6.32%]	0.066 (6.64%)	[6.08% 7.26%]	0.079 (7.86%)	[7.24% 8.52%]	0.090 (8.96%)	[8.30% 9.66%]	0.06
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.07514286	0.037 (3.74%)	[3.32% 4.22%]	0.048 (4.76%)	[4.28% 5.29%]	0.055 (5.54%)	[5.02% 6.11%]	0.065 (6.49%)	[5.93% 7.09%]	0.074 (7.37%)	[6.78% 8.01%]	0.051
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.061142858	0.032 (3.23%)	[2.83% 3.68%]	0.040 (4.03%)	[3.59% 4.52%]	0.045 (4.51%)	[4.05% 5.03%]	0.053 (5.26%)	[4.75% 5.81%]	0.060 (5.99%)	[5.45% 6.57%]	0.040857144
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.051	0.029 (2.86%)	[2.49% 3.28%]	0.035 (3.47%)	[3.06% 3.93%]	0.039 (3.93%)	[3.49% 4.42%]	0.045 (4.53%)	[4.06% 5.05%]	0.050 (5.03%)	[4.53% 5.57%]	0.037
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.036142856	0.021 (2.10%)	[1.78% 2.47%]	0.025 (2.46%)	[2.11% 2.85%]	0.028 (2.79%)	[2.42% 3.21%]	0.033 (3.26%)	[2.86% 3.71%]	0.036 (3.57%)	[3.15% 4.04%]	0.027428571
Imperial	0.034571428	0.020 (2.01%)	[1.70% 2.38%]	0.023 (2.34%)	[2.01% 2.73%]	0.027 (2.67%)	[2.31% 3.08%]	0.031 (3.11%)	[2.73% 3.56%]	0.034 (3.43%)	[3.02% 3.89%]	0.026285714
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.03214286	0.019 (1.87%)	[1.57% 2.22%]	0.022 (2.20%)	[1.88% 2.58%]	0.024 (2.43%)	[2.09% 2.82%]	0.028 (2.76%)	[2.39% 3.18%]	0.031 (3.11%)	[2.73% 3.56%]	0.022428572
Pinto Mtn	0.028714286	0.012 (1.16%)	[0.93% 1.44%]	0.016 (1.57%)	[1.30% 1.90%]	0.018 (1.80%)	[1.51% 2.15%]	0.024 (2.37%)	[2.03% 2.76%]	0.029 (2.86%)	[2.49% 3.28%]	0.017142856
Mission Creek	0.025857143	0.011 (1.10%)	[0.87% 1.38%]	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.14% 1.71%]	0.016 (1.64%)	[1.36% 1.98%]	0.022 (2.19%)	[1.86% 2.56%]	0.026 (2.59%)	[2.23% 2.99%]	0.016428571
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.023285715	0.013 (1.31%)	[1.07% 1.62%]	0.015 (1.54%)	[1.27% 1.87%]	0.018 (1.76%)	[1.47% 2.10%]	0.021 (2.06%)	[1.74% 2.42%]	0.023 (2.33%)	[1.99% 2.72%]	0.015428571
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.019	0.010 (1.01%)	[0.80% 1.29%]	0.012 (1.21%)	[0.98% 1.51%]	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.14% 1.71%]	0.017 (1.66%)	[1.38% 1.99%]	0.019 (1.90%)	[1.60% 2.25%]	0.012714285
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.017142856	9.14E-3 (0.91%)	[0.71% 1.17%]	0.011 (1.09%)	[0.86% 1.36%]	0.012 (1.24%)	[1.00% 1.54%]	0.015 (1.49%)	[1.22% 1.80%]	0.017 (1.70%)	[1.42% 2.04%]	0.011428571
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.015428571	8.29E-3 (0.83%)	[0.64% 1.08%]	9.71E-3 (0.97%)	[0.76% 1.24%]	0.011 (1.13%)	[0.90% 1.41%]	0.014 (1.36%)	[1.11% 1.66%]	0.015 (1.54%)	[1.27% 1.87%]	0.01
