FSS Rupture 201887, M7.8, Start 2026/10/15, 1 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6 Results

Table Of Contents

• Probabilities Summary Table
• Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution
• Hazard Change Over Time
  • M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time
  • M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time
  • M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time
  • M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time
• Trigger Rupture Fault Map
• Trigger Rupture Depth Map
• Fault Distances To Triggers
• Individual Simulated Catalog Maps
• Section Participation
  • Section Participation Plots
  • Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table
  • M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥8 Parent Sections Table
• Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions
• Gridded Nucleation
• JSON Input File

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude Number Distribution

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1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 500000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 1 yr Probability (thin red line): 1 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 500000 catalogs

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 500000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 1 mo Probability (thin red line): 1 month probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 mo Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 500000 catalogs

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 500000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 1 wk Probability (thin red line): 1 week probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 wk Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 500000 catalogs

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 500000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 1 d Probability (thin red line): 1 day probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 d Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 500000 catalogs

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 500000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 500000 catalogs
• 1 hr Probability (thin red line): 1 hour probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 hr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 500000 catalogs

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Trigger Rupture Depth Map

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Fault Distances To Triggers

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Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Duration	p0.0 %-ile	p25.0 %-ile	p50.0 %-ile	p75.0 %-ile	p90.0 %-ile	p95.0 %-ile	p97.5 %-ile	p98.0 %-ile	p99.0 %-ile	p99.5 %-ile	p99.9 %-ile	p99.9998 %-ile
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	1 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 291 with matching ruptures shown

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 276 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 227 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 159 with matching ruptures shown

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 25 of 54 with matching ruptures shown

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week	1 Month	1 Year

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 500000,
  "duration": 1.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1792084500000,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1779919217729,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "FSS Rupture 201887, M7.8, Start 2026/10/15, 1 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2026_05_27-FSS_Rupture_201887_M7p8_Start_2026_10_15_1_yr_kCOV_1p5_MaxPtSrcM_6",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "fssIndex": 201887,
      "mag": 7.8
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.29,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-time 1792084500000 --fss-index 201887 --magnitude 7.8 --num-simulations 500000 --duration-years 1 --hpc-site USC_CARC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6",
  "configTime": 1779919217729
}