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.012285714	4.57E-3 (0.46%)	[0.32% 0.65%]	6.43E-3 (0.64%)	[0.47% 0.87%]	8.00E-3 (0.80%)	[0.61% 1.05%]	0.010 (1.01%)	[0.80% 1.29%]	0.012 (1.23%)	[0.99% 1.52%]	0.0057142857
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.011857143	4.71E-3 (0.47%)	[0.33% 0.67%]	6.43E-3 (0.64%)	[0.47% 0.87%]	7.71E-3 (0.77%)	[0.59% 1.01%]	9.43E-3 (0.94%)	[0.74% 1.21%]	0.012 (1.19%)	[0.95% 1.48%]	0.006142857
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.011714286	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	6.00E-3 (0.60%)	[0.44% 0.82%]	7.57E-3 (0.76%)	[0.57% 1.00%]	9.57E-3 (0.96%)	[0.75% 1.22%]	0.012 (1.17%)	[0.94% 1.46%]	0.0052857143
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.011285714	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.45% 0.83%]	7.29E-3 (0.73%)	[0.55% 0.96%]	8.14E-3 (0.81%)	[0.62% 1.06%]	0.010 (1.00%)	[0.79% 1.27%]	0.011 (1.13%)	[0.90% 1.41%]	0.0074285716
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.011285714	4.29E-3 (0.43%)	[0.29% 0.62%]	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	[0.56% 0.98%]	9.43E-3 (0.94%)	[0.74% 1.21%]	0.011 (1.13%)	[0.90% 1.41%]	0.0052857143
Cucamonga	0.009857143	4.71E-3 (0.47%)	[0.33% 0.67%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.45% 0.83%]	6.57E-3 (0.66%)	[0.49% 0.88%]	7.86E-3 (0.79%)	[0.60% 1.03%]	9.71E-3 (0.97%)	[0.76% 1.24%]	0.0054285713
Blue Cut	0.009142857	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.06% 0.25%]	3.14E-3 (0.31%)	[0.20% 0.48%]	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	6.29E-3 (0.63%)	[0.46% 0.85%]	9.14E-3 (0.91%)	[0.71% 1.17%]	0.0024285715
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.0075714285	4.29E-3 (0.43%)	[0.29% 0.62%]	5.29E-3 (0.53%)	[0.38% 0.74%]	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	6.86E-3 (0.69%)	[0.51% 0.92%]	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	[0.56% 0.98%]	0.0052857143
San Jacinto (Clark) rev	0.0054285713	1.86E-3 (0.19%)	[0.10% 0.33%]	2.43E-3 (0.24%)	[0.15% 0.40%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	5.43E-3 (0.54%)	[0.39% 0.75%]	0.0025714287
San Jacinto (Coyote Creek)	0.0052857143	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	3.14E-3 (0.31%)	[0.20% 0.48%]	3.86E-3 (0.39%)	[0.26% 0.57%]	4.57E-3 (0.46%)	[0.32% 0.65%]	5.29E-3 (0.53%)	[0.38% 0.74%]	0.0024285715
Sierra Madre	0.0052857143	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	3.14E-3 (0.31%)	[0.20% 0.48%]	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.24% 0.54%]	4.14E-3 (0.41%)	[0.28% 0.60%]	5.00E-3 (0.50%)	[0.35% 0.70%]	0.0027142856
Calico-Hidalgo	0.004857143	2.29E-3 (0.23%)	[0.14% 0.38%]	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	4.29E-3 (0.43%)	[0.29% 0.62%]	4.86E-3 (0.49%)	[0.34% 0.69%]	0.0025714287

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 83 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.029142857	0.016 (1.64%)	[1.36% 1.98%]	0.019 (1.93%)	[1.63% 2.29%]	0.022 (2.20%)	[1.88% 2.58%]	0.026 (2.60%)	[2.25% 3.01%]	0.029 (2.87%)	[2.50% 3.30%]	0.020714285
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.027142856	0.014 (1.44%)	[1.18% 1.76%]	0.018 (1.77%)	[1.48% 2.12%]	0.021 (2.09%)	[1.77% 2.46%]	0.024 (2.44%)	[2.10% 2.84%]	0.027 (2.70%)	[2.34% 3.11%]	0.019857142
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.025142858	0.014 (1.36%)	[1.11% 1.66%]	0.017 (1.66%)	[1.38% 1.99%]	0.020 (1.96%)	[1.65% 2.32%]	0.023 (2.27%)	[1.94% 2.66%]	0.025 (2.51%)	[2.17% 2.92%]	0.018714286
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.024857143	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.14% 1.71%]	0.017 (1.66%)	[1.38% 1.99%]	0.019 (1.86%)	[1.56% 2.21%]	0.022 (2.17%)	[1.85% 2.55%]	0.025 (2.46%)	[2.11% 2.85%]	0.016857143
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.024142858	0.014 (1.37%)	[1.12% 1.68%]	0.016 (1.61%)	[1.34% 1.94%]	0.018 (1.83%)	[1.53% 2.18%]	0.021 (2.13%)	[1.81% 2.50%]	0.024 (2.41%)	[2.07% 2.81%]	0.016285714
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.022857143	0.013 (1.29%)	[1.04% 1.59%]	0.015 (1.50%)	[1.23% 1.82%]	0.017 (1.71%)	[1.43% 2.05%]	0.020 (2.01%)	[1.70% 2.38%]	0.023 (2.29%)	[1.95% 2.67%]	0.015142857
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.02157143	0.012 (1.19%)	[0.95% 1.48%]	0.014 (1.40%)	[1.14% 1.71%]	0.017 (1.67%)	[1.39% 2.01%]	0.020 (1.97%)	[1.66% 2.33%]	0.022 (2.16%)	[1.84% 2.53%]	0.016571429
Imperial	0.020428572	0.011 (1.10%)	[0.87% 1.38%]	0.013 (1.30%)	[1.05% 1.60%]	0.016 (1.57%)	[1.30% 1.90%]	0.019 (1.86%)	[1.56% 2.21%]	0.020 (2.04%)	[1.73% 2.41%]	0.015571428
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.018857142	0.010 (1.01%)	[0.80% 1.29%]	0.012 (1.20%)	[0.96% 1.49%]	0.014 (1.39%)	[1.13% 1.70%]	0.016 (1.64%)	[1.36% 1.98%]	0.019 (1.89%)	[1.59% 2.24%]	0.012714285
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.016857143	9.00E-3 (0.90%)	[0.70% 1.16%]	0.011 (1.07%)	[0.85% 1.35%]	0.012 (1.23%)	[0.99% 1.52%]	0.015 (1.47%)	[1.21% 1.79%]	0.017 (1.69%)	[1.40% 2.02%]	0.011285714
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.015142857	8.14E-3 (0.81%)	[0.62% 1.06%]	9.43E-3 (0.94%)	[0.74% 1.21%]	0.011 (1.10%)	[0.87% 1.38%]	0.013 (1.33%)	[1.08% 1.63%]	0.015 (1.51%)	[1.25% 1.84%]	0.009857143
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.012	4.57E-3 (0.46%)	[0.32% 0.65%]	6.43E-3 (0.64%)	[0.47% 0.87%]	8.00E-3 (0.80%)	[0.61% 1.05%]	0.010 (1.00%)	[0.79% 1.27%]	0.012 (1.20%)	[0.96% 1.49%]	0.0055714287
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.011571429	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	6.00E-3 (0.60%)	[0.44% 0.82%]	7.57E-3 (0.76%)	[0.57% 1.00%]	9.57E-3 (0.96%)	[0.75% 1.22%]	0.012 (1.16%)	[0.93% 1.44%]	0.0052857143
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.011285714	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.45% 0.83%]	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	[0.56% 0.98%]	9.00E-3 (0.90%)	[0.70% 1.16%]	0.011 (1.13%)	[0.90% 1.41%]	0.0057142857
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.011142857	6.14E-3 (0.61%)	[0.45% 0.83%]	7.14E-3 (0.71%)	[0.54% 0.95%]	8.00E-3 (0.80%)	[0.61% 1.05%]	9.86E-3 (0.99%)	[0.77% 1.25%]	0.011 (1.11%)	[0.89% 1.40%]	0.0074285716
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.011142857	4.29E-3 (0.43%)	[0.29% 0.62%]	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	7.43E-3 (0.74%)	[0.56% 0.98%]	9.29E-3 (0.93%)	[0.72% 1.19%]	0.011 (1.11%)	[0.89% 1.40%]	0.0052857143
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.007285714	4.29E-3 (0.43%)	[0.29% 0.62%]	5.14E-3 (0.51%)	[0.37% 0.72%]	5.71E-3 (0.57%)	[0.41% 0.79%]	6.71E-3 (0.67%)	[0.50% 0.90%]	7.29E-3 (0.73%)	[0.55% 0.96%]	0.0052857143
Cucamonga	0.0065714284	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	4.71E-3 (0.47%)	[0.33% 0.67%]	5.57E-3 (0.56%)	[0.40% 0.77%]	6.57E-3 (0.66%)	[0.49% 0.88%]	0.0035714286
San Jacinto (Clark) rev	0.0052857143	1.86E-3 (0.19%)	[0.10% 0.33%]	2.43E-3 (0.24%)	[0.15% 0.40%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	4.29E-3 (0.43%)	[0.29% 0.62%]	5.29E-3 (0.53%)	[0.38% 0.74%]	0.0025714287
San Jacinto (Coyote Creek)	0.0052857143	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	3.14E-3 (0.31%)	[0.20% 0.48%]	3.86E-3 (0.39%)	[0.26% 0.57%]	4.57E-3 (0.46%)	[0.32% 0.65%]	5.29E-3 (0.53%)	[0.38% 0.74%]	0.0024285715
Pinto Mtn	0.0044285716	2.29E-3 (0.23%)	[0.14% 0.38%]	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	4.14E-3 (0.41%)	[0.28% 0.60%]	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	0.0027142856
San Jacinto (Borrego)	0.004142857	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	[0.19% 0.47%]	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.24% 0.54%]	4.14E-3 (0.41%)	[0.28% 0.60%]	0.0018571429
Calico-Hidalgo	0.004	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	3.71E-3 (0.37%)	[0.25% 0.55%]	4.00E-3 (0.40%)	[0.27% 0.59%]	0.0022857143
Sierra Madre	0.0038571428	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	2.71E-3 (0.27%)	[0.17% 0.43%]	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	3.43E-3 (0.34%)	[0.22% 0.52%]	3.86E-3 (0.39%)	[0.26% 0.57%]	0.0022857143
San Gorgonio Pass	0.0032857142	1.71E-3 (0.17%)	[0.09% 0.31%]	1.86E-3 (0.19%)	[0.10% 0.33%]	2.29E-3 (0.23%)	[0.14% 0.38%]	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	[0.19% 0.47%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	0.0022857143

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 48 with matching ruptures shown

Parent Name	Triggered 10 Year Mean Count	Triggered 1 Day Prob	Triggered 1 Day 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Week Prob	Triggered 1 Week 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Month Prob	Triggered 1 Month 95% Conf	Triggered 1 Year Prob	Triggered 1 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Prob	Triggered 10 Year 95% Conf	Triggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)	0.005857143	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.24% 0.54%]	4.86E-3 (0.49%)	[0.34% 0.69%]	5.29E-3 (0.53%)	[0.38% 0.74%]	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	0.004142857
San Andreas (Mojave S)	0.005857143	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.24% 0.54%]	4.86E-3 (0.49%)	[0.34% 0.69%]	5.29E-3 (0.53%)	[0.38% 0.74%]	5.86E-3 (0.59%)	[0.43% 0.80%]	0.004142857
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)	0.0055714287	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	4.57E-3 (0.46%)	[0.32% 0.65%]	5.00E-3 (0.50%)	[0.35% 0.70%]	5.57E-3 (0.56%)	[0.40% 0.77%]	0.0038571428
San Andreas (Big Bend)	0.0054285713	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	3.43E-3 (0.34%)	[0.22% 0.52%]	4.57E-3 (0.46%)	[0.32% 0.65%]	5.00E-3 (0.50%)	[0.35% 0.70%]	5.43E-3 (0.54%)	[0.39% 0.75%]	0.0037142858
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev	0.0054285713	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	3.43E-3 (0.34%)	[0.22% 0.52%]	4.57E-3 (0.46%)	[0.32% 0.65%]	5.00E-3 (0.50%)	[0.35% 0.70%]	5.43E-3 (0.54%)	[0.39% 0.75%]	0.0037142858
San Andreas (Cholame) rev	0.0052857143	2.71E-3 (0.27%)	[0.17% 0.43%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	4.43E-3 (0.44%)	[0.31% 0.64%]	4.86E-3 (0.49%)	[0.34% 0.69%]	5.29E-3 (0.53%)	[0.38% 0.74%]	0.0035714286
San Andreas (Parkfield)	0.004285714	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	2.71E-3 (0.27%)	[0.17% 0.43%]	3.43E-3 (0.34%)	[0.22% 0.52%]	3.86E-3 (0.39%)	[0.26% 0.57%]	4.29E-3 (0.43%)	[0.29% 0.62%]	0.003
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM	0.0035714286	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	[0.19% 0.47%]	3.29E-3 (0.33%)	[0.21% 0.50%]	3.57E-3 (0.36%)	[0.24% 0.54%]	0.0028571428
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)	0.003	1.57E-3 (0.16%)	[0.08% 0.29%]	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	2.86E-3 (0.29%)	[0.18% 0.45%]	3.00E-3 (0.30%)	[0.19% 0.47%]	0.0022857143
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)	0.0027142856	1.57E-3 (0.16%)	[0.08% 0.29%]	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	2.43E-3 (0.24%)	[0.15% 0.40%]	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	2.71E-3 (0.27%)	[0.17% 0.43%]	0.002
San Jacinto (Anza) rev	0.0025714287	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.06% 0.25%]	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	0.0015714286
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)	0.0025714287	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.06% 0.25%]	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	0.0015714286
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev	0.0025714287	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.06% 0.25%]	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	0.0015714286
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)	0.0025714287	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.06% 0.25%]	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	2.57E-3 (0.26%)	[0.16% 0.41%]	0.0015714286
San Andreas (Coachella) rev	0.0022857143	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.06% 0.25%]	1.71E-3 (0.17%)	[0.09% 0.31%]	2.00E-3 (0.20%)	[0.11% 0.34%]	2.14E-3 (0.21%)	[0.12% 0.36%]	2.29E-3 (0.23%)	[0.14% 0.38%]	0.0015714286
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 1	0.0014285714	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.06% 0.25%]	1.43E-3 (0.14%)	[0.07% 0.27%]	1.43E-3 (0.14%)	[0.07% 0.27%]	0.0011428571
San Jacinto (Clark) rev	0.0012857143	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	[0.00% 0.12%]	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	[0.00% 0.12%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.06% 0.25%]	5.7142857E-4
San Jacinto (Coyote Creek)	0.0012857143	7.14E-4 (0.07%)	[0.03% 0.18%]	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.14E-3 (0.11%)	[0.05% 0.23%]	1.14E-3 (0.11%)	[0.05% 0.23%]	1.29E-3 (0.13%)	[0.06% 0.25%]	0.001
Imperial	0.0011428571	5.71E-4 (0.06%)	[0.02% 0.16%]	7.14E-4 (0.07%)	[0.03% 0.18%]	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	1.14E-3 (0.11%)	[0.05% 0.23%]	1.14E-3 (0.11%)	[0.05% 0.23%]	8.5714285E-4
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM	0.0011428571	7.14E-4 (0.07%)	[0.03% 0.18%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	1.14E-3 (0.11%)	[0.05% 0.23%]	1.14E-3 (0.11%)	[0.05% 0.23%]	1.14E-3 (0.11%)	[0.05% 0.23%]	0.001
San Jacinto (Lytle Creek connector)	0.001	4.29E-4 (0.04%)	[0.01% 0.14%]	5.71E-4 (0.06%)	[0.02% 0.16%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	1.00E-3 (0.10%)	[0.04% 0.22%]	5.7142857E-4
Calaveras (So) - Paicines extension 2011 CFM	8.5714285E-4	4.29E-4 (0.04%)	[0.01% 0.14%]	7.14E-4 (0.07%)	[0.03% 0.18%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	7.142857E-4
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM	8.5714285E-4	5.71E-4 (0.06%)	[0.02% 0.16%]	5.71E-4 (0.06%)	[0.02% 0.16%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	8.5714285E-4
San Jacinto (Borrego)	8.5714285E-4	7.14E-4 (0.07%)	[0.03% 0.18%]	7.14E-4 (0.07%)	[0.03% 0.18%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	8.57E-4 (0.09%)	[0.03% 0.20%]	7.142857E-4
Calaveras (So) 2011 CFM	5.7142857E-4	2.86E-4 (0.03%)	[0.00% 0.12%]	4.29E-4 (0.04%)	[0.01% 0.14%]	5.71E-4 (0.06%)	[0.02% 0.16%]	5.71E-4 (0.06%)	[0.02% 0.16%]	5.71E-4 (0.06%)	[0.02% 0.16%]	5.7142857E-4

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week	1 Month	1 Year	10 Year

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1778624347993,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1778700036355,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "/home/scecuser/target/stampede3-skx-scenario-fss199642-n14-s100000-t1778624347993",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "fssIndex": 199642
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.29,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-time 1778624347993 --fss-index 199642 --nodes 14 --num-simulations 100000 --hpc-site TACC_STAMPEDE3 --output-dir /work2/10177/bhatthal/stampede3/ucerf3/u3etas_sim/scenarios/stampede3-skx-scenario-fss199642-n14-s100000-t1778624347993",
  "configTime": 1778700036355
}

FSS Rupture 199642, M7.801467, Start 2026/05/12, 10 yr Results

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

Magnitude Number Distribution

10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

Hazard Change Over Time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

Trigger Rupture Depth Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

Section Participation

Section Participation Plots

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

Gridded Nucleation

JSON Input File